Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society raised it 18 and 24 month rates to 3.5% today, and this overall update might be helpful. Meanwhile, ASB has cut its SavingsPlus potential rate by -15 bps to 1.08%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

COMING BACK
There was a big jump in residential building consents issued in September, and the building industry could be headed for an upturn. The uptick is largest in Auckland, but also very noticeable in Otago (Queenstown-Wanaka). Much of the momentum is coming from consents for both townhouses and apartments.

ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN SIDEWAYS DATA
For non-residential consents, it’s a story of ‘tracking sideways’ with the underlying trend remaining soft. But September did bring a large increase in office space being consented in Auckland, one of the few bright spots.

NZX50 HANGS IN THERE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index has recovered from a drop this morning in the ongoing Monday session, now +0.1% positive. That puts it +1.3% higher over the past five working days. It is up +3.8% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% so far today. Kathmandu, Mainfreight, Vulcan Steel and Kiwi Property Group advance, while F&P Healthcare, Port of Tauranga, Freightways and Skellerup are declining.

HOLDING ITS PROFITABILITY
Westpac reported its annual results today to September 2025 for both its Group, and for New Zealand. Westpac New Zealand’s annual profit fell slightly to $1.2 bln as expenses rose. But its net interest margin increased +15 basis points.

SHORTER & SHORTER
Customer deposits at banks are getting even more short-term. There is $448.3 bln in ‘non-market funding’ in the banking system, and 72.9% of that is on 3 months or less. That is the most since April 2023, which was on the downside of the pandemic twist. Apart from that, it is the highest since March 2016.

RECOVERY
Australia also released September residential building consent data today and it jumped +12% from August, up +15% from September a year ago. This activity has been particularly volatile over the past few months, so the September surge is actually more just a recovery rather than a serious push higher. Much of their recent gains are for townhouses and apartments too. The most impressive gains are in Victoria where a real resurgence seems to be underway (despite their ugly union-mafia (CFMEU) control of their building trades).

INFLATION UP IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, there was more evidence of higher & rising inflation, although this data isn’t really sounding warning bells. The Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded an increase in monthly inflation for October, primarily influenced by higher recreation and housing related prices. The monthly cost of living also rose. Annual headline inflation as recorded by the Inflation Gauge is slightly above the top-end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band.

JOB ADS DOWN IN AUSTRALIA, AGAIN
Job ads fell -2.2% in October from September in the ANZ-Indeed tracking, following a revised -3.5% drop in the previous month. This marked the fourth straight monthly decline, reinforcing signs of a loosening labour market despite elevated inflation.

NO REAL GROWTH
So it will be no surprise to know that household spending is rising only at about the rate of [household] inflation.

AUSSIE FACTORIES TURN QUIETER
But the S&P Global factory PMI for Australia is sounding a bit more of a strident warning for October. It recorded its first fall in manufacturing output in four months driven by the fastest retreat in new orders since December 2024. Employment headcounts declined for the first time since February.

THE NEIGHBOURHOOD IS MIXED
And the same S&P Global factory PMIs for Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia all contracted, even if only slightly. But this measure for Indonesia turned more positive. In Vietnam the upturn was sharp, hitting a 15 month high.

STILL EXPANDING, ON DOMESTIC DEMAND
In China, their factory sector is still expanding, although at a slower pace, according to the S&P Global (RatingDog) private factory PMI. New orders from domestic customers rose, but new export orders fell at their fastest pace since May. The similar official survey had this sector contracting.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates stayed up on Friday and may have gained a bit more today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp on Friday to 2.52%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.34%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.13%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Friday’s end of month rate is down -3 bps to 4.06%. The UST 10yr yield is holding up at 4.10%, consolidating the general shift higher.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now unchanged in Monday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo isn’t trading, closed for Culture Day. Hong Kong is up +0.4% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2% to start their Monday trade. Singapore is up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street is still on its weekend but the futures market suggests it will open tomorrow with a strong +0.8% gain, likely aided by the Berkshire Hathaway result.

OIL FIRMISH
The oil price in the US is firmish, now at just over US$61/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$65/bbl both marginally firmer than this morning’s level.

CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
There have been a few trades today with prices holding at $53/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$5 from this morning’s open, now at US$3996/oz.

NZD HOLDS, BUT UNDER MINOR PRESSURE
The Kiwi dollar is holding if slightly softer from this morning at just under 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 61.8.

BITCOIN SOFTER
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,622 and down -0.4% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.6%.

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