The eventual track condition at Flemington at 3pm on Tuesday will prove a major factor in determining the Melbourne Cup winner, with the track certain to be rain affected.

Most horses can handle a Soft track – just seven of the 2025 Melbourne Cup contenders have not won on it – but once the track gets into the Heavy range, the form guide becomes more and more irrelevant.

The Melbourne Cup has rarely been run in wet conditions so far this century, but it is worth noting the prices of the placegetters when the Cup most recently raced on a Soft 7 in 2022: Gold Trip won at $21 from Emissary at $26 and High Emocean at $41.

So, if the track dirties up, don’t be afraid to look left field for the potential placegetters.

NOTABLE SOFT-TRACK PERFORMERS: 

Al Riffa has been first or second in four of his seven Soft-track runs; Arapaho has won six of 19 Soft-track starts; Vauban has won six races on Soft tracks and placed in 10 of 12 Soft-track runs; Presage Nocturne has missed the place on Soft tracks just once in nine starts; River Of Stars has placed in five of seven Soft-track starts in England and France; and Torranzino has won three Soft-track races including last start in the G3 Geelong Cup.

HEAVY TRACK WINS:

Arapaho (two), Flatten The Curve (two).

UNBEATEN ON HEAVY:

Parchment Party (one run, one win); and Half Yours (one run, one win).

OTHER HEAVY TRACK PERFORMANCES OF NOTE:

Smokin’ Romans has run first or second in four-of-five Heavy track runs; and Presage Nocturne has run first or second in three-of-four Heavy track runs.

BOTTOM LINE

If it gets into the Heavy range, promote Arapaho ($41) as his extreme wet-track form is strong. Last time on a Heavy 10 he ran third to Via Sistina and Aeliana over 1400 metres and he won the G2 Zipping Classic last year on a Heavy 8, while he also won by 7.5 lengths on a Heavy track in Sydney in 2022. Vauban’s ($26) wet-track form over a long career is superb and it might be the key to him unlocking his best. If the track becomes bottomless, you could do worse than throw a dollar or two on Smokin’ Romans ($61).