The U.S. Navy’s Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group sails towards the Caribbean Sea in the Atlantic Ocean on November 13.US Navy/Reuters
The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group steamed into the Caribbean earlier this month in a show of force, reasserting U.S. dominance in its own backyard.
The aircraft carrier’s arrival was an obvious escalation of the American military activity in the region over the past few months. Since early September, the Pentagon has reportedly carried out 21 strikes off the coast of South America and the eastern Pacific against small boats suspected of carrying drugs, killing at least 83 people.
U.S. President Donald Trump has mused about regime change in Venezuela, the revolutionary socialist country where economic collapse during the 2010s has prompted the migration of nearly eight million people. The U.S. government has accused Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro of being a drug trafficker and has doubled the bounty for his arrest to US$50-million.
When asked in a 60 Minutes interview if the carrier’s arrival meant going to war with Venezuela, Mr. Trump said: “I doubt it. I don’t think so. But they’ve been treating us very badly.”
But when he was asked if Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s days were numbered, he replied, “I would say yeah. I think so, yeah.“
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Whether or not Mr. Trump declares war on oil-rich Venezuela – an ally of Russia, China and Iran – the show of force in the Caribbean reflects shifting geopolitical priorities, as the President exerts control over a region long-dominated and heavily influenced by the U.S. but largely overlooked since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
Mr. Trump has signalled his intentions for the Western Hemisphere since his re-election. He has spoken of annexing Canada, buying Greenland, sending U.S. troops into Mexico to stamp out fentanyl labs and retaking control of the Panama Canal. The military buildup in the Caribbean, meanwhile, has revived memories of gunboat diplomacy – sending naval vessels to coerce and intimidate weaker countries – though analysts question the effectiveness of such a strategy in the modern day.
“It does seem outdated,” said Federico Estévez, a political-science professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. “But if we look at it in terms of cost, benefit – more rational terms – it may be a cheap way of achieving the kind of domination that you want over governments that haven’t been very nice.”
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The renewed focus on the Americas has also revived the Monroe Doctrine, in which Founding Father and President James Monroe (1817-1825) warned European powers to stay out of the region. President Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) enforced it by deploying military force to defend U.S. interests in Central America and the Caribbean.
“What the Trump administration is doing in the Western Hemisphere is exactly what they’ve said they’ve been doing, which is reasserting American dominance and pre-eminence,” said Joshua Treviño, senior fellow for the Western Hemisphere Initiative at the America First Policy Institute.
“You can pretty consistently see an orientation toward the Roosevelt Corollary, an assertion of American responsibility in the hemisphere that, if there are ungoverned spaces, the United States will step in understanding that those spaces are by their nature a threat both to the U.S. and to the hemisphere at large.”
Migration through Central America and Mexico toward the U.S. border has collapsed since Mr. Trump took office in January. Analysts say the interest in the hemisphere largely complements Mr. Trump’s domestic priorities.
“They really see the America First agenda as protecting the United States homeland from outside influences they disagree with, and clearly one of those is drugs and another is illegal migration, and both of those directly touch the Western Hemisphere in a very significant way,” said Eric Farnsworth, senior associate with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“There’s a third priority,” he added: “The global competition with China.”
China has increased its influence in the hemisphere over the past quarter-century, becoming the top trading partner for many Latin American countries – buying boatloads of commodities, ranging from soybeans to copper, and building infrastructure projects. Analysts say Mr. Trump’s predilection for tariffs could prove counterproductive for pulling countries out of China’s trade orbit.
“I think we have to put together a better offer,” Mr. Farnsworth said. “It’s important that people see the U.S. as the preferred partner, so that they’re not tempted by some of the things China might do.”
Mr. Trump has divided the region into allies and rivals. Four countries with U.S.-friendly governments – Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala – recently struck a trade deal with the United States. The U.S. extended Argentina a US$20-billion swap line ahead of midterm elections last month as the country’s sinking currency threatened the libertarian project of President Javier Milei, an unabashed ally of Mr. Trump.
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“What Trump’s support did was stop the currency destabilizing and the threat of instability. And that allowed Milei to campaign on his domestic achievements,” said Fernando Domínguez Sardou, a professor at UNIE Universidad in Madrid.
“It’s very clear that the administration is backing countries that are ideologically similar,” added Nicolás Saldias, senior analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “It’s a kind of scattershot approach policy, but there is a direction.”
Some leaders have antagonized Mr. Trump to rally their bases, such as left-wing presidents Gustavo Petro of Colombia and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, with the latter’s popularity spiking after publicly sparring with the U.S. leader.
The U.S. imposed 50-per-cent tariffs on Brazilian imports to derail the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro – a Trump ally – on charges of plotting a coup. Mr. Bolsonaro was convicted anyway. Mr. Trump subsequently lifted tariffs on Brazilian food products such as coffee, beef and fruit after finally meeting with his Brazilian counterpart.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has also developed an unlikely rapport with Mr. Trump, who threatened tariffs unless Mexico halted the flow of fentanyl and migrants to the U.S. Ms. Sheinbaum has quietly agreed to many of Mr. Trump’s demands, according to analysts, but her maxim of keeping a “cool head” has proved effective.
“The [U.S.] administration has clearly decided that the way forward with Mexico is a co-operative approach,” Mr. Treviño said.
Mr. Maduro, it seems, is facing a more unilateral approach by Mr. Trump. “Venezuela is kind of the epicentre of how all the Trump administration’s policy issues intersect … migration, drugs, great power competition in the region,” said Ryan Berg, the director of the Americas Program at CSIS.