When it comes to offensive line play, one-on-one individual losses happen. The defense gets paid, too. That said, a critical part of offensive line play is an old Scarnecchia-ism: seeing the game through the same set of eyes. By having all five blockers on the same page, the group can often play above its perceived talent level. Last week, the Patriots had some struggles with Cincinnati’s blitz package in that regard (Maye: 0-of-5 vs. cover zero). On the Pats final third down, the Bengals generated a free runner when LB Barrett Carter came through unblocked, giving Maye little chance to complete a pass. Just getting a hat-on-a-hat in those situations goes a long way.
As we turn the page to the Giants, keeping Maye protected and generating more disruption along the defensive line will be key to extending the Patriots nine-game winning streak on Monday night.
Despite their 2-10 record, we shouldn’t sleep on the Giants, who have an interim head coach (Mike Kafka) and defensive coordinator (Charlie Bullen). The Giants are in this transition phase because they’re failing to close out winnable games, with a league-high five losses after leading by double digits, tying an NFL record, including a 34-27 overtime loss to the Lions, in which they led 10-0, 17-7, and 27-17. The Giants have lost three consecutive one-score games to the Bears (24-20), Packers (27-20), and Lions (34-27 in OT). So, they’ve been competitive in recent weeks.
The Giants new-look coaching staff also makes them harder to prepare for, as each coach puts their own spin on things. For example, the Giants ran two separate trick plays for touchdowns against the Lions last week, while this is New York’s first game with new defensive play-caller Charlie Bullen, so the Patriots will have to be prepared for anything this week. It also sounds like first-round QB Jaxson Dart will return from a concussion following a two-game absence, so that’s another added wrinkle.
Let’s break down the chess match between the Giants and Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Monday Night Football.
Offense Key: Attack the Giants Run Defense, Adjust to Changes Under Interim DC Charlie Bullen
The main reason the Giants have a losing record is that their defense, which they invested heavily in, has underperformed this season.
The plan for the Giants wasn’t to rank 28th in DVOA and 30th in points allowed (27.8 PPG) while having the second-highest payroll in the NFL on defense. After adding third-overall pick Abdul Carter to a defensive front that already featured Kayvon Thibodeaux (No. 5 overall pick in 2022), Brian Burns, and three-time Pro Bowl DT Dexter Lawrence, the idea was to create a menacing front that would dominate the line of scrimmage.
Instead, the Giants have an average-to-below-average pass rush: 15th in pass-rush win rate (38%), 23rd in pressure rate (32.6%), and 23rd in sack rate (5.5%). New York also has the worst run defense in football, ranking last in rush EPA, rush success rate, and yards per rush (5.9). Along with all the blown leads, the Giants struggling defense led to parting ways with former head coach Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.
Although it hasn’t gone as planned this season, you have to take the Giants pass rush seriously. Burns, Carter, and Lawrence are talented rushers who can wreck games (Thibodeaux is out with a shoulder injury). Burns and Carter rank 13th and 14th, respectively, in pass-rush win rate among edge rushers, while Lawrence is a disruptive pocket-denter – on paper, it’s a legit trio. The Patriots reworked offensive line will have to gel quickly to pick up schemed rushes, while offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels might need to help out the backups on the left side of the line.
The Patriots will also have to prepare for some uncertainty in the defense under a new play-caller. Bullen’s coaching mentors include defensive coordinators Vance Joseph (Broncos) and Matt Burke (Texans), whose systems share roots with the man/match-heavy defense the Giants are currently deploying. New York ranks second in man coverage rate (41%), sixth in single-high safety rate (60.7%), and plays match-quarters as a changeup, which has man coverage principles down the field.
“I think the structure has got to be somewhat the same. It would be really hard to completely change from an under front to an over in base,” head coach Mike Vrabel said this week. “We’ll just always have to be prepared for things that they could do, and maybe that there’s more pressure on early downs, less pressure on third down, or whatever those things have been. But I wouldn’t have any idea how he would plan on calling it. We’ll have to just see and make sure that we’re prepared for anything that could come up throughout the game.”
When it comes to the Giants run defense struggles, it’s a weakness-on-weakness matchup between New York’s run defense and New England’s rush offense. Even with their five starters healthy, the Patriots offense is 30th in rush EPA (-0.18) this season. The Pats have majored in gap schemes such as duo and fullback lead plays, which have given the Giants trouble, but New England is only averaging 4.0 yards per rush when they use those man-blocking schemes (20th in the NFL).