Wagner Moura’s star is on the rise — and Dwayne Johnson’s is on the ropes. Following the disappointing box-office debut of The Smashing Machine, Johnson’s awards momentum has faltered, allowing Brazil’s The Secret Agent star to leap into Gold Derby’s Top 5 for Best Actor. The shift marks a symbolic passing of the torch between two vastly different contenders: one a global blockbuster icon, the other a festival darling whose film represents Brazil in this year’s Best International Feature Oscar race.
Best Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Leonardo DiCaprio
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
93.1%
2.
Timothee Chalamet
Timothee Chalamet
Marty Supreme
91.8%
3.
Jeremy Allen White
Jeremy Allen White
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
81.3%
4.
Michael B. Jordan
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
62.2%
5.
Wagner Moura
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
48.0%
Despite strong early buzz from Venice, The Smashing Machine stumbled out of the gate. The Benny Safdie–directed A24 biopic, starring Johnson as MMA fighter Mark Kerr, grossed just $6 million in its opening weekend — a far cry from its $50 million budget and the star’s past box-office dominance. Critics were moderately positive (65 percent on Metacritic), but a B-minus CinemaScore suggested audiences just weren’t interested.
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That underwhelming debut sent the film plummeting in the Best Picture odds and knocked Johnson from his previously firm fifth-place hold in Best Actor. His combined prediction score dropped a steep 15 percent overall, pushing him down to sixth place on the Gold Derby leaderboard. Also waiting in the wings: Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) continues a slow but steady rise in seventh — signaling another possible shake-up as Oscar season unfolds.
Enter The Secret Agent and its magnetic lead. Moura, long revered in Brazil for Elite Squad and Narcos, is suddenly a global contender. He plays Marcelo, a tech expert on the run who returns to Recife during Carnival to reunite with his son, only to be swept into the chaos of Brazil’s military dictatorship in the late 1970s.
‘The Secret Agent’Victor Juca/Neon
According to Gold Derby’s latest combined odds, Moura has now climbed into fifth place among predicted nominees for Best Actor — behind Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere), and Michael B. Jordan (Sinners).
The film’s success mirrors the global recognition of last year’s Brazilian submission, I’m Still Here, which landed three Oscar nominations — Best Actress (Fernanda Torres), Best Picture, and Best International Feature — which it ultimately won. That victory has boosted confidence that Brazil could make back-to-back appearances in major categories, especially with Moura’s name now firmly in the mix.
While The Smashing Machine still has an awards campaign to mount, Johnson’s team may pivot toward a SAG push or late-season reappraisal — but the buzz clearly belongs to Moura. With Neon expanding The Secret Agent to U.S. theaters on Nov. 26, its growing momentum could make Moura one of this year’s most surprising crossover contenders.
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