(Note: Reid Research did not run any public polls between November 2023 and March 2025.)
Former National leaders, however, have received much worse scores while in opposition. Judith Collins recorded a net rating as low as -37.9 in mid-2020 and Simon Bridges dropped to -39 in mid-2019.
Hipkins fared better than Luxon in the latest poll, though he also continued on a downward trend.
While 38.8% approved of his performance as opposition leader (down 0.3 points), 35.8% disapproved (up 1.8 points), giving him a net rating of just three.
That too is his lowest since taking the Labour leadership, across four Reid Research polls.
Would a new leader make the difference?
When asked if a change of leadership would improve National’s chances at next year’s election, 41.9% said no, and 33.4% were unsure.
Only a quarter (24.7%) thought it would put National in a better position to win.
Among those respondents, Erica Stanford (8.2%), Nicola Willis (7.9%) and Chris Bishop (7.2%) were floated as potential successors.
But the largest share – 43.3% – did not have an alternative National MP in mind.
The numbers shook down similarly on the left side of the ledger.
Just 24.9% thought a new leader would give the Labour Party a boost, compared with 42.9% who said it would not. Another 32.2% did not know.
Kieran McAnulty (11.8%) and Carmel Sepuloni (5.3%) were the most commonly suggested replacements, though nearly 60% could not name anyone.
Going nowhere
Speaking to RNZ, Luxon dismissed any suggestion that another member of his caucus could be doing a better job than him.
“We’ve got a great team doing a great job, and that’s what we’re focused on,” he said.
“My job is to make sure I get the best out of that whole team.”
Hipkins was equally dismissive: “I’m absolutely confident that I’ll be leading the Labour Party into the next election, and I intend to win it.”
Hipkins pointed to RNZ-Reid Research’s preferred prime minister ratings, where he holds a narrow lead over Luxon, “very unusual” for an opposition leader mid-term.
On that measure, Hipkins dipped slightly to 23% (down 0.2), while Luxon edged up to 19.6% (up 0.8).
New Zealand First’s Winston Peters was steady on 8.9%, followed by Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick (6.5%) and Act’s David Seymour (5.8%).
This poll of 1000 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure a representative cross-section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between September 4-12, 2025 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level.