Lando Norris could win the Formula 1 world title on Sunday in the main race of the Qatar Grand Prix, the penultimate round of the 2025 season.
Having finished third in the sprint, Norris will go into the race as the title favourite with 396 points to his name. Team-mate Oscar Piastri, who won the sprint, has collected 374 points so far, with reigning world champion Max Verstappen on 371 after taking fourth place on Saturday.
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This makes the equation rather simple: if Norris is outscored by either driver on Sunday, the title battle will go down to the wire in Abu Dhabi.
For Norris to win the title as early as tomorrow, he needs to maintain his advantage on Verstappen; if they go into the final round with a 25-point difference, Norris will be out of reach, having secured one more victory and three more second places in the event of a tie-breaker.
The Briton also needs to bring the gap to Piastri from 22 points to 26 points; they are level on race wins, so the Australian would be ahead in that metric if he were to triumph in Abu Dhabi and create a tied result.
In other words, if Piastri finishes in the top nine positions, Norris needs to be at least two positions ahead – or one place ahead if Piastri is second.
Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren
Photo by: Zak Mauger / LAT Images via Getty Images
In the unlikely event that none of those drivers scores points on Sunday, only Piastri will remain in contention alongside Norris.
Norris will win 2025 F1 title in Qatar if…
Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri
Max Verstappen
1st
2nd or lower
2nd or lower
2nd
4th or lower
3rd or lower
3rd
5th or lower
4th or lower
4th
6th or lower
5th or lower
5th
7th or lower
6th or lower
6th
8th or lower
7th or lower
7th
9th or lower
8th or lower
8th
11th or lower
9th or lower
If Norris is out of the top 8, how can Piastri and Verstappen remain in contention?
Piastri will be in contention for the title in Abu Dhabi no matter what
If Norris finishes 9th, Verstappen needs 8th or better
If Norris finishes 10th, Verstappen needs 9th or better
If Norris finishes 11th or lower, Verstappen needs 10th or better
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– The Autosport.com Team