Wondering if Astellas Pharma is still worth buying after its big run, or if the easy money has already been made? In this article, we walk through what the market is pricing in and where the gaps might be.
The stock is up 44.1% over the last year and 36.5% year to date, even after a recent 1.2% dip in the past week and a 6.1% gain over the last month.
Behind those moves, investors have been reacting to Astellas Pharma’s evolving drug pipeline and strategic portfolio shifts. These developments signal how the business could look several years from now. Ongoing updates around late stage clinical programs and regulatory milestones have also nudged sentiment, shaping expectations for future cash flows and risk.
Right now, Astellas Pharma scores just 2/6 on our undervaluation checks, which means some metrics hint at value while others look more fully priced. Next, we will unpack the different valuation lenses investors use, and then finish with a more holistic way to think about what this stock is really worth.
Astellas Pharma scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back into today’s yen.
For Astellas Pharma, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about ¥314.4 billion. Analysts provide detailed forecasts for the next few years, which are then extended by Simply Wall St to build a 10 year view. Under this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, free cash flow is projected to rise to around ¥315.9 billion to ¥336.5 billion by 2035, with growth moderating over time as the business matures.
When all those future cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about ¥4,142 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at roughly a 49.7% discount. This suggests the market is not fully pricing in the projected cash generation.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Astellas Pharma is undervalued by 49.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 898 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
4503 Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
For profitable companies like Astellas Pharma, the price to earnings ratio is often the go to valuation yardstick, because it directly links what investors are paying to the profits the business is generating today. A higher PE can be justified when markets expect stronger growth or see the earnings stream as relatively low risk, while slower growth or higher uncertainty typically calls for a lower, more conservative PE multiple.
Story Continues
Astellas currently trades on a PE of about 29.9x. That is well above the broader Pharmaceuticals industry average of around 16.4x, and also higher than the 20.5x average of its peer group, suggesting the market is already baking in superior prospects. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of roughly 22.7x for Astellas, which is the PE you might expect given its specific mix of earnings growth, margins, risk profile, size and industry.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than blunt peer or industry comparisons, because it adjusts for what actually drives a premium or discount for this particular business. With the current PE at 29.9x versus a Fair Ratio of 22.7x, the shares appear to trade at a premium to this measure of fundamentals.
Result: OVERVALUED
TSE:4503 PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you turn your view of Astellas Pharma into a story linked to a financial forecast and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value to today’s price to help inform your decision about whether to buy or sell. The platform dynamically updates your Narrative as new news or earnings arrive. For example, a bullish investor might plug in assumptions closer to the top end of analyst expectations and land near the higher fair value and price target range around ¥2,200 per share. A more cautious investor might lean on the lower earnings assumptions and end up closer to the ¥1,300 end of the target range. This shows how two different but clearly structured stories about Astellas’ pipeline, pricing power and competition can coexist and be tested against the same live market price.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Astellas Pharma? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
TSE:4503 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 4503.T.
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