Ever wondered if Intel stock is actually as good a deal as some investors think, or if there’s more to the story than meets the eye?
Over the past year, Intel shares have surged 45.5%, with an impressive 88.6% gain year to date. However, its price has dipped 4.7% in just the last week.
Intel has recently been in the headlines for its continued push into advanced semiconductor manufacturing and a ramp-up in AI chip development. This has fueled excitement about long-term prospects. Market expectations have shifted as competition heats up in the chip industry, and investors weigh how these strategic moves could reshape Intel’s future.
Right now, Intel scores a 3 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks. This means it is seen as undervalued in half of the key areas analysts track. We’ll break down what’s behind that number and explore the usual ways of valuing a tech giant like Intel. Stick around to the end for a surprising perspective that might give you a better edge.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s value by forecasting its future cash flows and discounting them to today’s terms. This approach captures what Intel might earn over time, taking into account changes in business fundamentals and industry trends.
Looking at Intel’s most recent figures, the company reported a last twelve months Free Cash Flow (FCF) of negative $13.65 Billion, meaning it currently spends more cash than it generates. Analyst projections remain cautious for the next few years, but forecasts suggest a return to positive territory as soon as 2027, reaching $642 Million by then and climbing to $4.32 Billion by 2029. Longer-term estimates, extending to 2035 and extrapolated based on industry growth patterns, imply Intel’s annual FCF could exceed $10 Billion in the next decade. All projections are in US dollars.
The DCF model estimates Intel’s intrinsic value at $14.74 per share compared to its current trading price. This calculation implies the stock is 158.6% overvalued, suggesting the future cash flows do not currently justify the market price.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Intel may be overvalued by 158.6%. Discover 874 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
INTC Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
When it comes to valuing large tech companies, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often the preferred multiple. This is because certain firms, like Intel, are currently in a reinvestment phase and may not be showing strong earnings, so using their sales provides a clearer picture of company value. The P/S ratio allows investors to compare how much the market is willing to pay for each dollar of revenue, which is especially relevant for companies with thin or fluctuating profit margins.
Growth potential, profit margins, and risk all influence what might be considered a fair or “normal” P/S ratio for any business. Generally, higher expected growth and stronger margins justify paying more per dollar of sales, while higher risks or industry headwinds push that figure lower.
Right now, Intel trades at a P/S ratio of 3.40x, which sits below the semiconductor industry average of 4.51x and its peer group average of 15.01x. However, looking at these broad benchmarks can be misleading, since they do not fully account for Intel’s unique characteristics.
This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio comes in. This benchmark, set at 5.68x for Intel, adjusts for factors such as the company’s projected sales growth, industry context, profit margin trends, market cap, and risk profile. Rather than merely comparing numbers to an industry average, the Fair Ratio provides a more customized and comprehensive valuation check.
Comparing Intel’s actual P/S of 3.40x to its Fair Ratio of 5.68x shows that the stock appears undervalued on this measure, as the market is paying less per dollar of sales than what would be considered fair given Intel’s fundamentals and risk profile.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NasdaqGS:INTC PS Ratio as at Nov 2025
PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1404 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there’s an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personalized story or perspective about a company like Intel, where you combine your outlook on its future with your assumptions for things like fair value, revenue growth, and profit margins.
Unlike traditional valuation models that focus only on numbers, Narratives link the company’s story, including recent news, industry shifts, and your own expectations, directly to a concrete forecast and fair value. It makes investing more intuitive by rooting your decisions in both financials and your unique viewpoint.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors are already using Narratives as a simple tool to clarify when they think a stock is a buy, sell, or hold. Narratives will automatically update when new information arrives, so your view remains current even as Intel’s risks or opportunities change.
For example, one investor may see Intel’s fair value as high as $37.27 per share, betting on strong AI and manufacturing advances, while another might take a more cautious stance at just $16.15 due to concerns about execution and market headwinds.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Intel? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:INTC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include INTC.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com