The National Hurricane Center reports Melissa has strengthened into a hurricane in the Caribbean on Oct. 25 and could soon rapidly intensify into a monstrous Category 4 or 5 storm, bringing perilous threats of rain, winds and storm surge to northern Caribbean islands.
The forecast is especially dire for Jamaica, where the hurricane center expects portions of the island to see two feet of rain or more. The storm is expected to move northeast out of the Caribbean over the next 5 days and not directly hit the U.S. mainland.
It’s “looking quite likely we will have several days of flooding and then potentially a devastating core impact near or directly over the island,” said Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, in an Oct. 24 X post.
Hurricane Melissa slams the Caribbean. See the floods and impact on residents in photos
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The National Hurricane Center reports Melissa has strengthened into a hurricane in the Caribbean on Oct. 25 and could soon rapidly intensify into a monstrous Category 4 or 5 storm, bringing perilous threats of rain, winds and storm surge to northern Caribbean islands.
A drone view shows a vehicle driving along a flooded street amid rain caused by Tropical Storm Melissa, in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, October 24, 2025.
“Melissa is evolving into a slow-motion disaster,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva on Oct. 24. “Millions of people are at risk of catastrophic impacts. We are increasingly concerned about the threat of a humanitarian disaster unfolding.”
Caribbean nations at risk
Jamaica is expected to see heavy rain. “Precipitation totals from multiple models suggest that storm totals exceeding 24 inches and localized amounts above 30 inches are quite possible,” said meteorologists Bob Henson and Jeff Masters in their blog Eye on the Storm.
In addition, the islands of Cuba and Hispaniola, where Haiti and the Dominican Republic are located, could see flash flooding and landslides into early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center morning discussion on Oct. 25.
In Jamaica, the National Hurricane Center warned of a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning the night of Oct. 25. These effects could cause flash floods and landslides, followed by increasing risks of life-threatening storm surge early next week.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone for Melissa on the afternoon of Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025.
A day earlier, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said residents should prepare to evacuate flood-prone areas. He harkened back to the effects of Hurricane Beryl, which passed south of Jamaica and drenched the island nation.
“You have been given enough notice that this weather event is coming and it could be disastrous,” Holness said in a special news briefing. “Take all measures to protect yourself.”
Hurricanes hit Jamaica about once every 10 or 11 years, on average based on historical data, according to the Jamaican government. Hurricane Gilbert was the strongest recorded to hit Jamaica in 1988, which made landfall as a high-end Category 3.
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly in New York, U.S., on Sept. 26, 2025.
Fifth hurricane of the season
Melissa is the fifth hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, joining Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda. A typical season sees seven hurricanes.
If it becomes a major hurricane (Category 3 and above) as predicted, it will be the fourth such storm this year. Additionally, if it reaches Category 4 strength, it would be the 4th of the first 5 hurricanes of 2025 to become Category 4+, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach on X.
Storms of the 2025 hurricane season so far
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Satellite view of Tropical Storm Melissa 10:30 a.m. Oct. 22, 2025.
That’s a rare occurrence: “Only 3 other times on record have 4 of the first 5 Atlantic hurricanes reached Category 4+: In 1932, 1999, and 2010,” he said.
Most preseason forecasts predicted a busier-than-average season, which hasn’t quite panned out as of late October. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would feature 6-10 hurricanes, of which 3-5 would be major hurricanes.
Colorado State University forecasters said that 8 hurricanes would form in 2025, of which 3 would be major.
Track Hurricane Melissa’s pathCould this be the last hurricane of the year? Will the US be spared?
“With no new storms on the horizon into early November, we can hope Mother Nature has finally given the U.S. a pass after 9 consecutive years of hurricane hits,” said WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in a Substack post.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Melissa forms, takes aim at Jamaica. Forecast updates.