Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today other than Heretaunga Building Society cutting its 2 year fixed rate by -10 bps. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NOT POSITIVE
ASB survey shows investor confidence at its lowest level for nearly five years. The June-quarter survey shows optimism at its lowest ebb since the Covid pandemic – and before that down to GFC levels.

NEW LIVE TRACKER OF PROSPERITY
The same Massey team that runs its GDPLive tool (real-time tracking of high-frequency activity data) has expanded to include more social data, allowing it to track ‘prosperity’ in real time, that at least is the promise. It scores data on the basis that zero reflects the lowest level of prosperity observed since 2007, while a score close to 100 reflects the highest level observed over the same period. Currently we are at 76.9. They define ‘prosperity’ as where individuals and communities can flourish, “accessing opportunities for success and fulfillment across multiple dimensions of life”. They measure it by combining eight key dimensions: Education, Health, Income, Housing, Employment, Safety, Social Wellbeing, and Work-Life Balance.

RETIRING
Retirement Commissioner Jane Wrightson has said she will conclude her second term in early 2026 and not seek reappointment.

IMPROVING AFFORDABILITY
Our monthly median multiple tracking has been updated for August for all significant urban areas. Nationally this multiple is down to 6.2x, the lowest since 2019. This metric peaked at 9.3x in November 2021.(The median multiple metric relates median house prices to gross household incomes. As such it ignores income taxes, and interest rates. So it is just a crude measure, one not very relevant for aspiring home buyers. We will be releasing our home loan affordability updates soon who do account for both income tax levels and interest rates. They also focus on FHBs and first step buyers.)

NZX50 HAVING A DOWN DAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.5% its Monday session so far. It is also now down -0.4% over the past five working days. But it is up +0.7% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% today so far. Vital Healthcare, Investore, Air NZ and Mercury rise but EBOS, Infratil, Summerset and Freightways fall.

ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIFE
Business Canterbury is talking up its August survey of local business saying “its not all doom and gloom”. But the main indicators turning up are all expectations that things will be better in the future, rather than seeing improvements now. In fact the same survey shows “32% think the Government is managing the economy better than 12 months ago”. Does that mean that Canterbury businesses think the government needs to change? Of just that they can ignore a government they think is not improving?

CHINA HOLDS
The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged at record lows for the fourth straight month today, as expected. The 1-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the 5-year benchmark stayed at 3.5%.

HONG KONG GETS READY TO SHUT DOWN
Hong Kong authorities are bracing for “serious threats” posed by the looming Super Typhoon Ragasa, which is expected to bring hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 220 km/h over the next few days, potentially breaking a record set during Saola in 2023. Their airport is likely to close, along with much else including their stock market.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today in the short durations, but bfirmish longer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -10 bps at 2.84% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from this morning at 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.87%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.26%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -3 bps, at 4.20% at the end of Friday trade. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from this morning, still at 4.11%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now down -0.6% in Monday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.5%. Hong Kong however is down -0.9% with Shanghai unchanged. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street futures trading suggests the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.8%.

OIL SOFT
The oil price in the US is unmoved from this morning at just over US$62.50/bbl but the international Brent price is up +50 USc at US$67/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been a few trades reported today, and the prices are softish at $56.75. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up sharply to a new record high, now at US$3691/oz, up +US$7 from this morning although a few hours ago it breached US3700/oz. Silver is now up at US$43.40, also a strong rise.

NZD HOLDS LOW
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are are still at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we holding at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 65.9.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,345 and down -1.0% from this morning’s open. Volatility has been again low just under +/- 0.7%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».