The race for New York City mayor is tightening as it heads into its final stretch.

With a little more than a week to go before Election Day — and early voting already underway with a much stronger turnout than four years ago — independent candidate Andrew Cuomo has cut Democrat nominee Zohran Mamdani’s lead in half to 10 points, according to a Suffolk University Boston poll.

A similar poll by Suffolk University Boston in September had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 20 points. The new poll was conducted after Mayor Eric Adams endorsed Cuomo last week. 

What the latest NYC mayor’s race poll shows

Mamdani remains the clear frontrunner, leading Cuomo 44%-34%. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa is in third place with 11%. Some 7% of those surveyed remain undecided.

This is the first poll in months that shows the gap between Mamdani and Cuomo substantially narrowing. The poll surveyed 500 likely New York City general election voters. The margin of error is 4.4%.

“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Sen. Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race. And when asked for their second choice, those voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani 36%-2%.”

“Today’s Suffolk University poll shows exactly what we’re seeing on the ground: This is a two-man race, momentum is on our side, and the more New Yorkers learn about how dangerously inexperienced Zohran Mamdani is — and about his extremist agenda — the less they like what they see,” Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said.

“In just a month, Andrew Cuomo has cut Mamdani’s lead in half, and the early vote is going our way,” he continued.

But can Cuomo make up 10 points in eight days, with people already voting?

“Polls can change in a second, and I expect one or two more that might show it’s back to 20 or might show it’s down to five, so its a pretty volatile race, but this is as close as he has gotten,” said Matthew Hale, an associate professor of political science at Seton Hall University. 

You can see the full poll results here.

Turnout of older voters surging in early voting

In the first three days of early voting, in which more than 223,000 people have cast ballots, there appears to be a surge of older voters. They are outnumbering younger voters who helped propel Mamdani to his win over Cuomo in the Democratic primary.

Cuomo called the turnout extraordinary.

“There’s anger in this city. There’s fear in this city. There’s frustration in this city. It’s all percolating. You can feel it out there,” Cuomo said. “I feel very good because New Yorkers, at the end of the day, they want a mayor who can do the job.”

New Yorkers are taking advantage of early voting in record numbers, and an analysis shows a dramatic age shift. Voters over 50 far outnumber the younger voters who dominated the race during the primary.

Cuomo supporters think the surge in older voters is a hopeful sign for them, like former Gov. David Paterson, who supported Cuomo in the primary, then Adams, and now is supporting Cuomo again.

“That is clearly advantageous to the former governor that the senior vote, which had been dwindling, is coming back almost with logarithmic proportions, and if it stays that way, he should win by three to five points,” Paterson said. 

Mamdani, Sliwa pleased with voter turnout

Mamdani, who has an army of tens of thousands of enthusiastic volunteers helping to get out the vote, called the turnout great.

“I think we should always celebrate when more New Yorkers are going to the polls, and I continue to be confident in our campaign as well as in our outreach to voters above the age of 55, and also, I will not allow myself to become complacent,” Mamdani said.

Sliwa said he is not giving up.

“The people will determine who the next mayor of the city of New York is through their votes. Once they are tallied on the night of Nov. 4, and I will do what I’ve done every day in this campaign since I announced in mid-February, which is to go down into the subways and to ride with the passengers,” Sliwa said.

It’s hard to know what the early voting turnout really means. When Michael Bloomberg first ran for mayor in the aftermath of 9/11 as a Republican, he was behind Democrat Mark Green until the final week of the campaign, when Rudy Giuliani endorsed him.

All three of the current candidates are planning a fight to the finish. 

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