On Tuesday, 24 horses will line up for battle over 3200 metres around Flemington for the Melbourne Cup.

Rain has been falling in Melbourne, raising the prospect that the track might be rated as at least soft for the start of the meeting. Flemington drains well, so if the rain stops there’s a chance it might improve by the time of the Cup.

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Here’s why every horse can – and can’t – win the big race.

1.AL RIFFA (Barrier 19) Approx odds: $7/$2.80

Good: 7:3-3-1 Soft: 7:2-2-0 Heavy: 0:0-0-0

FOR: Tough and classy Irish stayer, trained by a master of them in Joseph O’Brien, who’s won this race twice before, since 2017. Has one of the world’s best jockeys in Melbourne-based Mark Zahra, who’s also won this race twice before, since 2022, and is in red hot form after riding four winners at Derby Day on Saturday. The horse is also in great touch, winning his past two starts – the Curragh Cup by 4 len with 62kg, then Irish St Leger by 5 len under 61.5kg. As good on soft as on good going. Right sex, with stallions winning the Cup 71 times, the most of any gender. Right age group, with 6yos having won seven times since 2010. Five of them were European 5yos like this bloke. (They’re biologically five, but have their age rounded up once in the southern hemisphere). For the superstitious, No.1 is the second most successful saddlecloth number, with 11 wins, the latest in 2022.

AGAINST: Good horses get topweight (and No.1) for a reason – class – but 59kg is a lot to carry in any Melbourne Cup, and even more so on a wet track. He’s untried on heavy, so that’s a doubt if it pours, but even if it’s only soft, 59kg seems a lot more over 3200m than when the track is firm and dry. History is against him, with no horse carrying this much weight to win since 1969. On top of all that, he’s drawn a horrible barrier in gate 19, although that has sprung three winners, the latest 2018.

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2025 Melbourne Cup barrier draw | 00:32

2. BUCKAROO (12) $11/$3.90

Good: 19:3-4-3 Soft: 9:1-2-2 Heavy: 2:1-0-0

FOR: European import with a touch of class, shown again with his last-start second in the Cox Plate, finishing only a few centimetres behind Australia’s Horse of the Year Via Sistina. Is one of five starters for master trainer Chris Waller, who tends to win everything. Can go on soft or heavy. Has a great jockey in Craig Williams, who won this in 2018, and a decent middle barrier in 12, which has had three winners, including in 2020. No.2 goes OK, with eight wins, equal fifth best. Geldings have second-best record, with 55 wins.

AGAINST: Distance x weight x wet track. He jumps almost 1200m from the 2040m of the Cox Plate, and in last year’s Melbourne Cup he wasn’t finishing all that strongly when placed ninth. Plus he’s got a fair bit of weight with 57kg which, as with Al Riffa, will feel like more over a wet two miles.

3. ARAPAHO (15) $34/$10

Good: 21:2-2-1 Soft: 19:6-2-1 Heavy: 9:2-2-2

FOR: Has won over the trip, in this year’s Sydney Cup in April, running it out strongly to score by 3 lens. Loves wet tracks. Good trainer in Bjorn Baker, and a capable rider in Rachel King – one for those who like backing female jockeys in this race. No.3 saddlecloth has been OK, with five winners, the latest in 2023.

AGAINST: Age shall weary them. He won the Sydney Cup as an 8yo, but he’s nine now, and no 9yo has ever won this. It would be a real wet track bolter’s result if he was to break that history. But he still has to carry a hefty 56.5kg over two miles on a wet track. Barrier 15 hasn’t had a winner of this race since 1971 – that’s the longest Cup barrier drought there is – and has had only four in total. Ran in the Cup in 2022 and came only 11th. Ran in the Bendigo Cup last start and finished a plain eighth.

4. VAUBAN (2) $23/$7

Good: 15:3-2-2 Soft: 12:6-2-2 Heavy: 1:0-1-0

FOR: Top stable in Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Waterhouse won it with Fiorente in 2013. And an excellent jockey in Blake Shinn, Melbourne’s premier rider of last season, who won this in 2008. Was a top stayer in Ireland and England when brought out by his former trainer for the past two Cups. Can go in heavy or soft. Has saddlecloth No.4 – the best one there is in this race, with 12 wins, the latest in 2021. Has a good inside barrier in two. Turned in a good run two starts back with fifth in Randwick’s The Metropolitan (2400m), when blocked for room in the straight. Has won to 3400m, so will get the distance.

AGAINST: His two runs in this race, as favourite or close to it, when he let us all down in running 14th and 11th. Hard to trust him on that, although now he’s older he might appreciate the wet track. That’s another worry though – only three 8yos have won this race. Also turned in an ordinary run last start when 13th in the Caulfield Cup. And barrier two looks good, but somehow has managed only two winners of this race – the equal-lowest. The latest was in 1997, and that took a champion in Might And Power and Jimmy Cassidy.

5. CHEVALIER ROSE (5) $51/$11

Good: 30:3-5-2 Soft: 1:0-0-0 Heavy: 0:0-0-0

FOR: Japanese stayer and they breed them tough there and bring the right ones here. Delta Blues won this race in 2006, beating another Japanese horse (Pop Rock) into second. Warp Speed ran a narrow second last year. Trainer Hisashi Shimuzu brought the right horse to win the Caulfield Cup in 2019 in Mer De Glace. Also had the same big race jockey aboard as today in Damian Lane, who’s ridden a lot in Japan and has a strong record with Japanese horses there and here. Horse is a stallion, and he’ll get the distance no worries, having won to 3600m. Barrier five and No.5 has some symmetry for you numerologists, and both go alright. Gate five is the most successful in the race with 10 winners, including last year’s. No.5 has won eight times, equal fifth best, the latest in 2014.

AGAINST: The wet track. Japanese horses don’t see a lot of them, and their tracks are in fact infamously hard, and this bloke has no wet form to speak of, so there’s a big leap of faith. He’s another 8yo too. Recent form disappointing, with a 12th and a 14th in his past two starts. Even though they were over unsuitably short distances, 2200m and 2000m, you’d have liked to have seen more. The start before, in May, he ran seventh in the major Japanese staying race, the Tenno Sho (3200m), which sounds alright but he was beaten 10 lengths.

Japanese horse Chevalier Rose. (Photo by William WEST / AFP)Source: AFP

6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE (9) $8.50/$3

Good: 3:0-0-1 Soft: 9:3-3-2 Heavy: 4:1-2-0

FOR: Quality French stayer – a 6yo stallion – who loves the wet, and has performed in some top staying races back home. Was a close-up third two runs back in the Prix Kergorlay (3000m), which is one of their best staying races. He also won over that distance four starts back, and has been placed at 3100m in a Group 1. So he should get the trip. Turned in an impressive trial for his when he finished hard for fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Great to see the Europeans have an Australian run before the Melbourne Cup, and that was a beauty. If you like grey horses, here’s one for you. And if you like nonsense, there’s an old racing saying that you should back greys in the wet. Like most racing sayings, it might not stand up to scientific analysis, but oh well. Only six greys have won the Cup. The last was in 2007, but the one before that – Subzero in 1992 – was indeed in the wet. This horse has an experienced, 47yo jockey in Stephane Pasquier, who’s ridden him in his past four starts, has ridden plenty of Group 1 winners (34) and comes here in form, having won two-from-two at Lyon last Thursday. Trainer Alessandro Botti has a strong reputation too. No.6 is equal third-best in this race with 10 wins. Barrier nine has had only four wins, but the last was that last grey to win – Efficient in 2007.

AGAINST: Not a huge amount. It’s the jockey’s first look at a Melbourne Cup, but he rode him well enough at Caulfield. Horse hasn’t been past 3100m before, and this is a tough 3200. But it’s only an extra 100m. OK, we’re clutching at straws really. This horse is a very good chance.

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McDonald drawn at barrier 22 for Cup | 00:32

7. MIDDLE EARTH (13) $34/$10

Good: 13:4-1-2 Soft: 3:1-0-0 Heavy: 0:0-0-0

FOR: Right age and sex, as a 6yo stallion. With Australia’s most successful trainer of last season in Ciaron Maher, and has a fine jockey in Ethan Brown. Decent middle gate of 13, which has had five winners including in 2022. Has won to 2816m in England before being imported here. Caulfield Cup effort was a bit plain, but he’s had another race since then to top-up his fitness, running third over 2040m.

AGAINST: Only turned in moderate run when 11th in the Caulfield Cup. Failed at his longest trip (2916m). For the superstitious, No.7 has won only twice in the whole history of this race, the latest in 1981. Most importantly – has not much wet track form, with one win on soft, at his third start in July 2023, winning by 0.1 lens at Newmarket, England, over 2414m.

8. MEYDAAN (22) $23/$6

Good: 10:1-1-1 Soft: 2:0-1-0 Heavy: 0:0-0-0

FOR: Quality English stayer with successful father and son trainers Simon and Ed Crisford. Turned in great trial for this in the Caulfield Cup, when he got a bad ride, being trapped three and four wide when he only had gate five to contend with, under international jockey Andrea Atzeni. Despite that, he was still coming down the straight, finishing ninth in a way that suggested he’d love the extra 800m here. Our very own (and formerly New Zealand’s very own) James McDonald goes aboard this time, probably the best rider in the world, and he’s won this before, in 2021. He can be relied upon to give him a good ride. The horse is a 5yo gelding, which is a good demographic. Saddlecloth No.8 works, with eight winners – equal fifth-most – the latest in 2010.

AGAINST: The big ones are gate 22 and wet track form. That’s a shocking barrier, so J-Mac will have his work cut out, likely going back and having to come with a very long run from about the 700m mark. Gate 22 has hatched four winners, so it’s possible, but the latest was in 2000. Horse doesn’t have much wet track form to speak of, but did run second over 2414m in a Group 3 at Goodwood on soft going three starts back. Hasn’t started on heavy. That doesn’t scream out “wet tracker”, but England’s softs are like our heavies, so it’s probably excusable. Hasn’t raced past 2816m, but that was an OK fourth in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot, so it was a high quality affair. Trainers wouldn’t have come all this way if they didn’t think he’d get 3200m, and again, his Caulfield Cup run suggested he would.

9. ABSURDE (4) $16/$4.80

Good: 16:5-5-2 Soft: 6:1-0-1 Heavy: 2:1-0-0

FOR: Canny trainer in Willie Mullins who loves coming here from Ireland to try to win this race. Good jockey in Kerrin McEvoy who’s won it three times before. This horse tries his heart out every time, including when seventh and fifth in this race in the past two years, and when seventh at his last start in the Caulfield Cup. Plus, that was the first time he’s had a lead-up run to Flemington in Australia, which should help. Great inside barrier in four, which has hatched six winners, the latest in 2017. Goes in wet or dry conditions.

AGAINST: This is a different preparation, with that Caulfield Cup run, but has it come too late? He’s an 8yo now, and only three of those have won this. He’ll produce his usual honest run, but will some younger whippersnappers have more oomph at the finish? Also for the numbers types, No.9 is going through the third-longest drought among all of them in this race, going back to 1957.

TRACKED: Knight’s Choice insane Cup run | 01:07

10. FLATTEN THE CURVE (17) $21/$6

Good: 7:2-2-0 Soft: 14:2-3-2 Heavy: 8:2-1-1

FOR: This German horse’s jockey is called Thore Hammer-Hansen! Come on – how good is that? He sounds like a fearsome rival to come up against, if not on the racetrack, then in the WWF. But he can ride too, being Germany’s premier jockey last year. And trainer Henk Grewe may have only won six Group 1s but looks like he knows what he’s doing. This horse had won two of his first 34 starts, but since being switched to Grewe has won six of seven. They include a 3700m race in France so – distance? Tick. Wet track? Tick. He loves it. He’s a 7yo gelding, 6.5 biologically, so that’s alright. Saddlecloth No.10 has an OK record, with four winners, the latest in 2008. And a German horse has won this before: Protectionist in 2014. AGAINST: Possible class factor. He hasn’t contested a Group 1 before, but has won a G2 in Germany, over this trip. But the biggest worry is probably gate 17. That’s about as wide as you’d want it, especially for a foreign jockey having his first ride under Australian conditions, and in a 24-horse Melbourne Cup, no less. Four winners have come from that gate though, so it’s not the worst, and the latest was 2016.

11. LAND LEGEND (16) $51/$14

Good: 14:2-1-0 Soft: 3:0-0-1 Heavy: 1:0-0-1

FOR: Champion trainer in Chris Waller and one of the world’s best riders in Brazil’s Joao Moreira. Has fair wet track form. No.11 has won eight times – equal fifth-best – and is in form, having scored last year, and with a $91 chance in Knight’s Choice, no less. Ran a solid eighth in this race last year after working hard up around the front. Is a 6yo, so in the right age bracket.

AGAINST: Everything else. Recent form has been woeful, including a last of 18 last start in the Caulfield Cup, and a last of 14 the start before that. Wet form just so-so. And gate 16 does him no favours either, though one of its four winners came only two years ago.

12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (11) $61/$16

Good: 30:5-2-3 Soft: 16:3-4-0 Heavy: 5:1-3-0

FOR: Gun trainer in Ciaron Maher, who won this in 2022. Goes well in the wet. Gate 11 has had great success, with nine winners (second-best), the latest in 2010. Ran a fair seventh in this race, also in 2022. No.12 has a strong record, with 10 wins (equal-third), the latest in 2003.

AGAINST: Quite a lot. The fact he ran it in 2022 hints that he’s getting long in the tooth, and he is, as one from the nine-year-old bracket who have never won this race. Last start 8th of 11 in Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). Up in class here on past few runs.

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Smokin Romans. Picture: Michael KleinSource: News Corp Australia

13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (24) $61/$16

Good: 9:2-2-1 Soft: 7:1-1-1 Heavy: 0:0-0-0

FOR: Is owned by Lloyd Williams, a wealthy Melburnian who knows how to win his city’s big race, having done so seven times – an owners’ record. Goes alright on soft tracks. No.13 might be unlucky for some but has had six winners, the latest in 2001.

AGAINST: Again, quite a bit. Preparation has been bumpy. Was eased out of the race two starts back in The Metropolitan (2400m) when he clipped the heels of one in front of him in the home straight. That was bad luck, but his subsequent sixth of eight in the Geelong Cup was just bad. On top of unconvincing form, he’s got the widest gate there is. Surprisingly, three horses have won from there in the 67 years since barrier stalls came along. But the latest was in 1973, and you’d have to be in cracking form to do it, and he’s not.

14. HALF YOURS (8) $7.50/$2.90

Good: 8:3-2-0 Soft: 5:3-1-0 Heavy: 1:1-0-0

FOR: Quite a lot. Looks a very exciting stayer on the rise, having won five of his past eight starts, including – most importantly – the most significant lead-up race to this one, the Caulfield Cup, in impressive style after a tough run. Is bred to stay. His dad’s a son of Teofilo, who’s sired three Melbourne Cup winners, all since 2018. His mum’s dad was the dad of the great Makybe Diva, the only three-time Melbourne Cup winner. Has drawn ideally in gate eight, which has six winners, the latest in 2008. Saddlecloth No.14 goes alright, with five winners, the latest in 2012. Top trainers in Tony and Calvin McEvoy, and if you’re keen on backing female jockeys in this race, Jamie Melham is one of the best in the land. She’s also attempting to become the second woman rider to win this – a neat 10 years since Michelle Payne. Also, the horse loves the wet and he’s a 5yo gelding, a winning demographic. AGAINST: As with so many in a Melbourne Cup, it’s the question of distance. He’s been impressive with his wins, but hasn’t raced beyond 2400m. His trainers and jockey say he’ll get the 3200m, but until you see them do it, there has to be a doubt. But that’s about it. He’s in this up to his ears.

Half Yours. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos via Getty Images)Source: Supplied

15. MORE FELONS (23) $51/$14

Good: 13:2-1-0 Soft: 7:2-2-0 Heavy: 0:0-0-0

FOR: Master trainer Chris Waller, who won this in 2021. Capable, experienced rider in Tommy Berry. This British import has won to 3381m in England, and while that was a hurdle, he should get this trip. Recent form has been fair, making good ground for fourth in The Metropolitan (2400m) and finishing on for another close-up fourth in Randwick’s St Leger (Gr 3, 2600m). Goes well on the soft. No.15 has an OK record, with five wins, though the latest was 1991.

AGAINST: Faces a rise in class on those past two runs. Ran in this race last year and came a middling 12th. That was from gate 23 though – but guess what? He’s done it again, with the same barrier. It’s tough to win from there. It’s the equal worst in Cup history, with just two winners and none since 1976.

16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (6) $31/$9

Good: 15:2-0-3 Soft: 3:0-1-0 Heavy: 0:0-0-0

FOR: Classy looking British stayer who produced a great trial for this by flying home to take the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) by 0.75 lens last start. Came out last year too and won the Geelong Cup (2400m), also very impressively, by 2.25 lens. Has won to 3319m in England, so should be able to get the trip. Canny trainer in Brian Ellison, and jockey Harry Coffey would be a great feelgood story, having worked hard to succeed (3 G1s) despite battling cystic fibrosis. Has drawn an inside barrier.

AGAINST: His run in last year’s Cup didn’t impress much, when a 5.4 len 12th, even though he didn’t get much room at the top of the straight. Hasn’t had much exposure on wet tracks, so hard to line that up. For the numbers people: Barrier 6 sounds good but has only had three winners, and none since 1965! That means it had three in the first eight runnings, and none in the past 50! Might have used up its luck early doors. Saddlecloth 16 has fared even worse, with just three winners since the first Cup in 1861, and none since 1972.

Photo finish decides 2024 Melbourne Cup! | 01:12

17. FURTHUR (7) $31/$8

Good: 5:2-1-0 Soft: 2:0-0-0 Heavy: 1:0-1-0

FOR: Is in a great demographic, being an English 3yo male (though he’s called a 4yo stallion down here). They’re inexperienced – eight starts for this one – so they get a light weight (52kg in this case). They’ve gone great at this race in recent years, winning in 2017 and 2018, and with a narrow second in 2020. Trained by one of Britain’s best in Andrew Balding, who wouldn’t have come all this way if he didn’t think this was the right horse for the job. And has a terrific big race jockey aboard in Michael Dee, though he’s yet to win a Cup. Nice inside gate in seven (four winners, latest 2004), and saddlecloth No.17 has gone alright (six winners, latest 2016). Is also a grey if you like backing them, especially in the wet. AGAINST: Still has to be some distance doubt. He’s run second at 2816m, in good G2 company at Royal Ascot, but his longest race has been 2921m and he flopped, running second-last in the St Leger at his last start, in England. That’s a G1, so an esteemed race, but it was also on a soft track, which he’s likely to meet in the Cup. At his only other soft track run, he came last. Has run second on heavy, though, but was well beaten. So the jury has to be out regarding him on rain-affected going.

18. PARCHMENT PARTY (3) $51/$14

Firm: 10:3-1-1 Good: 0:0-0-0 Soft: 0:0-0-0 Heavy: 1:1-0-0

FOR: Has shown good staying form in the US, scoring over 2816m twice, and at the last two of his 11 starts in fact. Trainer William Mott and jockey John Velazquez are in American racing’s Hall of Fame. Horse has won four times, and took the prestigious Belmont Gold Cup two starts back to win a ticket into this. Tiny weight (52kg) after having 56kg in his past two starts, and has an inside gate in three, which goes OK with five winners, the latest 2002. AGAINST: He’s the first American to contest the Cup, and maybe we’ve learned why that is. He had to first go to England, to sit in quarantine for a couple of weeks, then complete the long flight to Melbourne. You’ve got to hope he’s overcome all that. Plus, he’s a dirt track horse – hence all those stats for “Firm” above, though that Belmont Cup was mud. Mott was hoping Flemington would be dry and hard, the closest likeness grass has to dirt, but instead he’s facing a soft surface. And for the numbers people, No.18 has only won this race twice since its inception in 1861 – the equal lowest – and the latest was 1932!

19. ATHABASCAN (1) $61/$16

Good: 21:1-4-0 Soft: 17:3-2-4 Heavy: 1:0-0-0

FOR: Now, here’s one for the superstitious. Gate 1 has had four wins, the latest in 2015, with Prince Of Penzance. No.19 sounds obscure but it’s had seven winners, the last being – Prince Of Penzance. That horse was $101, and this horse might start around that mark too. Can a bolter wearing No.19 win from gate 1 again a neat decade later? Probably not. But, this horse has been placed at 3200m, in last year’s Sydney Cup, has a tiny weight (51.5kg), and will save a lot of ground sticking to the rails, most likely. He’s in a strong Sydney stable with John O’Shea and Tom Charlton, and he’s got the jockey of pin-up horse Pride Of Jenni (the one that leads by a mile and often hangs on), in Declan Bates. Fair second at last start in Moonee Valley Cup. Goes well on soft going.

AGAINST: This is far tougher than the Moonee Valley Cup, and his form before that was ordinary, including a 14th in The Metropolitan the start before. He was in good form two years ago but his best days are probably behind him, now he’s seven.

Athabascan (FR) ridden by Daniel Stackhouse on the first lap during the running of Ladbrokes Moonee Valley Gold Cup. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

20. GOODIE TWO SHOES (20) $31/$9

FOR: Another in the stable of Ireland’s Joseph O’Brien, who’s won this twice before (see Al Riffa), and a good, experience rider in Wayne Lordan. She’s a 7yo mare (6.5 biologically), if you like backing mares. Decent soft form and a small weight of 51.5kg, which she’ll love after carrying 59-61kg in her past three runs in Ireland and England. That’s included a win over 3218m, plus she’s won a hurdle over 3419m, so she’ll get this trip. Goes well on the soft. Another for the numerologists, as she’s No.20 from gate 20.

AGAINST: No.20 has only won this three times – the latest in 1897, which is the Cup’s longest saddlecloth drought! And gate 20 also has just three wins, and none since 1988. It’s pretty rare to bring a mare from Europe for this race, and so she might just be here as a pacemaker for her more fancied stablemate, Al Riffa – to go hard up front to make everything’s smooth in the race and horses aren’t stopping and starting. Still, some of those have ended up upstaging their more vaunted fellow competitors. Trouble is, though, that she has gate 20, and will need to do a lot of work early to get across to the front from there. Will love that tiny weight though. Also, only 14 mares have won this race, and only three this century.

21. RIVER OF STARS

Good: 10:3-1-3 Soft: 9:0-4-1 Heavy: 1:0-1-0

FOR: Another with the master trainer Chris Waller, racing for the Yulong empire, and that’s a lethal combination. This 7yo mare (6.5 biologically) can stay all day. Imported from Britain, she ran a great second over this trip in the Sydney Cup at just her second Australian run, so she’ll get the journey. That’s impressive for a second run after a lengthy break, since horses can go a bit flat after a first-up run. She also produced a terrific performance last start when second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), showing how much she appreciates staying handicaps, after a dud run over 2000m under set weights conditions. Decent middle barrier (14). It’s had four winners and the latest was one of the greatest mares of all, the only triple Cup winner, Makybe Diva. Goes OK in the wet, and has a tiny weight, which also helps in the wet.

AGAINST: She did have a cushy run in the Caulfield Cup, saving ground on the fence from an inside barrier. Mind you, she did to it tougher in that Sydney Cup run over 3200m. Again, the history of mares in this race isn’t great, with only 14 winners. And for the numbers minded, No.21 is the equal worst in this race’s history, with just two winners, though it did get up relatively recently, in 2009.

22. ROYAL SUPREMACY (21) $26/$7

Good: 6:2-2-1 Soft: 6:1-1-1 Heavy: 1:1-0-0

FOR: Good run last start when fifth in the Caulfield Cup. Trained by one of the best in Ciaron Maher, and the jockey Robbie Dolan is in form in this race, having won it last year on bolter Knight’s Choice. Before the Caulfield Cup, won three out of four including The Metropolitan at Randwick, beating a few rivals in this race. Can go on soft and heavy. Five-year-old gelding – tick. No.22 goes alright, with five wins for the lightweight hopes, the latest 2017. And while barrier 21 sounds rough, it’s been the most successful among gates 14 and wider, with five wins, the latest in 2019. Goes well on wet tracks.

AGAINST: Despite its good record, gate 21 still presents some difficult work for Dolan. The pair had a nice run along the rail in the Caulfield Cup. And given this horse hasn’t raced beyond 2615m (second in England), he should need to save as much ground as he can if he’s to get the 3200m. Horse has also been in work for a long time, with his campaign starting in May. Cup horses usually kick off in August. Will this be a bridge too far?

Royal Supremacy wins Race 9 Asahi Super Dry Metropolitan during Sydney Racing at Royal Randwick Racecourse on October 04, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

23. TORRANZINO (18) $34/$9

Good: 19:3-4-1 Soft: 13:3-3-1 Heavy: 1:0-0-0

FOR: A New Zealand-bred, and they can breed a stayer, and he’s in a renowned staying stable with Paul Preusker. In form, winning the Geelong Cup (2400m) last start, and running second in The Bart Cummings (2520m) the start before, beaten only by Valiant King, who’s a $9 shot here. Has excellent record on soft going. Ridden by Celine Gaudray, if you like backing women jockeys. No.23 sounds obscure but has had four winners, including in 2019. AGAINST: The Geelong Cup was a weak race this year, and this is a huge class rise on that and The Bart Cummings. Also, he hasn’t been past that 2520m, so there’s a distance doubt. Gaudray is a fine young rider but not known for big race success just yet. Barrier 18 is a killer, with just two winners – the equal lowest – though it scored in 2021.

24. VALIANT KING (10) $9.50/$3.40

Good: 12:1-1-2 Soft: 6:1-1-1 Heavy: 1:0-1-0

FOR: After dawdling about for a while, this British import has boomed this spring, after master trainer Chris Waller put blinkers on him. Won the Bart Cummings, as a $61 bolter, then ran third in Caulfield Cup at $26, coming from 16th at the 400m and beaten only 1.46 lens. He’s now at single figure odds for this, reflecting his form and the fact he still gets in with a tiny weight of 51kg. Aside the Waller touch, he has a very fine jockey in Jye McNeil, who produced one of the great Cup rides to lead all the way on Twilight Payment in 2020. British import in the right demographic as a 6yo gelding (5.5 biologically). Handles the wet. Saddlecloth 24 is way down there but has had four winners, the latest in 2000. And barrier 10 is solid, with five winners including 2014. Is also a grey if you like backing them, especially in the wet.

AGAINST: Did have a cushy run in the Caulfield Cup, saving ground on an inside path and under no weight. Ran in this race last year and came 13th at $91. He has no weight again here with 51kg, but had only 50.5kg last year. So, as is so often the case, the big doubt is will he get the distance?

TIPS: 1. Presage Nocturne, 2. Meydaan; 3. Flatten The Curve; 4. Valiant King.

Best roughie: Furthur