And now, 20 Final Thoughts from Week 12, when I started to realize this year’s College Football Playoff field is not going to resolve itself cleanly. (Not that it ever will.)
1. If, like me, you spend 14 hours every Saturday watching college football, you’ll hear about 237 references to something called the Allstate Playoff Predictor. ABC/ESPN’s announcers treat it with the same reverence they would the Nielsen ratings — or Disney’s stock price.
But I prefer to cite the Mandel Best Guess. After a wild day in the SEC that saw No. 11 Oklahoma take down No. 4 Alabama, No. 3 Texas A&M pull off a 27-point comeback against South Carolina and No. 7 Ole Miss survive an upset bid by Florida, my Best Guess is the SEC is going to send five teams to the Playoff.
And I’m not ruling out the possibility of six. (Ducks for cover.)
2. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables came into the season coaching for his job after going 6-7 twice in his first three years. His Sooners now enter the last two games with a clear path to the Playoff.
Venables, the defensive coordinator for Clemson’s 2016 and 2018 national title teams, has produced a swarming top-10 unit that forced three turnovers, most notably Eli Bowen’s 87-yard pick six, and sacked Tide QB Ty Simpson four times in a 23-21 upset in Tuscaloosa. While quarterback John Mateer has not proven to be a superstar, he doesn’t have to be with that defense.
The Sooners, who close with Missouri and LSU at home, will likely move up to at least No. 8 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings. Win both, and Venables’ fourth team is CFP-bound, as either the SEC’s fourth or fifth representative.
3. It was a humbling day for Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide, who saw their eight-game winning streak come to an end despite outgaining their opponent 406-212. Don’t look now, but over his past three games, Simpson, who was No. 3 in our Heisman Straw Poll last week, has had his three lowest passer ratings since the Week 1 debacle at Florida State. Not that it is all on him. Alabama averaged just 2.4 yards per attempt on the ground.
But I expect the 8-2 Tide will remain in the CFP field for now, with three Top 25 wins, including a victory against No. 5 Georgia. And this being its first SEC loss, Bama can still reach the SEC title game if it takes care of 4-6 Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
4. There was a time when it seemed like Georgia was hanging on for dear life. Now, the 9-1 Bulldogs look like the best team in the SEC.
Kirby Smart’s team took a hammer to No. 10 Texas, 35-10, its third win against the Horns in the past 13 months. While Georgia’s Gunner Stockton threw for four touchdowns, giving him 13 over his past four games, his counterpart at Texas, Arch Manning, found himself on the wrong end of a relentless pass rush that held him to 5.8 yards per pass attempt.
Georgia is already in the clubhouse at 7-1 in the SEC, likely to make the field win or lose in its finale against 9-1 Georgia Tech.
But of course, Georgia is still tied for second in the standings because …
5. It was a good day to be Mike Elko. The second-year Texas A&M coach received a new contract Saturday, reportedly worth more than $11 million per year, which would put him in the top five nationally. And his team pulled off a historic comeback.
Down 30-3 at home to 3-6 South Carolina at the half, the third-ranked Aggies looked like they might go from undefeated to eliminated from the SEC Championship Game by day’s end. But then Aggies QB Marcel Reed, who’d thrown two picks in the first half, went into Beast Mode, leading his team on four straight touchdown drives after halftime in less than 20 minutes of game time. The Aggies, now 10-0, held on to win 31-30, becoming the first SEC team since at least 2004 to overcome a 27-point deficit.
I’m not panicking about A&M, which has all but wrapped up its CFP berth, win or lose at Texas in two weeks. But I can’t help noticing that it has managed to play seven SEC games without facing any of the seven other SEC teams ranked in last week’s Top 25. That will become relevant in a minute.
Marcel Reed threw for 439 yards and three touchdowns to help the Aggies rally against South Carolina. (Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
6. No. 7 Ole Miss at least has one ranked SEC win, at Oklahoma, which looked like it might come in handy when the Rebels trailed 3-6 Florida at home, 24-20, late into the third quarter. But then running back Kewan Lacy broke a 59-yard run, en route to a 224-yard day, to set up a go-ahead TD, and Ole Miss suffocated Gators quarterback DJ Lagway in the fourth quarter to win 34-24.
The Rebels are 10-1, with only the Egg Bowl remaining, and will likely move up to at least No. 6 this week. Which would seemingly make them a near-lock for the CFP, along with Texas A&M and Georgia. Given that, and given Oklahoma and, likely, Alabama, are both win-and-in, you see how we get to five SEC teams.
Now, what was that thing I said about six?
7. It has been a wild roller coaster of a season for preseason No. 1 Texas, starting with its highly watched Week 1 stinker at Ohio State. The Horns fell out of the rankings entirely after losing at 1-3 Florida on Oct. 4, then came roaring back into the top 10 following wins against then sixth-ranked Oklahoma and then-ninth-ranked Vanderbilt. Now, following a lopsided loss in Athens, they will likely tumble back down into the mid-to-low teens.
But Texas is not dead yet. Really. The Horns close with two home games. If they beat 2-8 Arkansas next week, then topple an 11-0 Texas A&M team (playing arguably its toughest game of the season) on Black Friday, 9-3 Texas would jump right back up into contention (and possibly box out a 10-2 Vanderbilt in the process).
Is your blood sufficiently boiling yet? If so, let’s start talking about some teams that could keep them out of it.
8. While Jeremiyah Love added another ridiculous highlight-reel touchdown (56 yards, complete with a PlayStation spin move), the story of Notre Dame’s 37-15 rout of No. 22 Pitt was its defense. Panthers freshman QB Mason Heintschel had thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his five starts; he was just 16 of 33 for 126 yards against the Irish. Pitt also finished 0 of 13 on third downs. Good thing for Pat Narduzzi that the game didn’t count.
The ninth-ranked Irish — who close with a pair of 3-7 foes in Syracuse and Stanford — have been the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team to this point. But Oklahoma will almost certainly pass them this week. The big question: Will Alabama stay above or fall behind the Irish?
I still cannot see Marcus Freeman’s team missing the field if it goes into selection Sunday on a 10-game winning streak, but the field is admittedly getting crowded.
9. And No. 17 USC is lurking in the shadows. The 8-2 Trojans, playing in a downpour at the Coliseum, trailed No. 21 Iowa 21-7 late in the first half before storming back to win 26-21. Lincoln Riley has the most impressive receiver tandem this side of Ohio State in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, who combined for 17 catches for 218 yards. Longtime Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz said Lemon “is as good as I’ve seen. I mean, going back 20-plus years.”
Riley has done a nice job of turning the ship around after two ho-hum seasons, but it would go next-level if the Trojans beat No. 8 Oregon in Eugene next weekend. So far, he is 0-4 against top-10 foes at USC.
10. Michigan does not look like a Playoff-caliber team, but the 18th-ranked Wolverines are hanging in after escaping 5-5 Northwestern at Wrigley Field. Michigan, now 8-2, overcame five turnovers, including two Bryce Underwood fourth-quarter interceptions, to win 24-22 on a walk-off Dominic Zvada field goal. Underwood, the highly touted freshman, has regressed over the past three games. He last threw a touchdown on Oct. 18 against Washington. But his team has won four straight games regardless.
It’s pretty simple: A 9-2 Michigan team that beats an 11-0 Ohio State team would soar into the top 10. Sherrone Moore’s team does not look capable of beating the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season, but we said the same thing last year.
11. Meanwhile, there are two Big 12 teams sitting just on the other side of the CFP cut line, both of whom put on clinics Saturday.
No. 12 BYU bounced back from its first loss last week at Texas Tech by blasting a 6-3 TCU team 44-13. It was quite the symmetry from 2023, when the Cougars lost 44-11 to the Horned Frogs during the program’s first season in the Big 12. Kalani Sitake’s guys went 2-7 in Big 12 play that season; they’re 14-3 since.
Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark’s dream scenario would be for both 10-1 Texas Tech and 9-1 BYU to win out, then for the Cougars to win a championship game rematch. That is the conference’s only realistic hope for two CFP teams, although …
12. No. 13 Utah has been unleashing a reign of terror over the past few weeks. The Utes’ 55-28 rout of a .500 Baylor team included three touchdown runs of at least 64 yards, two of them by freshman quarterback Byrd Ficklin, and a 65-yard Elijah Davis pick six. The ruthlessly efficient Utes are 8-2, with all eight wins coming by at least 25 points.
The problem is, none of those wins were against Top 25 teams, and Utah’s two losses are to the two teams above it, Texas Tech and BYU, likely blocking the Utes from reaching the conference title game. They’re going to need a lot of help.
13. No. 16 Georgia Tech is the only ACC team that controls its fate in the conference championship race — and the Yellow Jackets nearly blew it Saturday. They found themselves in a frenetic shootout at 1-9 Boston College, featuring a combined 1,165 yards, but ultimately prevailed 36-34 on a last-second field goal. This comes on the heels of their first loss, a 48-36 affair at NC State, which also exposed Tech’s defense.
The good news for Haynes King and the Jackets is they’re 6-1 in league play, one win from clinching a trip to Charlotte, and they’ll be back home for the first time since Oct. 25 in a clash with Pitt, itself 5-1 in league play.
14. No. 19 Virginia quashed everyone’s morbid fantasy about a four-loss ACC champ by putting Duke out of its misery, 34-17. Quarterback Chandler Morris returned from an injury that knocked him out of last week’s loss to Wake Forest, and the Cavaliers’ defense allowed just 255 yards to a top-20 Blue Devils offense.
All that’s left for 9-2 Virginia is a rivalry date with 3-7 Virginia Tech in two weeks. But even then, the Cavs might need a little help, because they could lose a multi-team tiebreaker involving the league’s fourth one-conference-loss team, SMU. Please don’t ask me to explain how.
Chandler Morris came back from injury to shut down Duke’s hope of winning the ACC. (Lance King / Getty Images)
15. Louisville coach Jeff Brohm will be kicking himself over the Cardinals’ missed opportunities this season. His team looked like it could win the ACC after knocking off then-second-ranked Miami on Oct. 17. But Louisville, now 7-3, played its way out of contention with back-to-back home losses.
First, it fell to Cal in overtime. Then, on Friday, the Cardinals suffered a 20-19 defeat to sub-.500 Clemson. The Cardinals committed three unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and missed an extra point and two field goals, including a dagger with 1:30 left.
When backup kicker Nick Keller’s 46-yard attempt sailed wide left, Clemson co-defensive coordinator Nick Eason lifted Dabo Swinney and hugged him like they’d just won the national championship. Not quite. But the preseason top-five Tigers, now 5-5, should at least go bowling, what with Furman up next.
16. Every time I think I know who is going to emerge as the Group of 5 Playoff rep, that team goes and suffers a crippling defeat. This week’s victim: No. 24 USF. Navy handed the Bulls their second conference loss, 41-38, after a wild fourth quarter in which the teams combined for five touchdowns. Star quarterback Blake Horvath returned for the Midshipmen after missing last week’s Notre Dame game and completed several long passes, but Navy also got touchdown runs of 76 (Alex Tecza) and 64 yards (Braxton Woodson).
Navy, 8-2, is now one of four teams in the American with one conference loss, joining 9-1 North Texas, 8-2 Tulane and 7-3 East Carolina. The surprising Pirates pulled off a dramatic 31-27 win against Memphis, which itself was the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team in its first rankings. Now, both the Tigers and USF (7-3) are probably done.
17. It looks like we’re going to have a new champion in the Mountain West this season. San Diego State took sole possession of first place by shutting down visiting Boise State in a rain-drenched 17-7 win. The Broncos’ offense has been a mess since losing veteran quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury in a 30-7 loss to Fresno State two weeks ago. But credit to the Aztecs for winning a game in which their own quarterback, Jayden Denegal, passed for just 17 yards. In an ode to the great Rocky Long, SDSU ran 46 times for 277 yards.
I continue to assume the American champ will claim the fifth CFP auto-berth, but they do keep knocking each other off. Perhaps San Diego State, 8-2, will be next in line.
18. On Friday, North Carolina coach Bill Belichick took to Instagram to assure everyone his “commitment to the UNC Football program has not waivered (sic)” despite the New York Giants’ job coming open. He ended his note with his trademark line, “We’re on to Wake Forest.” But apparently the Demon Deacons were on to him, handling the Tar Heels 28-12. Wake, picked to finish 16th out of 17 teams in the ACC preseason poll, is now 7-3, best of its conference’s four Tobacco Road schools. Meanwhile, UNC’s bowl hopes are slipping away after falling to 4-6. It will need to knock off rivals Duke and NC State to get to 6-6.
19. Brent Brennan’s Arizona debut last year went so badly that his AD, Desireé Reed-Francois, had to publicly confirm he’d be back for a second season. The Wildcats, 4-8 in 2024, have exceeded all expectations in 2025. They’re 7-3 after going to No. 25 Cincinnati and winning 30-24.
It has been a cool redemption story for quarterback Noah Fifita, who led a 10-win season under Jedd Fisch two years ago but badly regressed last year, even with star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan by his side. He has bounced back considerably, and on Saturday he became Arizona’s all-time leader in passing touchdowns with 68.
20. Finally, I’m long overdue for a #MACtion item. Western Michigan, which last won the conference in 2016 — aka the year P.J. Fleck went 13-1 — has risen to the top of the standings after its 17-13 win against defending MAC champ Ohio on Tuesday. At 5-1 in league play, the Broncos sit a game above five 4-2 teams.
But another notable result occurred on Wednesday. NIU, a 2-7 team at the time, went to Amherst, Mass., and hammered the conference’s newest member, UMass, 45-3, dropping the nation’s only winless team to 0-10. The Minutemen have never gone better than 4-8 since moving up to the FBS in 2012, but they’ve at least managed to avoid going 0-12.
We’re all rooting for you, UMass.