A public opinion poll, initiated by the popular Telegram channel ‘Abu Ali Express’ and carried out by the Smith Institute, reveals that most Israelis oppose a comprehensive hostage deal with Hamas when the price is clearly outlined.
Participants were asked about their support for a comprehensive deal that includes Hamas’s demands: “Ending the fighting while Hamas remains in power, the full withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, the rehabilitation of the Strip, and the release of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.”
46% of respondents said that Hamas’s demands should be rejected, 37% supported the deal, and 17% were unsure.
According to the operator of the channel, the Smith Institute excluded from the question the fact that Hamas would continue to hold the weapons it currently possesses.
The second question asked: “If Israel does not accept Hamas’s demands for the release of all hostages, should it agree to a partial deal, including a 60-day ceasefire, the release of 10 living hostages and 18 deceased hostages, and partial withdrawal from the Gaza Strip?” 51% answered yes, 34% opposed it, and 15% did not express an opinion.
In the third question, “If Hamas does not agree to Israel’s offer of a partial deal, with a temporary ceasefire of 60 days and the release of 10 living hostages and 18 deceased hostages, what should Israel do?” 55% said Israel should increase the intensity of fighting, with half of them noting the risk to the hostages. 18% supported accepting Hamas’s demands, 13% supported continuing the current framework, and 14% did not take a position.
The operator of the ‘Abu Ali Express’ channel shared the purpose of the poll, and criticized the conduct of major polling institutes. He explained that the poll was conducted after the ‘Midgam’ Institute, which initially agreed to conduct the poll, backed out. According to him, the institute refused to ask the original questions as formulated, even after being presented with information supported by articles published on news websites.
He claimed that the Deputy Director of the Midgam Institute, Adi Geva, initially agreed to conduct the poll in order to contribute to the public debate, but after reviewing the details of the questions, she realized that it could influence sensitive issues in negotiations.
The channel operator criticized this decision, saying, “If she admits that ‘the poll can influence,’ what does she have to say about the impact of the poll conducted by her institute with missing data, which came to a different conclusion than three polls that presented the cost of the deal?”
Despite the fact that the Smith Institute also requested changes to the question formulation—such as omitting the clause about Hamas retaining weapons—a final poll was conducted that presented the public with the implications of the deal and yielded different results than those of the surveys published in the mainstream media.