Opening night is almost here for the Maple Leafs, and it looks like (maybe!) head coach Craig Berube has made up his mind. Or did until Scott Laughton blocked a Moritz Seider shot in Detroit and suffered an injury that will keep him out for weeks.

How is the roster shaping up? Let’s take a look.

Forwards
LineLWCRW

1

Knies

Matthews

Domi

2

McMann

Tavares

Nylander

3

Maccelli

Roy

Joshua

4

Lorentz

Kämpf

Cowan

Robertson

Laughton (injured)

Järnkrok

Is there a combination here that lasts? Which has the most staying power?

Let’s start up top.

Line 1: Knies – Matthews – Domi

Max Domi is the big wild card here, obviously.

His success on the line may boil down to three things:

1. Is he creating opportunities for Matthews?

Circle back to the spring of 2024, when Domi ran with a first-line opportunity, and that’s what he did so successfully for the team’s best player. Matthews fired over 16 shots on 30 attempts per 60 minutes when he played with Domi, better than he even managed with Mitch Marner. The numbers are pretty outrageous for the Matthews-Domi combo that season (small sample notwithstanding).

Matthews in 2023-24 with…

Per 60 minsDomiMarner

Shots

16.2

11.8

Attempts

31.0

21.0

Goals

3.2

1.6

Points

4.9

2.8

2. Is he productively engaged?

Domi can run hot in a way that hurts his team, namely by taking penalties from over-aggression. He’s at his best, with Matthews or otherwise, when he’s playing with fire in a productive manner. He’s competitive but not overly so.

3. Is he taking care of the puck and making (enough of) the right plays defensively?

Life is different on Matthews’ line. The competition is steep — the steepest every night. There’s no room for poor decision-making with the puck and/or unfocused defensive play. This will be the biggest challenge for Domi. It’s why stints in the top six ended quickly last season.

How long is Berube prepared to let this audition go? A game? Two? Five? How differently will the Leafs coach deploy the line with Domi there in place of Marner? How dominant can the unit be without a star right winger? Will it control the puck like it did before?

Will there simply be a revolving door at right wing?

Line 2: McMann – Tavares – Nylander

What an opportunity for Bobby McMann — and in a contract year no less.

He has a chance to play more than ever, score more than ever, and smash every personal best offensively. His career bests to this point: 20 goals, 34 points, playing 14.5 minutes, all coming last season.

Wingers, including McMann, have been cycling in and out of this line for years. Competition for the gig doesn’t appear especially fierce this season. McMann is probably competing with the likes of Matias Maccelli, Domi, Calle Järnkrok, Dakota Joshua and maybe Easton Cowan if he sticks around. (I’d like to see how Maccelli fits in at some point.)

If he’s not scoring, is McMann still contributing? Is he aiding William Nylander and John Tavares by playing fast, hard, and physically on a night-to-night basis? Those elements have tended to disappear for McMann when he falls into a scoring funk.

Line 3: Maccelli – Roy – Joshua

Maccelli did his best work with Arizona/Utah playing on the third line alongside two giants (Lawson Crouse and Nick Bjugstad). Nicolas Roy and Joshua are big fellas themselves and might work well with a playmaker such as Maccelli.

Or perhaps the line will prove more functional with a third large body on it, such as McMann, instead.

If Domi’s top-line audition flounders, Maccelli figures to be next in line to move up and try out.

I’m curious about Joshua’s fit here. He was at his best with the Canucks running around next to two teeny, competitive dynamos in Conor Garland and Teddy Blueger. I wonder if he ends up elsewhere.

Berube sees Joshua and Roy as a duo to build off of at the moment.

Where will newcomer Dakota Joshua end up playing? (David Kirouac / Imagn Images)

Line 4: Lorentz – ? – Cowan

What now? Laughton is out and David Kämpf, his most likely replacement, is weirdly on waivers.

Now, maybe the Leafs are simply trying to slip Kämpf across the waiver wire and acquire some flexibility in the event that he can clear (which seems likely given the additional year left on his contract). But why even try when Kämpf is suddenly needed in fourth-line duty for the foreseeable future? What benefit is flexibility for someone who figures to be playing every night in Laughton’s absence?

Or is he playing every night now?

We know Berube isn’t the biggest Kämpf fan around and that Kämpf was looking like the clear odd man out at camp. But what’s the alternative at fourth-line centre? The Leafs coach tried Steven Lorentz in the middle for a couple of games last season and Calle Järnkrok has played some centre (uncomfortably) in the past.

Neither feels like a real solution — or a better option than Kämpf.

Berube could restructure his lineup entirely if he really wanted …

Knies — Matthews — Maccelli

McMann — Tavares — Nylander

Lorentz — Roy — Joshua

Robertson/Järnkrok — Domi — Cowan

But that would be quite an overreaction to a relatively minor injury.

Here’s what we do know: This wasn’t the plan. And Berube definitely isn’t thrilled about it.

The Leafs coach was pumped by the potential of a fourth line that featured Laughton, Lorentz and 20-year-old Easton Cowan. The trio flashed some feisty two-way potential in the preseason. Laughton and Cowan were building a connection, on the ice and off it. Laughton was set up to start the year off right after a bumpy transition to the Leafs in the spring. He was clearly becoming important to the head coach.

Berube had planned to lean on the Laughton-Lorentz partnership. The two were even going to kill penalties together.

Berube continues to rave about Cowan, so this wouldn’t seem to change anything about his chances of making the team. However, the prospect of pairing Cowan with Lorentz and Kämpf (or Lorentz and Järnkrok), two players of very limited offence, can’t be all that appealing.

David Kämpf is back in the mix after the Scott Laughton injury. (David Kirouac / Imagn Images)

Is there another place higher in the lineup for Cowan to go? A place where his offensive game can be put to better use? Or does Berube simply allow Cowan to start off in limited minutes, at the bottom of the lineup, and maybe drop him in for the odd shift elsewhere (with Tavares and Nylander, say)?

The apparent silver lining of the Laughton injury was that it allowed the Leafs not to have to expose anyone of relative importance to waivers. Now that Kämpf is dangling out there, is there another shoe to drop? Is Nick Robertson for sure still sticking around?

Defence
PairingLDRD

1

McCabe

Tanev

2

Rielly

Carlo

3

Ekman-Larsson

Benoit

Mermis/Thrun

Myers

What’s striking here is just how stable things are compared to last year at this time.

Back then, the Leafs were working then-newcomers, Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, into the mix and they hadn’t yet landed Brandon Carlo in a trade.

Tanev was partnering up with Morgan Rielly. Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe were playing together. Conor Timmins (remember him?) was rounding out a top six that didn’t include Timothy Liljegren, who would later be traded to San Jose.

It was a period of experimentation that would eventually see McCabe and Tanev get together while Rielly bounced between partners, including Ekman-Larsson, until the arrival of Carlo from Boston.

This fall, things are set.

McCabe and Tanev are the established No. 1 pair. Rielly isn’t looking for a suitable partner. He’s got Carlo. And Ekman-Larsson is slotted, more suitably, in a third-pairing role on (for now) his strong side.

The only point of uncertainty is on that third pair and whether Simon Benoit can make a go out of it on the right. Benoit spent the first two seasons of his AHL career playing on the right, so this isn’t completely foreign territory for him.

If he struggles in the transition, Berube plans to simply slide Ekman-Larsson back there.

The Ekman-Larsson-Benoit combo wasn’t a smashing success late last season.

PairMinsxGF%

Rielly-Carlo

220

60.8

McCabe-Tanev

622

51.7

Benoit-Ekman-Larsson

196

45.0

Goalies
Goalie

1

Anthony Stolarz

2

Joseph Woll

3

Dennis Hildeby

4

James Reimer (?)

It remains unclear when the Leafs will get Joseph Woll back, which is obviously significant.

Woll — not Anthony Stolarz — had the most starts (41) and wins (27) for the team last season. It was the combination of the two that made the crease so effective. When Woll was hurt, the team turned to Stolarz. And when Stolarz went down with an injury, Woll stepped up and played more.

The Leafs were able to split starts when both were healthy.

That option is gone until Woll returns. This is Stolarz’s net now.

At the moment, it appears that Dennis Hildeby will open the season as Stolarz’s backup, just like last season.

How much the team is willing to play Hildeby early on remains to be seen. The Leafs have 11 games in October, including three back-to-backs. Stolarz has never started more than seven games in a month during his time in the NHL. He did so last March and went 3-3-1, with an .898 save percentage.

Hildeby made two appearances last October before Woll returned from a groin injury. He may be in line for more runs this time around if Woll’s absence persists.

It remains to be seen whether James Reimer, who practised with the Leafs on Friday, ends up as the team’s No. 3 (or 2) to begin the season. Adding a veteran feels borderline mandatory now with the uncertainty around Woll.

Does a better option appear on waivers?

— Stats and research courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

(Top photo: Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)