Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

DON’T FORGET …
It might be the first day of the working week, but it is Tuesday today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union lower their fixed rates. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has trimmed most term deposit rates, following last week’s mortgage rate cuts. The Police Credit Union trimmed its rates too. We now also cover Welcome, a new non-bank deposit taker who have DCS protection. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MORE FILLED JOBS
Updated labour market data shows more signs of stabilisation with a rise in filled jobs in September. StatsNZ reported a reasonable sized gain ahead of official unemployment figures due to be released next week.

JUMPING IN THE DEEP END
Almost half September’s first home buyer mortgage approvals were for low equity loans, according to RBNZ data. First home buyer activity is flat but record numbers are taking out low equity mortgages to get into homes of their own.

THE MORTGAGE INDEBTED CATCH A BREAK
More generally, other RBNZ data shows households got and average -15.4% reduction in mortgage payments in past year, as falling mortgage interest rates drove down the cost of living for those with mortgages.

INFLATION HITS THE POOR HARDER
Overall, the latest Stats NZ data shows the cost of living for the average Kiwi household, as measured by the household living-costs price indexes (HLPIs) increased +2.4% in the 12 months to the September 2024 quarter, down from 2.6% for the June quarter. But for beneficiaries, the HLPIs for them rose +3.4%, for superannuitants it was +3.9%. Those at the bottom end of the social/economic structure (quintile 1) it was +4.0%. For those at the top end (quintile 5), their HLPI rose just +0.8% and the least for any group.

NEXT STEP FOR SUPERCRITICAL GEOTHERMAL
The private sector may be pushing ahead with development plans for a big Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme. But the government is also pushing ahead with exploring supercritical geothermal capacity to produce vast amounts of continuous baseload electricity. The first step is a test exploration and drilling project. An international team of advisers has now been appointed to guide the GNS project. Considerable IP is expected to flow from this project. The alma mater of the senior Stanford professor who will chair the group is Auckland University.

NZX50 STAYS FIRMISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index turned firmer in its Monday session, up +0.2% so far. That puts it +0.5% higher over the past five working days. It is up +2.6% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another -0.6% today, still caught in US tariff purgatory. Gentrack, Napier Port, SkyCity casino, and Contact lead the gainers while the main decliners are Vista Group, Fletcher, Goodman Property, and Heartland

A MORE CERTAIN OUTCOME
It is looking much more likely that NZX-listed Restaurant Brands will be sold to Mexican operator Finaccess Restauración, S.L. Independent directors of Restaurant Brands have recommended accepting the $5.05/share offer, a significant premium to recent trading prices – a 71% premium to the NZX closing price on 29 September 2025 (the last trading day before Finaccess announced its Offer) and an 80% premium to the one-month volume weighted average price prior to that date.

CLEANING UP CLIMATE REPORTING CONFUSION BY ‘NO ACTION’
Companies affected by recently announced climate reporting changes will no longer be expected to lodge climate statements ahead of legislation changes. The FMA says for affected Climate Reporting Entities (CREs) with upcoming lodgement dates for the 2025/2026 reporting period, the ‘no action’ approach means that the FMA will not take any action in respect of a failure to prepare or lodge climate statements, or any other obligation under Part 7A of the FMC Act.

A SMALL STEP UP
S&P Global Ratings has revised its rating outlook on Avanti Finance to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’. S&P affirmed its ‘BB’ long-term and ‘B’ short-term issuer credit ratings on the finance company. At this level, this is sub-investment grade, still two notches below investment grade.

THE PACE PICKS UP
South Korea said its economy grew +1.7% real in Q3-2025 from the same quarter in 2024, building on a widening expansion. Over the past year, all of their growth has come in Q2 and Q3-2025.

COMPLACENCY WARNING
In Australia, RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned that a sudden reversal in global market optimism could trigger financial instability and hasten interest rate cuts. Speaking at the Australian Business Economists annual event in Sydney last night, she said investors seemed overly complacent despite economic and geopolitical risks.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed or marginally firmer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Friday at 2.52%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.18%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 1.75%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.04%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Friday’s rate up +2 bps to 4.00%. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 3.98%.

EQUITIES STUTTER
The local equity market is now up +0.1% in Tuesday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.5%. Hong Kong is down -0.1% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.1% to start their Tuesday trade. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. The Wall Street ended its Monday trade up +1.2% on the S&P500 and a new record high – before the selling started setting in to Asian markets who lost the euphoria as the details and caveats start trickling out of the US-China ‘framework’.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is marginally softer to just under US$61.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just over US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE SOFT
There have been some trades today but the price has dropped at $54.90/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$11 from this morning, now at US$4004/oz but down  -US76/oz from this time yesterday.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning at 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps at 62.3.

BITCOIN SOFTER
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,184 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.8%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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