Jim Cassidy was revered as a master in the saddle, a champion jockey who won 103 Group 1s including two Melbourne Cups – on the barnstorming Kiwi in 1983 and the great front-running Might And Power in 1997.

Foxsports.com.au is thrilled to bring you this runner-by-runner Melbourne Cup guide from the legendary jockey they call the Pumper.

Watch live coverage of the 2025 Spring Racing Carnival events with Racing.com available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.

Flemington, Tuesday, November 4

Race 7, 3.00pm

1. AL RIFFA (Barrier 19)

Approx Odds: $8.50/$3.20

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien; Jockey: Mark Zahra

Here he is, the horse with that grand title – the topweight in the Melbourne Cup! He comes from Ireland with a huge reputation, having won the Group 1 double of the Curragh Cup and Irish St Leger back-to-back, both over 2816m, in his past two starts. This is his first time beyond that trip, but his trainer knows what he’s doing, having won this race with Rekindling in 2017 and Twilight Payment in 2020, and he wouldn’t have brought him all this way if he didn’t think he was the ideal type. Another huge plus is Mark Zahra. He’s one of the best jockeys around, is coming off a bottler on Derby Day when he rode four winners, and rides Flemington as well as anyone around today – almost as good as I did! This horse has got the top weight for a reason – because his form is very, very good. But at the same time, no horse has carried as big a weight to win this race since 1969, when Rain Lover humped 60.5kg. Weight will stop a train, as the old saying goes. And it makes it so important that the horse gets a nice, smooth, trouble-free run. It’s a lot harder to stop and get going again under a bigger weight. And if it’s wet, which the forecasters say it will be, carrying that weight over a gruelling two miles becomes even harder. He’s gonna have to be every bit as good as they say to win this, especially from gate 19, but maybe he is.

2. BUCKAROO (12)

$9 / $3.30

T: Chris Waller; J: Craig Williams

It’s pretty hard to knock this horse. He’s a classy animal, as shown by a win and seven placings at G1 level, including at his last start when he nearly pinched the Cox Plate off the outstanding Via Sistina. He’s trained by the great man, Chris Waller, who also trains Via Sistina so he got the quinella in the Cox Plate. I’m going to have a Waller trifecta in this race, because he’s got five starters and you can’t put anything past the bloke. And Willo is still one of the best jockeys around, at 48, and has won this race before in 2019 with Vow And Declare. It’s very handy for a rider to have that behind them. This horse went OK for ninth in the Cup last year – obviously not among the placings, but he did draw wide, and he’s probably going better this year. My worry with him is the weight – 57kg is still a hefty impost, especially if it’s wet. At least he has a decent middle gate this time. A jockey gets to sum things up well from the middle as you battle for positions up the straight for the first time. I wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of backing him, but he’s not in my top four.

MORE MELBOURNE CUP

TREVOR MARSHALLSEA’S FORM GUIDE: Every runner rated

ULTIMATE GUIDE: Everything you need to know

WEATHER: Flemington forecast as rain looms

ORDER OF ENTRY: Who made the cut, and who didn’t

MELBOURNE CUP BARRIER DRAW: How every horse fared

DUMMIES’ GUIDE: How to put on a bet

Buckaroo (GB) on the way to the barriers prior to the running of the TAB Turnbull Stakes at Flemington Racecourse on October 05, 2024 in Flemington, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

3. ARAPAHO (15)

$51 / $14

T: Bjorn Baker; J: Rachel King

Bjorn’s a great trainer who’s had a lot of success in the past year or so, and Rachel’s a very good rider. But they’re up against it with this bloke, I reckon. He has won at two miles, in the Sydney Cup last autumn, but his form has been pretty plain this prep. That said, he did run a 0.75 length second in the Moonee Valley Cup to Onesmoothoperator, who I give a big chance to in this race. But this horse is nine years old, and they rarely figure in the Cup.

4. VAUBAN (2)

$26 / $8

T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott; J: Blake Shinn

A lot of punters mightn’t like him, but I’m giving a real push to this horse. Yes, he’s been costly in his two Melbourne Cups, running 14th and 11th when favourite and third-favourite, but hear me out. He’s been switched from his Irish trainer to Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott since that second one, and they’ve got him going well. I really liked his run in The Metropolitan two starts back, when he didn’t have much luck but flew home from 12th at the 400 to finish a close-up fifth. He then ran 13th in the Caulfield Cup but it wasn’t as bad as that sounds. The Caulfield Cup is still the best guide to the Melbourne Cup, but this year’s edition was a strange one. There was no great pace on in the first half, and then one horse darted off to a big lead and caught everyone by surprise and the tempo suddenly increased. It was just messy. As a jockey, you want a nice, smooth, flowing race – especially with these tough European stayers who can go all day. He should get that this time, and I reckon he’s in it up to his ears. Will he run the trip out? We know he can, from his European form. Will he win with this sizeable weight of 56.5kg? Time will tell. But Blake Shinn is a great rider who’s won this before, and he’ll be giving him every chance. Good rides win the Cup. It’s a huge field, and if you’re in the ruck, like this horse will be, you’ve got to not only understand how your horse is travelling, coming to the turn you’ve got to be looking ahead and making sure you get around any horses that are tiring and slowing down. You’ve got to look at how the handful in front of you are travelling, and try to pick the ones who look like they’re about to get tired. Most horses will get space in the long Flemington straight, but your chances could be blown if you get dragged back heading for the home turn, and you have to stop and start your run again. Blake, like most experienced riders, knows this. And it’s a huge advantage having barrier two, to save ground. So I reckon this bloke’s a chance.

5. CHEVALIER ROSE (5)

$51 / $14

T: Hisashi Shimuzu; J: Damian Lane

This bloke’s form isn’t brilliant lately, but I never underestimate these Japanese horses. Everyone wrote off Warp Speed last year, at $26, but he ran a great second and was only beaten a nose. You know the Japanese horses they choose to bring here are going to be very tough competitors. And they’ve booked Damian Lane for the ride. He’s ridden a lot in Japan, and has had great success with horses from that country in Australia, winning a Cox Plate and a Caulfield Cup on them. So he has a good association with Japanese trainers, and they obviously like putting him on the right horses. This horse has won to 3600m, which is a great thing to have up your sleeve in a 3200m Melbourne Cup, which is as tough a race as there is anywhere. He doesn’t have wet form, which is a disadvantage, and I don’t have him in my top half dozen, but he’s drawn well in gate five and I wouldn’t write him off either.

6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE (9)

$8 / $3

T: Alessandro Botti; J: Stephane Pasquier

This French horse really caught my eye in the Caulfield Cup. Again, the way the race was run would have unsettled a lot of horses, but this stallion took it in his stride, and was powering home at the finish to get fourth place. It’s a big plus that he’s had a run here at all – let alone one that good. A lot of foreign horses go straight into the Cup without a local run. I reckon it’s a lot better if they get one under their belt to have a go under local conditions. Looking at the way he handled Caulfield, which can be tricky for newcomers because it’s a bit tight and turning, he’s gonna love Flemington, with its long straights and big gentle bend into the home turn. This horse is in the right age group, as a six-year-old stallion. He’s drawn perfectly in barrier nine. He’s won to 3000m in France and loves the wet, so I reckon he’s a very big chance.

First woman to win the Caulfield Cup! | 00:56

7. MIDDLE EARTH (13)

$34 / $10

T: Ciaron Maher; J: Ethan Brown

Three things this horse has going for him: He’s in the right demographic as a six-year-old stallion, Ciaron Maher is a freak of a trainer, and Ethan Brown is one of the best young riders this country has got. The horse has also won to 2816m in England, which is good form for this race. That said, his form since moving here has been a mid iffy. He ran 11th in the Caulfield Cup. Again, it was a scratchy old race, but I liked the way a few others were finishing better than this bloke. He’s not in my top half dozen.

8. MEYDAAN (22)

$19 / $6

T: Simon & Ed Crisford; J: James McDonald

Now here’s a horse I really like. His run in the Caulfield Cup was great, I thought. The jockey, Andrea Atzeni, might have liked his time over again, which can happen to the best of them. He had barrier five but got caught three and four wide and didn’t have cover for chunks of the race. Then, entering the home straight when we thought he’d go wide for clear running, he ducked back inside and didn’t have all that much room in the run home. But still, the horse kept coming and coming, and was only beaten 4.7 lengths. It was one of those Caulfield Cup runs you love to see from a Melbourne Cup perspective: he didn’t get in the placings but he was just grinding away, going through his gears, like the extra 800m and the far longer straight at Flemington will suit him down to the ground. Besides that, he gets probably the best rider in the world on his back this time in James McDonald. He doesn’t often ride down at 54kg, but it shows what he thinks of the horse that he’s doing it for this race. The downside is, he’s drawn gate 22. Luck in running plays an enormous part in the Melbourne Cup, and J-Mac will have his work cut out from there. But the good news is, he should be able to make sure he gets a nice, smooth, flowing run, and not be cluttered up amongst horses, which is how these European stayers like it. Good rides win the Cup, and there’s no better rider than J-Mac. The horse is from a strong stable, has some wet form in England, and I think he’s a huge chance.

9. ABSURDE (4)

$21 / $6

T: Willie Mullins; J: Kerrin McEvoy

This gelding is as tough as they come, and has performed well in his two Melbourne Cups, running seventh in 2023 and fifth last year. There’s a big difference this year – he’s had a local run leading in, which I reckon is important. And it was a good run too, running seventh in the Caulfield Cup. He’s another Irish/English stayer who probably didn’t appreciate the way that race was run, but he rolled his sleeves up and ran well. He’s with a master trainer in Ireland’s Willie Mullins, and has a great rider in Kerrin McEvoy. Macca knows his way around a Melbourne Cup, having won it three times. So I wouldn’t talk anyone out of backing this one. He goes alright in the wet, and has drawn beautifully in barrier four. He is eight, though, so for me he’s a place chance at best.

10. FLATTEN THE CURVE (17)

$34 / $10

T: Henk Grewe; J: Thore-Hammer Hansen

We haven’t seen this German horse before but looking at his record, you can tell he can stay all day. He’s won to 3700m, so you know he’ll get the trip. He had a stable change about a year ago and has been on fire since then, racing seven times for six wins. He loves the wet, but he has drawn gate 17. Those are the two things I never worried about when I was riding – the weather and the barrier draw. You just have to deal with what you’ve been given. Hopefully his jockey can find a good spot, although he’s also riding in his first Melbourne Cup. It’s a bit hard to line up his form, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the first six home.

11. LAND LEGEND (16)

$101 / $24

T: Chris Waller; J: Joao Moreira

Another from the stable of the maestro Chris Waller, and he has one of the world’s best riders on board in Brazil’s Joao Moreira. However, I don’t think this one will be in my Waller trifecta. He’s 100-to-1 for a reason. He did run a fair eighth in this race last year, but lately he’s been going ordinary. Ran last in the Caulfield Cup, and last in the Turnbull Stakes the start before that. Here’s one I would try to talk you out of backing.

12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (11)

$101 / $24

T: Ciaron Maher; J: Ben Melham

Another from the stable of Ciaron Maher, who knows what he’s doing, and Ben Melham is one of Melbourne’s finest. But this horse is now nine and probably his best days are behind him. Ran eighth of 11 in the Moonee Valley Cup, and that’s not the sort of form that screams “back me” in this. He does like the wet, but I’ll be leaving him alone.

Pride of Jenni dominates once again | 00:20

13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (24)

$101 / $24

T: Kris Lees; J: Tim Clark

No one knows more about winning Melbourne Cups than this horse’s owner Lloyd Williams, who’s got the record as an owner for winning seven of them, most recently with Twilight Payment in 2020. I’m not sure this will be one of his better chances though. Had bad luck when he clipped heels in The Metropolitan two starts back and had to be eased out of the race. But his last start was a sixth of eight in the Geelong Cup. He’s also drawn to start somewhere in the carpark, in gate 24, so I’m looking elsewhere.

14. HALF YOURS (8)

$6 / $2.50

T: Tony and Calvin McEvoy; J: Jamie Melham

Here’s the favourite for this year’s Cup, and he deserves to be favourite too. He’s ticked all the boxes. As I say, the Caulfield Cup is the most important lead-up race, and you can’t do better than winning it. It was a great performance, again in that messy race. Under that light weight of his, he looked the winner a long way out, before a couple came at him late, but he safely held them. And he doesn’t have much weight here either, at 53kg. He ran a huge race before that when fourth in the Turnbull, and won easily the start before over 2000m at Caulfield. So he’s a very progressive stayer who’s come a long way in a short space of time. He’s with great trainers and his rider Jamie Melham, well her record speaks for itself. Can she become the second woman to ride the winner of the Cup? She does need to give him a nice, relaxed, trouble-free ride; not stop-start and checking off heels – make sure everything’s fluent. But I’d back Jamie to produce a good ride. The big question mark of course is this is the horse’s first go past 2400m. But I heard Jamie say he’d get it no problems after the Caulfield Cup, and nobody gets a better feel for that sort of thing than a jockey. He’s drawn well in gate eight. A gate like that does make it so much easier, especially if there’s a doubt about getting the trip. Jamie should get an ideal spot from there where he can relax and breathe and save ground. So he’s a big chance.

15. MORE FELONS (23)

$81 / $20

T: Chris Waller; J: Tommy Berry

Here’s another runner with the Waller polish. He’s probably not Chris’s best chance though. And he’s got bad luck too! Last year, he ran really well in the Geelong Cup before drawing gate 23 at Flemington, where he ran a just-OK 12th. This year, he’s drawn gate 23 again! It’s very difficult from out there. I was lucky enough that for both my Cup winners, I had gate two. So it’s going to be hard for Tommy Berry from out there. This horse has run OK his past two starts, when fourth in The Metropolitan over 2400m, and again in Randwick’s St Leger, over 2600m. But I’d prefer others.

16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (6)

$18 / $6

T; Brian Ellison; J: Harry Coffey

I like this horse a lot. Last year he won the Geelong Cup really well and then ran 12th in the Melbourne Cup, which I thought was a fair effort. I reckon he’s going better this time around, and having that experience of last year under his belt will help him a lot. At his last start he scored a brilliant win in the Moonee Valley Cup. No horse has won the Moonee Valley Cup-Melbourne Cup double since Bart Cummings’ outstanding Kingston Rule in 1990 – whose record of 3 minutes 16.30 seconds still stands. I rode him in the Moonee Valley Cup but had another ride lined up in the Melbourne Cup, so Darren Beadman got to win on him. And yes it still bugs me, not to have been part of Bart’s dozen winners! Anyway, yes this horse was impressive at Moonee Valley, absolutely flying home to win it by three-quarters of a length. And he was very strong through the line and kept going after it, rather than just flopping in. Harry Coffey’s riding well and it’d be great to see him win this race. He’s got a light weight, a great gate, and I think he’s a top chance, although he doesn’t have a lot of wet track form.

17. FURTHUR (7)

$26 / $8

T: Andrew Balding; J: Michael Dee

Here’s one you’ve got to have respect for. He’s an English three-year-old, and they’ve had great success in this race in the recent past, winning with Rekindling and Cross Counter in 2017 and 2018. They usually haven’t raced much – this bloke’s only had eight starts – so they get in with a light weight, in this case 52kg. So it’s a good formula, and Andrew Balding is one of the best trainers they have over there. Again, he wouldn’t have come all this way if he didn’t think he was an ideal type. He’s won over 2715m and run second over 2816m at Royal Ascot in a Group 2, which is great form for this race. He’s drawn beautifully in gate seven, and I love the booking of Mickey Dee. He’s an excellent rider, very good and cool-headed in big races, which is what you want. The horse hasn’t had a run here, so you’re always flying blind a little bit, but I’ve got great trust in the trainer and jockey, so I wouldn’t rule him out.

18. PARCHMENT PARTY (3)

$41 / $11

T: William Mott; J: Johnny Velazquez

From the land of the stars and stripes, this is the first American horse to raid our great race. It’s a bit hard to line up his form, because mostly he’d raced on the dirt over there. What we do know is his trainer is in the Hall of Fame and his jockey is one of the best they’ve got, so I wouldn’t be underestimating them. He’s also drawn well in gate three. The doubts are how he’s going to go on the grass. Plus his trainer apparently was hoping for a dry and hard track – as close to dirt as possible – but it looks like being wet. So he’s not one of mine.

19. ATHABASCAN (1)

$101 / $24

T: John O’Shea and Tom Charlton; J: Declan Bates

Plusses: He’s drawn the inside gate, he’s with a good stable in O’Shea-Charlton, and he’s got Declan Bates, fresh from another brilliant front-running ride to get Pride Of Jenni home in the Empire Rose on Saturday. The downside is – everything else. His form has been pretty ordinary. He did run a three-quarter length second to Onesmoothoperator, who I like, in the Moonee Valley Cup, but he’s 100-1 for a reason.

Waller’s Autumn Glow wins Golden Eagle | 02:54

20. GOODIE TWO SHOES (20)

$41 / $11

T: Joseph O’Brien; J: Wayne Lordan

This mare can stay, having won over this trip in Ireland, where she’s also won a hurdle race over 3419m. So you know she’ll get the distance. She also goes alright in the wet. The query with her is: She’s from the same stable as Al Riffa, so has she been brought here just to set the pace, to make sure the race is run at a good tempo, to make sure it’s smooth and a good staying test, which is how Al Riffa will like it, when he presumably comes from the back having drawn barrier 19? The fact trainer Joseph O’Brien has brought jockey Wayne Lordan out from Ireland also suggests that this mare will be a pacemaker, since he knows Lordan well and presumably trusts him to set a pace. Tempo is such a key ingredient in racing, especially in staying races. This mare has drawn out wide in gate 20, so she’ll have to work to get across and lead if she is the pacemaker, so you can expect her to get tired late. Sometimes the pacemaker can spring a surprise, like the understudy upstaging the main actor, and she’s got a tiny weight of 51.5kg, so I wouldn’t talk anyone out of her. But I can’t fit her into my top four.

21. RIVER OF STARS (14)

$17 / $5

T: Chris Waller; J: Beau Mertens

This one’s definitely going into my Waller trifecta. She ran enormous in the Caulfield Cup, when she got second, only half a length off Half Yours. She relished the handicap conditions that day when she had 53.5kg, and she gets in two kilos lighter here. She can stay, having run third in the Sydney Cup over this trip last autumn, and she has wet track form. She’s an import from Europe and she’s been here a year now, so will have acclimatised. It can take a while for these horses to settle in and hit their straps, especially mares. In saying that, the Sydney Cup was only her second run in Australia, so she clearly loves the 3200m. She’s got a very capable rider in Beau Mertens, and a good middle barrier in 14. So I think she’s in this with a big chance.

22. ROYAL SUPREMACY (21)

$31 / $9

T: Ciaron Maher; J: Robbie Dolan

Another European import in the Ciaron Maher stable, which is flying at the moment. The horse has been in work for a long time, starting this preparation in May, but Maher is a master at keeping them up. He turned in a big run in the Caulfield Cup when fifth, boxing on strong at the end, and he’s got a tiny weight here of 51kg. The big downer though – he’s drawn gate 21. Robbie Dolan was the hero last year aboard Knight’s Choice at even longer odds than this one, but he had gate five. Once again, he’s gonna need a lot of luck in running, but he does have good wet track form. He’s not in my top four but I’m not saying he’s no chance.

23. TORRANZINO (18)

$31 / $9

T: Paul Preusker; J: Celine Gaudray

This six-year-old comes from a good staying stable, and has been in pretty good form. He ran second in The Bart Cummings over 2520m at $71 and then won the Geelong Cup by half a length. The winner of that race has often done well in this one. However, it wasn’t a great edition of the race this year, with only eight starters, and he faces a huge class rise here. He also hasn’t been beyond that 2520m. His jockey Celine Gaudray is a very good rider – another trying to become the second female rider to win the Cup – but she’s pretty inexperienced at age 24, though I’m wishing her the best of luck. She’ll need it from that wide barrier too. Rough place hope.

Torranzino books Melbourne Cup ticket | 00:30

24. VALIANT KING (10)

$7.50 / $2.90

T: Chris Waller; J: Jye McNeil

Here’s the one I reckon is Waller’s top seed. This European import came here to run sixth in the Caulfield Cup in 2023, then needed a year off, then looked pretty ordinary last spring, and so he came into this one at big odds. But he’s a different horse this year. It can take a while for the imports to really settle in, acclimatise, and hit their straps, but it looks like Waller has got him going on all cylinders now. Partly, the blinkers he put on him at the start of this preparation appear to have worked wonders. He was still a $61 shot in The Bart Cummings two starts ago, but he bolted home by almost three lengths. He then showed that was no fluke in the Caulfield Cup, when he powered home for third at $26. Everyone’s taken notice now, which is why he’s around the $7.50 mark for this race. He still gets in on a tiny weight, of 51kg. Luckily Jye McNeil, who’s ridden him in those past two starts, can make the weight. Jye’s a great rider, which he showed in winning the Cup in 2020 by leading all the way on Twilight Payment. The horse has good wet form, will be better for his first experience at this race last year, and on top of everything else, has drawn well in gate 10. He’s a very big chance.

TIPS: 1. Meydaan; 2. Onesmoothoperator; 3. Presage Nocturne; 4. Al Riffa;

Best roughie: Vauban