Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
After we published yesterday’s edition, all the big banks moved lower, as did the Cooperative Bank. Their shifts varied and you can find the details here. No bank has passed on the full -50 bps OCR cut yet. Welcome, Basecorp and CFML all cut too. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
It is the same for savings account changes after the OCR cut. The details are here. Most banks have cut savings rates by the full -50 bps. Also Squirrel. The Cooperative Bank trimmed their TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

BUYERS WILL BE JOINING A FALLING MARKET
New listings surge on Trade Me Property for the start of spring. They are up +24% in September from August giving prospective buyers plenty of choice … as well as likely putting downward pressure on residential housing prices.

HOPEFUL GLIMMERS
ANZ reports that card spending in their system was up +3.4% in September from a year ago.They see some positive trends and not only because there is growth despite lower petrol prices. Most sectors have positive and accelerating annual growth – though it’s important to bear in mind that spend is a mix of volume and price movements, and inflation is up. But they also say the trend in real card spending remains flat.

MORE SAVINGS, BY A FEW
In updated June 2025 national accounts data (GDP) StatsNZ said household saving increased from a low +$149 mln in the March quarter to +$804 mln in the June 2025 quarter, as household net disposable income increased more than the increase in household spending. The main drivers of the disposable income increase were dividends received by households and self-employed business owners. The June +$804 mln is a seasonally adjusted record, and is the most since December 2021.

SMALLER SHARE
The same national accounts data allows us to check how much of GDP is earned through the compensation of employees. In the year to June 2025 it was 44.0% having risen over the last ten years from 42.5% of GDP. But the June level is on the downswing again with it having peaked in this decade at 45.1% in December 2023. Employees losing 1% of GDP is actually quite a lot in 18 months – about $4.4 bln, juice the economy needed but didn’t get. And it also coincides with the term of the current government, it has to be noted.

MISFIRING ECONOMY GENERATES A LARGER DEFICIT
Treasury released the final Crown accounts for the year to June 2025 today. Away from the OBEGAL deficit of -$9.3 bln (up from 2024’s -$8.8 bln), there are some interesting factoids in the revenue data. Tax cuts hurt, made the deficit worse. Tax collected from individuals (Source collections) was up just +0.3% for the year, but “other persons’ had an almost +15% jump in tax.. Corporate taxes rose +3.5% and taxes in interest paid was up +2.5%. Taxes on dividends collapsed -63%, a problem with a misfiring economy. If there were profits to tax like 2024, that would have improved the deficit by nearly $2 bln. GST was up +0.9%. Road user charges were up +10.7%. On the expenditure side, even though spending rose, it fell as a proportion of overall economic activity (GDP).

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was virtually unchanged in its Thursday session so far. It is up +0.9% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.9% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged today so far. Ryman leads gainers with Scales, Kathmandu and Gentrack. But Tourism Holdings, Vista, PFI and Argosy weigh.

JOB ADVERTISED
The RBNZ is recruiting for two external members of their new Financial Policy Committee, and today released the application pack if you are interested. They say it will require a time commitment of 20-30 days per year. But one key aspect is missing in the details released today – what the role will pay.

CONTINUING HOT DEMAND
Today’s NZGB bond tender was very well supported from 84 bids worth $1.95 bln. They were after some of the $450 mln on offer and just 17 bids won something. The May 2031 hadn’t been offered in more than 40 weeks and came in at 3.52% yield (down from the prior 4.16%). The May 2034 was offered three weeks ago. Today it delivered a 3.99% yield vs the prior 4.13% pa.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE
In Australia, their October survey of inflation expectations again shows pressure at the top of the recent range. Those expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7% in September, continuing high results since June. This is building concerns that Q3 inflation may exceed the forecasts of 3% when it is released on Wednesday, October 29. This latest uptick reflects the impact of unwinding temporary energy subsidies, and elevated labour costs driven by weak productivity.

SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be lower today for all durations in a bear shift. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Wednesday at 2.69%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps on their market reopen at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps at 4.14%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday’s rate down -5 bps to 4.18%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.13%.

EQUITIES MIXED, EXCEPT TOKYO SOARS AGAIN
The local equity market is now unchanged in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened strongly again, up another +1.3%, up +11% over the past month and at an ATH. Hong Kong is down -1.0% at its open. Shanghai is back trading after its holiday break but is only up +0.2% from eight days ago. But that is enough to claim a record high. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session up +0.6% on the S&P500.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price in the US is little-changed from yesterday at this time at just over US$62/bbl and the international Brent price is still just under US$66/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today so the price has held at $55.50/NZU which is its lowest since July. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD STAYS ABOVE US$4000
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$14 from yesterday, now at US$4019/oz and is holding. Silver is holding over US$48.50/ox.

NZD RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar has recovered +50 bps after the OCR cut and initial market reaction and is now at 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +30 bps at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +40 bps at just under 65.5.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$122,306 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.2%.

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