Which would be more embarrassing, the Detroit Tigers blowing a 15 1/2-game lead to a division opponent or the New York Mets missing the postseason with a $340 million payroll?

With one week left in the regular season, both possibilities are in play. The Tigers’ collapse in the AL Central would rank among the biggest in AL/NL history. The Mets’ crash would be even more humiliating than their 2007 freefall, when they blew a seven-game lead in the NL East with 17 to play.

The average fan probably would label the Mets a greater embarrassment, considering their payroll is nearly three times as large as the Cincinnati Reds, the team that tied them for the final NL wild card on Sunday. The Reds hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning the Mets – at least for the moment – have lost control of their fate. And the Arizona Diamondbacks are only one game back.

Yet, if the Tigers miss the playoffs after leading the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins by 14 games and Cleveland Guardians by 15 1/2 on July 8 – it would be the biggest advantage blown by a team that did not win its division or league in modern AL/NL history, according to Stats Perform.

Likewise, the erasure of a 15 1/2-game deficit would give the Guardians a distinction of their own – biggest comeback for a postseason berth in 125 years of modern AL/NL play.

The 1914 Boston Braves? They rallied from last place in an eight-team league and a 15-game deficit in a 154-game season to win the NL.

The 1951 New York Giants? They came from 13 games back in a 154-game season, then beat the Brooklyn Dodgers in a best-of-three playoff, culminating with Bobby Thomson’s “Shot Heard ’Round the World.”

The 1995 Seattle Mariners? They recovered from an 12 1/2-game deficit on August 20 to steal the AL West from the California Angels in a strike-shortened 145-game campaign.

The Guardians and Tigers will resume their season series on Tuesday in Cleveland. (Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images)

Entering last Tuesday’s play, the Tigers led the Guardians by 6 1/2 games. That margin is now down to one, with the teams meeting this week in Cleveland in a potentially decisive three-game series.

The Tigers could lose the AL Central and still make the playoffs as a wild card if the Houston Astros continue their own late-season slide. But this is a team that just went 0-6 on a homestand against Cleveland and Atlanta, and is 26-37 since July 8. After visiting Cleveland, the Tigers finish the season in Boston. The Guardians’ final series is at home against Texas.

So much for Pitching Chaos, The Sequel: The Tigers’ 5.32 ERA in September is more than 1.50 earned runs per game higher than their 3.80 ERA at the end of August, which ranked seventh in the majors. Their offensive dropoff hasn’t been quite as extreme, but over the last 2 1/2 months their run production has been below league average.

The Guardians, currently tied for 27th in runs per game, hardly qualify as an offensive juggernaut. Only three teams to finish a regular season 27th or worse in scoring have made the playoffs, according to STATS Perform. Two of them, the 2020 Reds and 2020 Milwaukee Brewers, did it in a 16-team field after a pandemic-shortened, 60-game regular season. The other was the 2005 San Diego Padres.

So, how is it that the Guardians are 44-24 since July 6, including their current 15-2 run? In large part because their starting pitchers allowed two runs or fewer in each of those last 17 games, a franchise record. And remember, the Guardians traded right-hander Shane Bieber coming off Tommy John surgery at the deadline, and also are playing without two key members of their pitching staff, right-hander Luis Ortiz and closer Emmanuel Clase, both of whom are under investigation for gambling.

The Reds’ surge hasn’t been nearly as impressive as that of their Ohio neighbors, in large part because it isn’t much of a surge at all. Since July 27, the Reds are only 24-26. But by winning 10 of their last 15, including a four-game home sweep of the Chicago Cubs over the weekend, they are in surprisingly good position. And with a rotation headed by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, they could be dangerous if they win a wild card.

The Reds next host Pittsburgh for three before ending the season in Milwaukee against a Brewers team that already has clinched the NL Central and holds a three-game lead over Philadelphia for the No. 1 overall seed. The Mets finish with a six-game trip to Wrigley Field and Miami. Their lead over the Marlins – the Marlins! – is down to four games.

For years, Mets fans blamed the Wilpon ownership for the team’s repeated stumbles, and not unfairly. Well, at his introductory news conference in November 2020, Steve Cohen said he would consider it “slightly disappointing” if the team did not win a World Series in his first three to five years as owner. This is year five. And for the second time in three seasons – the other being 2023, when they traded Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the deadline – the Mets have badly underachieved.

By now you know the numbers. The Mets were 45-24 on June 12, the best record in the majors, with a 2.79 rotation ERA, also the best in the league. Since then, they’re 35-53, tied with the Chicago White Sox for the fourth-worst record, ahead of only Washington, Minnesota and Colorado. And entering Sunday, their 5.12 rotation ERA ranked 26th.

Injuries are part of it. Tylor Megill has been out since mid-June with a right elbow strain. Griffin Canning suffered a season-ending ruptured left Achilles in late June. One of David Stearns’ free-agent additions to the rotation, Frankie Montas, required Tommy John surgery. Another, Sean Manaea, has dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness. A third, Clay Holmes, has a 4.48 ERA since June 18.

So here are the Mets, desperately trying to hold onto a playoff spot using three rookie starting pitchers. Shouldn’t be an insurmountable problem, particularly when Juan Soto has been sizzling since Aug. 1, and now ranks fifth in the majors in OPS. But the team’s offense overall has been inconsistent, as evidenced by the five runs it scored in its two weekend losses to the pitching-poor Washington Nationals. And two of Stearns’ deadline additions – reliever Ryan Helsley and center fielder Cedric Mullins – have been utter busts.

The Tigers’ deadline, too, proved largely inadequate. Charlie Morton was designated for assignment on Sunday. Chris Paddack has a 6.12 ERA since arriving from Minnesota. Reliever Kyle Finnegan missed two weeks with a right adductor strain, but has been otherwise outstanding. The Tigers acquired another reliever, Paul Sewald, while he was out with a shoulder strain and activated him on Thursday. Now, they must figure out how to use him in the middle of a pennant race.

Bieber and Merrill Kelly were the only top-of-the-rotation starters traded at the deadline, a reflection of the exorbitant prices that Stearns, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris and others refused to meet. After the deadline, Harris was dismissive of the idea that the Tigers needed to maximize their competitive window with Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, telling reporters, “this idea of a window is an illusion.” Really? Skubal is under club control for only one more season after this one. And the way this season started, this was perhaps the Tigers’ best chance to win before he reaches free agency.

A reckoning will await the Mets and Tigers if they fail to reach the postseason or get knocked out early. If the Reds and Guardians join the Brewers in qualifying with bottom-half payrolls, the owners’ push for a salary cap also will suffer a blow. The Mets are not the only expensive club to perform below expectations. The $393 million Los Angeles Dodgers, the team that supposedly was going to ruin baseball, won’t even finish with 95 wins.

The final week should be a doozy. If the Reds and Guardians succeed in turning the season upside down, a lot of people will have some explaining to do.

(Top photo of Tigers’ Javier Baez, Will Vest and Spencer Torkelson (l-r): Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images