A tugboat guides a crude oil tanker to the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, B.C. The province says it would be a mistake to build a new pipeline from Alberta to the northwest coast of British Columbia.Jennifer Gauthier/The Globe and Mail
The British Columbia government is backing a proposal to move more Alberta crude oil to the West Coast. The plan aims to increase the capacity of the Trans Mountain pipeline system by more than half a million barrels a day, with results as early as 2026.
It is a sharp reversal from a government that once fiercely opposed the initial Trans Mountain expansion, arguing when it was proposed that increased shipping traffic would put B.C.’s marine environment at risk.
The turnaround is part of B.C.’s effort to counter pressure from Alberta for an entirely new pipeline. While Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ottawa appear close to a deal that would pave the way for an oil pipeline from Alberta to the northwest coast of British Columbia, B.C. Energy Minister Adrian Dix says the plan would be economic folly.
Ottawa, Alberta close to deal that includes oil pipeline to B.C. coast, sources say
Instead, Mr. Dix is now championing the Trans Mountain optimization plan, and has urged his Crown-owned utility, BC Hydro, to engage in talks with the pipeline company to support the project. The province has also given a green light to the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority to dredge the Second Narrows waterway to allow tankers to load more oil at the Trans Mountain marine terminal in Burnaby.
“I actually thought this proposal [to optimize Trans Mountain] would be more meaningful to Alberta and to the federal government, because it’s demonstrably better in every possible way,” Mr. Dix said in an interview Friday.
Liberal MPs say any Alberta-Ottawa pipeline deal must have backing in B.C.
Canadians paid $34-billion to expand the existing Trans Mountain pipeline, and now can make it far more efficient for around $4-billion. The cost of a new northern pipeline has not been determined – it has neither a proponent nor a route – but it would be more complex than the Trans Mountain expansion, which followed the route of the existing pipeline.
“We just finished a pipeline. It’s paid for by the Canadian taxpayer, and we’re trying to make it better for them,” Mr. Dix said.
Alberta’s Energy Minister, Brian Jean, said in an e-mailed statement that the province is “extremely supportive” of Trans Mountain’s efforts to maximize capacity, because the United Conservative government wants to see oil production double in the province by 2035.
Since the taps for Trans Mountain were turned on in May, 2024, the space crunch has eased on all of Canada’s largest export pipelines. The difference between the price paid for Western Canadian crude versus product from the United States has also fallen sharply, and Canadian crude oil exports to countries other than the U.S. have more than tripled, with most of it headed to Asia.
“Optimizing TMX, including dredging the port of Vancouver to allow tankers to operate at full capacity, is critical to maximizing the benefits that Alberta and Canada receive from accessing Asian and West Coast U.S. markets,” Mr. Jean said.
“The best time to build a pipeline was 10 years ago, the next best time is today,” he said.
Trans Mountain has a three-part wish list of projects to improve flow on the line. Together, they would increase the system’s capacity by roughly 510,000 barrels a day (b/d).
Chief executive Mark Maki told The Globe and Mail earlier this year that Canada needs to “do the easy things first” – like boosting capacity – before it pursues an entirely new pipeline. (Mr. Maki was not made available for an interview ahead of the company’s quarterly earnings next week.)
“We need to optimize the system that we have. That has to be a priority for us so we can get more capacity as early as 2026, and then more a little bit later in the decade,” he said in May.
The largest optimization project would bump capacity on Trans Mountain’s main system by roughly 360,000 b/d, by adding 30 kilometres of new, 36-inch diameter pipe adjacent to existing lines and small improvements to infrastructure along the route.
The project would also see 11 new pump stations added along the route and increased power to the line to make existing pump stations more effective.
Earlier this year, Mr. Maki estimated that the mainline optimization project would cost between $3-billion and $4-billion, and take a few years to complete.
The second capacity-boosting project would introduce drag-reducing agents into the pipeline system to reduce friction between the oil and the line itself. It wouldn’t require much construction, making it a relatively cheap exercise with the potential to increase capacity by up to 10 per cent, or 90,000 b/d.
Mr. Maki said in May he expected to have the drag-reducing agents in service by the end of 2026. However, that project will only proceed if shippers confirm they want to secure additional volumes on the pipeline.
The third project is still in its conceptual phase. It would increase the volume of oil going through the 111-kilometre Puget Sound pipeline between Abbotsford, B.C., and Skagit County, Wash., by up to 60,000 b/d by upgrading terminal infrastructure.
Trans Mountain has not yet submitted any formal applications to regulators for the proposed projects.
A crude oil tanker is seen in Burrard inlet, heading to the Westridge Marine Terminal. The province has also proposed dredging the deep-sea navigation channel to allow for more tankers at the terminal.Jennifer Gauthier/The Globe and Mail
Alongside work on the pipeline system are dredging plans to help relieve a pinch point in Vancouver’s harbour.
Currently, Aframax tankers loading at Trans Mountain’s Westridge marine terminal in Burnaby can only fill to 70-per-cent capacity, limited by the confines of the Second Narrows waterway. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority is leading a proposal that would dredge the deep-sea navigation channel.
There is no budget yet for the project but the plan would remove up to six metres of material below the seafloor – an estimated 30,000 cubic metres – which would allow the tankers more draught, and therefore the ability to load more oil at Westridge. The B.C. government has given tentative approval for the plan.
Looming large over Trans Mountain’s plans is the question of whether Western Canada’s oil and gas sector will even need more pipeline space in the coming years.
Those on the clean-energy front argue that reliance on fossil fuels will soon dry up, negating the need for a new pipeline. But analysts and oil companies counter that new or expanded pipelines are crucial to ensure Canadian crude can access the global market to get full price for its products.
Western Canadian producers could start to face transportation problems as soon as 2027 if pipeline capacity remains where it is today, according to a recent report by analysts at TD Cowen.
On the flipside, if pipeline capacity grows by between 820,000 b/d and one million b/d – by adding a new pipeline, for instance – the analysts wrote that they “envision a long, sustained oil price tailwind for all western Canadian producers, well into the next decade.”
The most likely scenario, however, is roughly 270,000 b/d of additional capacity coming online through 2030. In that case, pipelines don’t become constrained until the third quarter of 2028.
Enbridge announced last week it would spend US$1.4-billion to increase capacity on two pipeline networks that connect the Alberta oil sands to U.S. refiners.
Colin Gruending, president of liquids pipelines at Enbridge, told reporters that Western Canadian crude production is likely to grow by around 500,000 to 600,000 b/d through the end of the decade.
Capacity additions on Enbridge lines and the Trans Mountain optimization projects should take care of that, he said, but “beyond that, it gets probably a little fuzzy.”
Regardless, Mr. Gruending said the oil and gas sector should ideally always have extra wiggle room in pipelines to get product to market.