A liquefied natural gas carrier ship is docked at LNG Canada’s export facility on the Pacific coast in Kitimat, B.C., in August. LNG Canada became the first Canadian export terminal for the fuel when it began shipping to Asia in 2025.Jesse Winter/Reuters
U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas are reaching record-high levels, while Ottawa seeks to expand Canada’s modest LNG output in the quest to rank among the top six countries globally within five years.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a U.S.-based research group, forecast that there will be roughly 140 million tonnes of LNG export capability from the U.S. by the end of 2026, or about 10 times greater than anticipated capacity from Canada.
Eight U.S. LNG export terminals have opened since 2016, and another four are slated to be operating by 2028, including the first exports from Golden Pass LNG in Texas within weeks.
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IEEFA analyst Clark Williams-Derry estimates that there were a record-high 109 million tonnes of LNG exported from the U.S. in 2025. He made the estimate after crunching the numbers from Kpler, a provider of real-time global data and analytics.
The U.S. has now been the largest exporter of LNG in the world for three consecutive years. American exports are headed for fresh highs in 2026, with the final tally dependent on the pace of startup at Golden Pass and expansion at the Corpus Christi LNG terminal in Texas, Mr. Williams-Derry said.
By contrast, LNG Canada became the first Canadian export terminal for the fuel when it began shipping to Asia from Kitimat, B.C., in mid-2025.
As the U.S. trade war persists, Ottawa has been striving to smooth the way for economic diversification and reducing dependence on American customers.
A close-up view of the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat in April.Aaron Whitfield/The Globe and Mail
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced in September that LNG Canada’s Phase 2 expansion plan made the list of major projects of national interest to be considered for fast-tracking.
In November, he said Ksi Lisims LNG in Northwest British Columbia has been added by Ottawa to the growing roster of plans submitted to the Major Projects Office, which has the goal of expediting a wide range of developments in sectors such as energy, mining and infrastructure across Canada.
Canada is the fifth-largest natural gas producer in the world but recently ranked near the bottom of 22 countries exporting LNG.
The U.S., Australia and Qatar have been by far the world’s largest LNG exporters. Russia ranks fourth, followed by Malaysia.
It is unclear exactly how high Canada might move up the global rankings because several countries already have projects under construction and will expand their exports over the next five years, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
CAPP predicts that Canada could become a key LNG player, with exports of the fuel having the potential to place the country in the top six in the world by 2030.
In 2013, there were more than 20 LNG proposals in British Columbia.
Construction is underway at the Woodfibre LNG site, scheduled for completion by late 2027.Tijana Martin/The Globe and Mail
Today, only two smaller B.C. projects – Woodfibre LNG near Squamish and Cedar LNG in Kitimat – are under construction in Canada.
Construction on Woodfibre is scheduled for completion by late 2027 while Cedar is slated to be finished by late 2028.
In what the industry calls nameplate capacity, LNG Canada’s Phase 1 has the initial ability to export 14 million tonnes a year, though the Shell PLC-led project could increase it to 15 million tonnes annually through operating efficiencies at the Kitimat site located on the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation.
Woodfibre has a nameplate capacity of 2.1 million tonnes a year while Cedar has applied to British Columbia’s Environmental Assessment Office for permission to export up to 3.75 million tonnes a year.
If Ksi Lisims gets built, that would add another 12 million tonnes a year of exports.
LNG Canada’s Phase 1, Ksi Lisims, Cedar and Woodfibre could have a combined export capacity totalling nearly 33 million tonnes annually by 2030.
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If LNG Canada forges ahead with its Phase 2 plan to double the Kitimat terminal’s capacity by the early 2030s, Canada would solidify its position as a major exporter of natural gas in liquid form.
“We continue to work in close collaboration with all levels of government to find a pathway to a Phase 2 expansion while navigating a complex global trade and tariff environment,” LNG Canada said in a statement.
Industry analysts expect LNG Canada to make a final investment decision by the end of 2026 on whether to proceed with Phase 2.
The contentious Coastal GasLink pipeline, operated by TC Energy Corp., is supplying natural gas from Northeast B.C. to LNG Canada and also will be used for Cedar.
Haisla-led Cedar LNG seeks to boost future capacity by 25% in B.C.
Proponents of energy projects have had to deal with a range of issues such as volatile commodity prices, cost overruns, court battles and protests from citizens’ groups and climate activists.
“New Canadian LNG diverts resources away from real climate solutions such as renewable power generation and a clean transportation system,” said Steven Haig, a policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
In a recent report, IEEFA warned about a looming LNG glut on global markets.
“Market developments in 2025 indicate that policymakers and consumers in Asia are already responding to key LNG challenges in ways that could significantly slow future demand growth,” said the report co-authored by Christopher Doleman and Sam Reynolds.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Harvey estimates that LNG Canada exported more than 2.3 million tonnes of LNG to Asia between the startup in late June and mid-December.
B.C. Premier David Eby shakes hands with Nisga’a Nation President Eva Clayton during an announcement concerning the Ksi Lisims LNG project, in Vancouver on Sept. 16.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press
Ksi Lisims is expected to make a final investment decision in 2026. The Nisga’a Nation, Houston-based Western LNG and a group of natural gas producers called Rockies LNG are partners in the Ksi Lisims project near Gitlaxt’aamiks, B.C.
“We’ve learned a lot of stuff to better position ourselves as Indigenous nations to take our rightful place at the helm of this economic shift,” said Andrew Robinson, chief executive officer of the Nisga’a Lisims government.
BC Hydro is proposing the North Coast Transmission Line project, in collaboration with First Nations, that would run along the route of its current line between Prince George and Terrace in British Columbia. With the eventual addition of spur lines, the goal is to supply or increase electricity to customers such as the Port of Prince Rupert, mining companies and the proposed Ksi Lisims project.
A recent study by the Pembina Institute, titled Power Struggle, said limited supplies of hydroelectricity in B.C. should be earmarked for areas that provide the most economic benefit such as critical minerals, and not for fossil fuels such as LNG.
“Maybe going all-in on LNG isn’t the best way,” said Will Noel, a senior analyst at the Pembina Institute who co-authored the study with Ian Sanderson and Janetta McKenzie.
Woodfibre LNG is halfway through its long journey to build its B.C. export terminal
But Nisga’a leaders have touted Ksi Lisims and the associated Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) pipeline project as prime examples of economic reconciliation.
Construction of the 750-kilometre PRGT project, which is co-owned 50-50 by the Nisga’a and Western LNG, would be across Northern B.C.
The Gitxsan Nation has traditional territories that the natural gas pipeline would cross. A group of Gitxsan hereditary chiefs has expressed conditional support for PRGT.
“We’re thinking about future generations,” said Catherine Blackstock, whose Gitxsan hereditary chief name is Geel.
But Kolin Sutherland-Wilson, a spokesperson for the Gitxsan house group named Tsi’basaa, said there is considerable opposition to PRGT.
Indigenous hereditary chiefs belonging to the Gitxsan and Gitanyow Nation previously signed benefit agreements to support PRGT, but Mr. Sutherland-Wilson said those deals are lacking substance. “The whole thing is just wishy washy,” he said.