Why Ali picked the Bills: Simply put, a Saints win in Buffalo on Sunday would amount to one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. The Bills have the edge — in most cases, a significant one — in nearly every area. Don’t believe me? Just look at all of Buffalo’s four- and five-star advantages in NFL Pro’s matchup breakdown. But it’s not all doom and gloom for New Orleans. The advanced metrics reveal two potential ways for the Saints to keep things interesting at Highmark Stadium. First, the Bills’ defense ranks among the league’s worst at stopping the pass while blitzing. Unfortunately for New Orleans, though, Buffalo blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the league. So, maybe scratch that one. Second, the Bills have allowed the most touchdowns (three-way tie) and the seventh-highest passer rating on quick throws this season. Similarly, though, that sample size is small, with Buffalo seeing the fourth-fewest total quick attempts through Week 3, per Next Gen Stats. Can Spencer Rattler repeatedly dink and dunk New Orleans down the field for six? I could see it happen once … maybe even twice. But it seems unfair to ask the second-year QB, who’s still seeking his first NFL win (0-9), to keep pace with reigning MVP Josh Allen for 60 minutes.
