Western Bulldogs v GWS, Hawthorn v Collingwood and Fremantle v Brisbane are three of the 12 games that will shape the 2025 finals. Pictures: AFL Photos

THE BUSINESS end of the 2025 season is upon us.

Nine teams are chasing finals spots, but double chances and home finals are also up for grabs.

LADDER PREDICTOR Who will make the eight, who will miss out?

So which games will decide who reaches September and where they finish?

We take a look at the 12 key games in the final four rounds and what they could mean.

ROUND 21

Western Bulldogs v GWS
Thurs July 31, 7.30pm, Marvel Stadium

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There’s no Toby Greene this time to add his customary spice to one of the AFL’s most genuine rivalries, but that won’t matter for the Dogs. Sitting outside the top eight with four rounds to play, they’ve just got to start winning to keep their finals fate in their own hands. The Bulldogs’ percentage means they’ll be in good shape if they can make up a couple of games on the Cats, Hawks, Giants, Dockers and Suns. The Giants have one of the softer runs home so it’s not a disaster if they drop this one, but they’ll be much more comfortable if they win.

Bailey Dale in action during the Western Bulldogs’ clash with GWS in round seven, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Adelaide v Hawthorn
Fri Aug 1, 7.10pm ACST, Adelaide Oval

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Hawthorn’s brutal run home begins with a trip to face a red-hot Adelaide outfit. The Crows sit second on the ladder and will be eyeing off the minor premiership if things fall their way. Simply, the Crows are the form side of the competition right now and are fresh off a 98-point demolition job on arch-rival Port Adelaide. With a 10-1 record at home this season, they will be hard to topple. The Hawks need to beat at least one of Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane (as well as Melbourne) in the remaining fixtures to push for finals.

Nick Watson tackles Alex Neal-Bullen during Hawthorn’s clash with Adelaide in round 14, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Collingwood v Brisbane
Sat Aug 2, 7.35pm AEST, MCG

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There may be three games to come for both clubs after this week, but Saturday night’s clash is massive for both of their premiership chances. A Collingwood win almost guarantees a top-two finish and a September spent at the MCG, a loss will have interstate trips in the frame. For Brisbane a victory could see them in second spot at the end of the round, lose and they may sit as low as seventh. From there a top-four spot is out of their control, and maybe with it the chance of back-to-back flags.

Nick Daicos during Collingwood’s game against Brisbane in R6, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

ROUND 22

Hawthorn v Collingwood
Thurs Aug 7, 7.30pm, MCG

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The Magpies have been the tearaway leader all season but could find themselves in a scrap just to make the top four – as unlikely as that seems – depending on results. The past eight games between the Hawks and Pies have been split 4-4, though Craig McRae’s men had a big win the last time they met in round 12. This game is arguably way more important for Hawthorn than it is for Collingwood, with a loss putting a major dent in its September aspirations.

James Sicily is tackled by Beau McCreery during the match between Collingwood and Hawthorn at the MCG in round 12, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Brisbane v Sydney
Sat Aug 9, 4.15pm AEST, Gabba

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Sydney looms as Brisbane’s easiest game on paper through the last four rounds, but the Swans will be keen to do whatever damage they can to the Lions’ campaign in an effort to purge the demons of last year’s Grand Final thrashing. There was only four points in it as Brisbane came from behind in round one and Sydney has only improved since then, winning five of its last seven outings. With Fremantle and Hawthorn rounding out the Lions’ run home, this is a crucial game they simply can’t afford to lose if a top-four spot is to be grabbed.

Dayne Zorko celebrates a goal during Brisbane’s clash with Sydney in round one, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

ROUND 23

Fremantle v Brisbane
Fri Aug 15, 6.20pm AWST, Optus Stadium

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There’s a bit of water to go under the bridge before round 23, but this could well be the make-or-break moment for both the Dockers’ and Lions’ double-chance, and flag, aspirations. Any opportunity to rest veterans or tweak gameplans will be thrown out the window, and we can expect the strongest available lineups playing their tried and trusted brand of football to give themselves every chance of winning. Drop this one and they may be dropping the premiership cup.

Luke Jackson and Oscar McInerney compete in the ruck during Fremantle’s clash against Brisbane in round one, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

Gold Coast v GWS
Sat Aug 16, 12.35pm AEST, People First Stadium

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It would take a monumental disaster for either of these sides to miss finals completely from here, but this huge clash will go a long way to determining their eventual finishing position in the eight. Anything from a double chance to travelling to enemy territory for a do-or-die final is on the cards for both sides. The Giants are in the glut of teams on 13 wins, while the Suns sit four points adrift but have a game in hand and a pretty cushy draw to boot, with GWS the only top-nine side they play on the run home. The Giants edged Gold Coast at Engie Stadium in round 15, but the Suns are a different beast on their home turf where they have gone 5-1 this year.

Adelaide v Collingwood
Sat Aug 16, 7.05pm ACST, Adelaide Oval

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This match could very well decide this season’s minor premier. The Pies and Crows currently occupy first and second on the ladder with just one win separating the sides. However, Adelaide boasts the superior percentage so a win could see it jump ahead of the Pies and earn a shot at a home run through the finals series. Collingwood got the chocolates when the two sides met in round 10, but only just. In fact, the last three encounters between these sides have been decided by 10 points or less, so expect this one to go down to the wire.

Ned Long and James Peatling in action during Collingwood’s clash with Adelaide in round 10, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Sydney v Geelong
Sun Aug 17, 3.15pm AEST, SCG

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Sydney may be out of the top eight race, but that doesn’t mean it can’t cause some havoc on the run home. The Cats are one of four teams sitting on 13 wins, with just percentage currently separating fourth spot (Geelong) and seventh-placed Fremantle, while Gold Coast is only four points behind those teams with a game in hand. The Cats have what looms as a relatively soft run home – Port Adelaide, Essendon, the Swans and Richmond – and would be expected to retain their double chance, but a slip-up against the Swans in the penultimate round could put the Cats right back in the pack.

Tom Papley tackles Oisin Mullin during Sydney’s clash against Geelong in round 13, 2024. Picture: Getty Images

ROUND 24

Brisbane v Hawthorn
Date and time TBC, Gabba

With a whole range of possibilities still on the table, this match could determine whether either side qualifies for a top-four spot. Another – albeit unlikely – scenario is that the clash goes some way to deciding which team reaches September. The Lions and Hawks have not played each other at the Gabba since 2019, but Sam Mitchell’s side has had the edge in recent times, winning five of the past six matches.

Lachie Neale in action during Brisbane’s clash against Hawthorn in round 11, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Date and time TBC, Marvel Stadium

This could be a massive game for both teams – the Dogs might need to win to seal a finals spot, while the Dockers could have a top-four berth for the taking. Freo has a 50-50 record at Marvel in the past two years, but has copped 10-goal hidings in its last two outings there, including a 67-point thrashing from the Dogs in round 15 last year. The Dockers have won three of their past four road trips this year, including victories over GWS and Collingwood, so don’t expect the travel to faze them.

Luke Jackson in action during Fremantle’s clash against the Western Bulldogs in round four, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Gold Coast v Essendon
Date and time TBC, People First Stadium

The Bombers are out of the finals race but this clash could still define several spots in the top eight. The Suns are a good chance to make their first-ever finals series and the result – and perhaps more importantly, the margin – could be the last piece in the September puzzle if, as expected, this rescheduled Opening Round game is the last match of the home and away season. Will it be a ‘win and you’re in’ game for Damien Hardwick’s men? And if so, who might be the unlucky side to tumble out?

Matt Rowell during the round 17 match between Essendon and Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, July 5, 2025. Picture: Getty Images