When John Howard in 2018 described Victoria as the “Massachusetts of Australia”, he was describing the state’s progressive “small-l liberal” political leaning, particularly in contrast to the more conservative views held in other parts of the country, like Queensland.
So yesterday, when the Liberal Party turned to millennial first-termer Jess Wilson to become its new leader, it appeared it had finally read the room on the political sensibilities in its own backyard.
The man Wilson rolled, Brad Battin, was a Peter Dutton-type figure — almost singularly focused on crime as a former cop, while failing to understand the broader culture of the state. He is a self-described “bogan”, a man of the suburbs. His schtick never resonated and, as a result, the Liberals have struggled to gain traction in a political environment they should be thriving in.
Even for true believers and party loyalists, the Victorian Liberal Party has been floundering — incapable of managing its internal personality and ideological disputes — and has routinely thrown away all the opportunities it has been handed to overthrow a depleted old Labor government.
The gamble the party has made by electing Wilson is linked to its survival. Wilson is aligned with more moderate members of the party, and has described herself as a “classical, small-l liberal”.
She was the only Victorian Liberal MP who publicly supported the Indigenous Voice to Parliament. The fact that she now has to promise to repeal the state’s legislated Treaty will create difficulties for her. Authenticity is her potential asset — singing to the song sheet of the right could blunt her strongest attribute.
“I’m pro-choice, I supported marriage equality,” Wilson has previously said.
She provides the party the chance to neutralise the culture war issues and focus on the economy — its only chance of success in a state that has consistently made clear it finds fringe debates self-indulgent.
The economy, stupid
A fascinating trend looks like it could be emerging. Wilson has now rolled Battin, representing — at least superficially — a different image for the party.
At the same time, in NSW, Liberal MP Kelly Sloane is being touted as the challenger to leader Mark Speakman. There is a prospect that two women from progressive leafy “teal” parts of Sydney and Melbourne will be leading the party in the country’s two biggest states — all as the federal Liberals look to be moving against Opposition Leader Sussan Ley.
Jess Wilson’s record on climate change shows just how distinctive her voice has been. (AAP: Joel Carrett)
A teal candidate in Wilson’s seat got 21 per cent of the primary vote at the last state election, and in NSW an independent running on climate won 17 per cent of the vote in Sloane’s electorate.
While Wilson does not yet seem to have the authority to dump the party’s more controversial and polarising policies, yesterday she made clear that, at least, her emphasis will be on the economy, stupid.
Political tragics will recall this was the catchphrase coined by Bill Clinton’s strategist James Carville, ahead of Clinton’s 1992 election win. In essence, it means for politicians to succeed at the ballot box, they need to win over voters’ primary interest — their hip pocket.
LoadingClimate credentials under the microscope
Wilson’s record on climate change shows just how distinctive her voice has been.
At the federal level, the party just dumped its net zero by 2050 promise. At the Kew climate change election forum, Wilson made the same promise to legislate 50 per cent emissions reductions by 2030, committed to net zero, and said gas would “cease to be part of the mix”.
Her climate credentials will be under the microscope now as she tries to walk the line on gas and energy reliability and also keep faith with her own record on emissions reduction.
On net zero, Wilson yesterday said the party remained focused on emissions reduction, but also that she was “unashamedly focused on delivering cheaper power for Victorians”.
But there is a wider phenomenon going on here. The Liberals in two big Australian states are realigning themselves — shifting to what Ley once described as the sensible centre.
Who is new Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson?
It is curious, then, that at the federal level the party is taking such a different approach — potentially tearing down its first female leader and shifting further to the right on climate change and energy policy.
In the two states with the most metropolitan seats — Sydney and Melbourne — the Liberals are waking up to the reality that the candidate has to match the political climate. The teal wave is not a one-off — it is here to stay unless the party can realign to more mainstream interests.
Yesterday, Ley welcomed Wilson’s rise, saying she represented a “fresh, next-generation approach” at a time when Victoria needed it most.
If that “fresh” approach could be matched at the federal level, the party might find itself looking more like an alternative than an outlier.
Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.