In short

The 2025 summer crop harvest is under way, with mostly near or above-average summer crop yields expected at EU level. Only grain maize and sunflower have been strongly affected in the south-eastern Europe, pulling the EU outlook down to –3 % and –10 % below the five-year average, respectively. In contrast, near- or above-average yields for most summer crops are forecast in northern and western European countries.
This October edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin includes an extended section on sowing conditions and the early establishment of winter crops across Europe. Favourable weather and field conditions from France to Poland, and from Scandinavia to Italy, have supported timely sowing with good emergence and early crop development. In contrast, excessive wetness in parts of Bulgaria and Romania delayed winter cereal sowings, while in Portugal, Spain and parts of eastern Croatia and Hungary the sowing of winter crops has been delayed due to continuously dry soils. Uniform crop emergence in these regions will require rainfall arriving soon that, indeed, is likely to occur in the coming weeks.
The summer crop season is coming to an end with no new impacts recorded and only minor concerns identified for the beginning of the new winter crop season.

Areas of concern
 

Minor alerts for winter sowingsNorthern Iberian peninsula: Dry soils since summer and lacking autumn rainfall so far have hindered rapeseed sowing.Hungary, western Romania and eastern Croatia: Missing early autumn precipitation is affecting seedbed preparation, and sowing operations are expected to be delayed, though still within the optimal sowing window.Eastern and southern Romania and northern Bulgaria: Intense precipitation at the beginning of October (over 150 mm in a few days) caused soils to shift from very dry to overly wet conditions within a short period, allowing sowing to advance only slowly.Summer crop season closed – no new impacts reported

The summer crop season has effectively concluded, with most summer crops harvested during the reporting period. The impact map should therefore be considered a summary of the impacts observed throughout the season.

Western France: Hot and dry conditions at the beginning of the summer reduced the yield potential of the summer crops.Southern Germany: Pest-related damage to potatoes and sugar beet was largely mitigated by good conditions in the other regions; the areas marked on the impact map indicate the localised zones where impacts were reported.Central Italy: Prolonged dryness in July negatively affected sunflower crops during the grain-filling stage.Eastern Hungary, western Romania, eastern Croatia and southern and eastern Ukraine: Persistent drought conditions led to poor summer crop conditions throughout the season.Southern Romania and Bulgaria: Prolonged dryness till late September was followed by sudden excessive wetness, resulting into poorly developed summer crops with low yields and additional challenges in their harvest.Greece: Dry weather and limited irrigation availability in some regions resulted in moderate summer crop yields.Türkiye: Dry and hot summer conditions severely constrained summer crop growth, reducing biomass accumulation and expected yields.Further agricultural information

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For comprehensive agricultural insights for Europe, explore the JRC AGRI4CAST website, which offers a wealth of information, tools, data and tutorials, including:

JRC MARS Bulletins: Receive monthly analyses on crop growth conditions and yield forecasts for the EU and neighbouring countries.JRC MARS Explorer: Access over 2000 high-resolution maps and graphs detailing recent weather conditions and crop-growth progress.AGRI4CAST Resources Portal: Utilise freely available datasets and software developed by AGRI4CAST for public use.Crop Forecasting Videos: Engage with an educational collection of videos that provide an overview of crop monitoring and yield forecasting activities.

For global agricultural insights, visit the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production) website to access the latest information on global agricultural production hotspots in countries at risk of food insecurity.

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