Canada exported US$2.9-billion worth of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S. in 2024.George Walker IV/The Associated Press
U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest salvo of tariffs puts a new group of Canadian industries at risk, although the extent of the impact remains uncertain.
On Thursday evening, the President said on social media he was putting a 100-per-cent tariff on branded drugs, a 25-per-cent levy on heavy trucks, a 50-per-cent tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30-per-cent tariff on upholstered furniture.
Mr. Trump appears to be relying on the same legislation he used to place levies on steel, aluminum, automobiles and copper, ostensibly to protect national security. There is no exemption from these sectoral duties, known as Sec. 232 tariffs, for Canadian goods that meet continental free trade pact rules.
The White House has not yet published executive orders to implement the tariffs, so details about the scope and timing of the levies remain fuzzy.
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Of the new industries targeted on Thursday, pharmaceuticals is the most significant. Canada sent around US$6.75-billion worth of pharmaceuticals to the United States in 2023, according to a submission made by the Canadian embassy in Washington as part of the Sec. 232 investigation. About US$3-billion of that was finished drugs.
But it’s not clear how many of those products would be hit with the proposed tariffs.
Mr. Trump’s post said the pharmaceutical tariffs would only affect “branded or patented” drugs made by companies without a manufacturing presence in the U.S.
Of the Canadian-made drugs exported to the U.S., 79 per cent were generics and 21 per cent were brand drugs, according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association earlier this year.
Of the new industries targeted by tariffs, pharmaceuticals is the most significant.Julio Cortez/The Associated Press
“The vast majority of what we send to the U.S. are generics,” said Mina Tadrous, a Canada Research Chair in real world evidence and pharmaceutical policy at the University of Toronto.
And most of those brand drugs are made by foreign-owned companies that already operate in the U.S. For example, U.S. drugmaker Moderna Inc. recently opened a new plant in Quebec to make COVID-19 vaccines and other products based on its mRNA technology.
Erin Polka, a spokesperson for industry group Innovative Medicines Canada, said there were “still many unknowns” regarding the tariffs.
When it comes to heavy trucks, Canada is a relatively small player in the North American market and runs a significant trade deficit with the U.S. Canada sent US$2.9-billion worth of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S. and imported US$7.2-billion, according to a Canadian embassy submission.
There are several truck manufacturing plants in Canada. American truck maker Paccar Inc., has a factory in Sainte-Thérèse, Que., which produces Kenworth and Peterbilt medium-duty trucks. In July, the company said it would lay off 175 workers at the plant, following an earlier round of 250 job losses in December.
Hino Motors Canada, a subsidiary of Toyota Motor Corp., builds trucks in Woodstock, Ont., although it says on its website that these are “tailored for the Canadian market.”
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The volume of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles made in Canada is likely less than 5 per cent of the total vehicle production in this country, said Flavio Volpe, head of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, which represents Canadian parts suppliers.
As with many of Mr. Trump’s edicts-by-social-media, Mr. Volpe said everything will depend on the details once they are released in an executive order or when U.S. Customs and Border Protection provides guidance on which specific commodity codes are impacted.
For instance, it’s unclear as of yet whether the tariffs would also apply to buses, which are typically included in the heavy-duty vehicle category.
Nor is it known whether the large truck tariffs would come with the same exemptions granted to passenger vehicles under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, though Mr. Volpe said he expects that to be the case based on his discussions with original equipment manufacturers in the U.S. this week.
Mr. Volpe said the latest tariff announcement is likely aimed at ensuring U.S. tariffs apply to “all transportation goods on four-plus wheels coming from anywhere.” The existing automotive tariffs only apply to light vehicles, creating a potential loophole.
“Ironically, this makes it easier at the negotiating table as we go through the USMCA review, to have just one conversation” about the entire automotive sector, he said.
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The heavy-truck tariffs will have a much larger impact on Mexico, which is home to 14 manufacturers and assemblers of buses, trucks and tractor trucks and two engine manufacturers. The U.S. imported 152,000 trucks from Mexico in 2024, accounting for around 32 per cent of the U.S. market, according to Mexico’s national truck manufacturers’ association.
Canadian cabinet and furniture exports to the U.S. are comparatively small, although there are thousands of small- and medium-sized enterprises across the country that could be impacted by the tariffs. Canada sent around US$390-million worth upholstered furniture and around US$430-million worth of kitchen cabinets south across the border in 2024, according to U.S. customs data.
It’s not clear what legal authority Mr. Trump is relying on to apply these tariffs. To impose Sec. 232 tariffs, the Department of Commerce first needs to conduct an investigation into the industry. There has been no specific Sec. 232 investigation for furniture and cabinets, but there has been an investigation into timber, lumber and wood products.
Gilles Pelletier, head of the Québec Furniture Manufacturers’ Association, said it’s still unclear how Mr. Trump’s announcement will impact his industry. If the President is using the Sec. 232 investigation into wood products, the 30-per-cent tariff announced Thursday may only apply to a portion of a given piece of furniture.
“If you look at upholstery, there’s not a lot of wood in upholstery,” Mr. Pelletier said. “Just don’t panic yet … we just have to wait until there are more details.”
Luke Elias, president of Muskoka Cabinet Co. Inc. and vice-president of the Canadian Kitchen Cabinet Association, said the outlook isn’t good for Canadian cabinet makers.
Mr. Trump’s announcement is “another nail in the coffin for our industry,” which is already facing stiff competition from cheap imports and a weak housing market, he said. He called on the federal government to impose “Buy Canadian” provisions for cabinetry as part of its new Build Canada Homes initiative.
James McKenna, the owner of New Brunswick-based cabinet maker Glenwood Kitchen, said that the announcement will essentially shut down his business in the U.S., which currently accounts for around 20 per cent of sales.
“Over 40 years of selling to our friends down there and within the next two weeks that business will be done,” Mr. McKenna said.
“I spoke to many of my U.S customers today. They feel horrible about what’s going on, but obviously they cannot justify a 50-per-cent increase in the prices. Nor can we,” he said.
Mr. McKenna, who employs around 120 people in two plants in Moncton and Shediac, N.B., said he was confident he would be able to pivot and find new markets in Canada and overseas, particularly in the Caribbean. But he said he was worried about other cabinet makers who have relied more heavily on exports to the U.S.
“My competitors in Quebec and in Ontario, they’ve built multimillion, $20-million, $30-million completely automated factories with the premise of selling into the U.S. … You’re going to see some companies go under because they won’t be able to pay for the mortgages. It’s really going to decimate the cabinet industry across the country,” he said.