We’re down to the final four!
And after 25 home-and-away rounds and two weeks of finals, in the most even, deep season of competitors we’ve ever seen, 2025 comes down to … the same four teams it always is.
Yep, we’ve got the last three premiers in Brisbane, Collingwood and Geelong, plus plucky upstarts Hawthorn a full decade after their most recent flag. All up, they account for 44 preliminary final spots in the last 25 years. Every single other team combined has 56.
And as an extra kick in the teeth? These four were the four premiership favourites at the start of the year. We’ve ended up right where we expected to be!
Here’s what we learned from the semi finals.
2025 was still a success for the Crows
Had you offered any Adelaide supporter a semi final heading into the season, they’d have shaken your hand off.
Had you asked any neutral supporter whether a Crows semi final would make for a successful year, the answer would have been equally emphatic.
It’s important for everyone at the Crows, from supporters to players to coaching staff, to keep that in mind, because the disappointment of losing back-to-back home finals and becoming the first minor premier in 42 years to bow out of September in straight sets does funny things to the mind.
We’ll never know just how big a hole Izak Rankine’s absence left, but it was a disastrous blow on finals eve for a number of reasons. The Crows dearly missed his class, skill, speed, goal nous and ability to own the big moments, especially when they couldn’t buy a ground ball inside 50 against Collingwood in the qualifying final. I’m willing to bet the destabilising influence of having a star player embroiled in a homophobic slur scandal on finals eve was a significant blow, too, because Adelaide played both their matches like a team doubting how good they were all year.
There are fixes to be made for the Crows, without a doubt. Ball movement reliant on contested marks down the line and a slow, methodical approach doesn’t quite cut it in the pressure-cooker of finals. Should Taylor Walker retire, there will be a question of whether to persist with the three-tall forward line that failed in September, and even if he doesn’t, neither he nor Darcy Fogarty loom as automatic selections for Round 1 next year.
A gun midfielder would be incredibly handy – I’d be surprised if the Crows don’t have a crack at Zach Merrett this off-season, while even a post-prime Clayton Oliver would help. Jordan Dawson is a superstar, but his quiet finals series proved just how thin their stocks are behind him, with Jake Soligo and Sam Berry found wanting on the biggest stage. Soligo will be better for the experience; Berry probably isn’t the player a properly good team has as a front line on-baller.
18 wins is an exceptional year in any circumstances, and the Crows’ finals inexperience, plus the plethora of other legitimate contenders, and of course the Rankine absence, were all bound to make September difficult. Indeed, few tipped them for the flag even two weeks ago despite their minor premiership.
The comparison to Brisbane in 2019 is easy to make, and the benefit of hindsight shows that the Lions needed a few years of failing in finals before becoming the team they are now.
The future remains incredibly bright for the Crows – provided they don’t do what they did at the end of 2017, and panic in a bid to try and improve while neglecting to appreciate what they already have.
… and the Suns
The end to Gold Coast’s season comes with far less despair and disappointment than for the Crows – winning a final and getting a step further than anyone expected in September tends to do that.
But still, Suns players – and certainly Damien Hardwick – might end 2025 feeling even more miffed about that final-round loss to Port Adelaide, where victory would have secured them a top-four spot and at least one home final.
15 wins is a tremendous season in anyone’s book, and both breaking their finals duck and winning one in the same September is a huge shot in the arm for everyone at the club, and vindication for the bold move to sign Hardwick two years ago.
The next challenge is backing up, and making the incremental improvements that turn a good team into a great, and potentially premiership-winning, one.
Some of that will come from within – Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell are only getting better, Jed Walter and Ethan Read will benefit from another pre-season, particularly Walter, and the entire squad will be galvanised by the tantalising taste of September success. With Zeke Uwland on the way as another Academy gun in the draft, it would be a shock to see them fall away.
Would going after Charlie Curnow in the off-season, who is very much in play, be the right move for the short-term, though, given Walter and Read aren’t the finished article yet? Certainly, the star Blue makes them better for 2026, and would give them more depth to cover for positional moves like Harris Andrews shutting Ben King down after quarter time of the semi final, which rendered the Suns all but impotent in attack.
The Suns can look to Hawthorn for inspiration. Like them, the Hawks last year broke a lengthy finals drought, had a superb elimination final win, and had their season ended at the semi final change. They identified issues in defence, brought in Josh Battle and Tom Barrass, and this season have gone at least a step further.
It’s a fascinating off-season for a team that can’t afford to get ahead of itself … yet seems destined for a bright and bountiful future. As long as they don’t stuff it up this summer, anything’s possible in 2026.
Noah Anderson celebrates a goal. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
This September isn’t living up to the hype
I wrote last week, after a stone cold classic elimination final between Gold Coast and Fremantle and a hugely entertaining clash between Hawthorn and GWS, that we were in store for a September for the ages.
But I’ve got to say, just a week on from that, I’m starting to feel a little … underwhelmed.
Part of the trade-off of as boring a home-and-away season as we’ve had in years, in which half the competition was all but cooked midway through, was that we were supposed to see as even a group of finalists as we’d ever seen before.
That has proven the case – Hawthorn winning their way through to at least a preliminary final from eighth the defining example – but so far, of six games, I’d only class two in the ‘great’ category – those two elimination finals last week.
This weekend’s semi finals have both been fizzers: Brisbane were far too good for Gold Coast from about halfway through the second quarter onwards, while it was at a similar time on Friday night that the Hawks proved they were a cut above Adelaide, this September’s true disappointment.
The Crows are the crux of the problem – for any top-four team, never mind a minor premier, they’ve fired precious few shots in back-to-back defeats on home soil, which loomed as the toughest task in footy this September.
Add to that two of the season’s most exciting dark horses in GWS and Fremantle bowed out in the first week – as amazing as the Suns’ win over the Dockers was last week, I’m adamant Freo would have put up more of a fight against the Lions at the Gabba, and had more weapons to take the fight to the Lions in midfield, in spite of the thrashing they copped last time out against the reigning premiers.
Perhaps the key issue is that the comp is too even – when equally matched teams lock horns, one being even five per cent off their game is tantamount to handing the game to the other.
The Crows twice, the Lions in their qualifying final and the Suns on Saturday night have all been substantially below their best, and been made to pay the price.
Fingers crossed all four of our preliminary finalists can bring their A game, because if ever a season needed saving with an epic final three games, it’s this one.
Jai Newcombe celebrates a goal. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The two choices Dons have with Zach Merrett – and neither are good
The Zach Merrett trade situation really needs a Ron Burgundy clip.
This time a week ago, Merrett was a mildly success-hungry Essendon captain exploring his options.
Now, he’s going nuclear in a bid to force the Bombers to tear up his contract and public enemy number one among fans who have adored him for more than a decade, to the point where every single act of his on-field and off in the last year is now a stick to beat him with.
Wanted lists to be cut to give star players a pay rise at the start of the year? Typical money-grubbing prick. Didn’t want to be chaired off after his 250th game? Clearly his teammates hate him and always have.
It’s that emotion, plus the fact the club he’s most strongly linked to is arch nemesis Hawthorn, that makes dealing with this situation, both for supporters and the Bombers powerbrokers themselves, fraught with difficulty.
And makes dealing with this drama with any nuance tricky – for me, it’s entirely possible to respect Merrett’s desperation for success, acknowledge that the Bombers’ list build and future plans are probably aimed at the generation after his to rise up the ladder, and think him a bit of a dick for directly meeting with a rival coach while captain and under contract and not being willing to at least fulfil his commitment to the club. If he leaves, it will be with far less acclaim and respect than Liam Baker, Shai Bolton and Daniel Rioli when they departed Richmond 12 months ago, all of whom ensured the Tigers got top dollar for parting with them.
Literally any potential trade is getting both sides up in arms – I saw one suggestion of Merrett for Calsher Dear, Cam McKenzie and a second-rounder get laughed at by Essendon fans for being unders and Hawks supporters for being far too steep. You just can’t win.
The problem for the Bombers is that, despite Merrett being contracted for two more years, the cards they hold have their worth dependent on the captain’s attitude. Sure, they can keep him, but does that risk disgruntling the rest of the playing group, two of which have spoken publicly of their disappointment in their captain’s conduct?
The other choice is no better – trying to broker a trade with a team that knows Merrett wants to come there, knows that staying a Bomber can cause them all sorts of problems, and as such doesn’t need to break the bank in a way they might have expected to even a week ago. To the point where a fringe midfielder like McKenzie and impressive but replaceable key forward like Dear are seen by many as not worth parting with to secure one of the game’s best on-ballers who should still have at least two or three years of elite footy in him.
The Bombers have talked a big game in their adamant stance that Merrett won’t be traded under any circumstances. Maybe that decides things – everyone from the president to the coach would look weak if they don’t hold him to his contract, especially with his trade value dwindling with every decision he makes that distances himself from the club where he will likely claim a sixth best and fairest in a month’s time, on a night he seems unlikely to attend.
It’s a sad situation – and you can pretty much guarantee that right up until the trade period ends in a month’s time, this can only get uglier for everyone involved.
Zach Merrett reacts to another Essendon loss. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
It’s time to make a deal with the devil on Hawthorn
Okay, hear me out.
This year’s crop of preliminary finalists is about as unappealing a set of options for neutral supporters as we have ever seen.
There’s no plucky underdog questing to end a long premiership drought, nor even a popular champion seeking to end their career with a well-deserved flag (unless you count Oscar McInerney or Max Holmes, I guess?)
Thanks to everything from the inequities of the draft to a seemingly unlimited salary cap to just being Collingwood, there are legitimate reasons to be sick of all four of the Magpies, Geelong, Brisbane and Hawthorn.
Especially if you’re Victorian, it’s a far, far worse end to the year than last season, when legitimate fears of a Pies-Carlton-Essendon preliminary final trio faded to leave the Cats and three non-Vic teams battling it out. Heaven.
So with that in mind, it might be time to make a deal with the devil on the least unappealing of them all … the Hawks.
A ten-year premiership wait is so short it would be embarrassing to call it a drought – but it is better than the other three, the 2022, 2023 and 2024 premiers.
In addition, the Hawks have, I would argue, undergone a conventional rebuild from the bottom, rather than making the most of their advantages to cut corners and remain competitive, as the others have done.
That’s not meant to criticise – but when you consider Geelong’s ability to acquire top-line talent from rival clubs, Brisbane’s Academy and father-son leg-ups in recent years (imagine being a North Melbourne or West Coast supporter and watching Will Ashcroft be best-afield in another final knowing you should have had him) and the Magpies’ Daicos and Darcy Moore-inspired run to the last four, Hawthorn’s journey from the bottom up to here is much more palatable.
Since their triple-premiership run from 2013-2015, the Hawks have done their time at the bottom, bid farewell to Alastair Clarkson, boldly traded out Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara to usher in a new midfield, added key pieces from other clubs with not a single A-grader among them, and produced a rebuild right out of the footy copybook.
A midfielder recruited from Box Hill via the mid-season draft four years ago has been best afield in all four finals that he’s played; their star ruckman was third in line at Fremantle; their best forward is a 33-year old not in the best team at the start of the year; they traded up the draft order because they had faith in Josh Weddle becoming the player he has proved to be.
Of players recruited under Sam Mitchell, Karl Amon, Jack Ginnivan, Massimo D’Ambrosio, Josh Battle and Tom Barrass are hardly A-graders, yet all have filled roles superbly, with Battle even a shock All-Australian a few weeks ago and playing like it this September. They’re hardly Bailey Smith, Josh Dunkley or Dan Houston-type boom recruits which their fellow preliminary finalists have had in abundance in recent years.
It’s refreshing to see a team go from the lower reaches of the ladder to near the top via hyper-competence and shrewd list management rather than getting an Ashcroft or Daicos-style helping hand; and it’s why I’m prepared to offer the Hawks a one-year grace period before they go back to being insufferably arrogant perpetual winners once again.
The prospect of another premiership for the Hawks is hardly an appealing one. But it’s worth noting that a week ago, I asked my dad if he’d take a Hawthorn flag if offered that rather than risk Collingwood or Geelong claiming it, and he didn’t hesitate to accept the deal.
Plus, the Hawks would become a premier from eighth, which is an exceptionally funny thing to happen.
Random Thoughts
– That’s a rubbish way for Luke Breust’s career to end. Poor bloke.
– He was far from the biggest issue for the Crows this finals series … but I really, really thought Dan Curtin was going to have a serious say on September.
– Having watched Josh Battle closely the last two weeks, I’m willing to accept maybe he was an All-Australian calibre player all along.
– Josh Dunkley getting 18 tackles in a final is obscene. No secret the Lions have made two straight grand finals and at least a prelim since he came on board.
– I reckon each preliminary finalist got their biggest nightmare opponent. Bring on next weekend!