The Liberal caucus has struggled repeatedly for consensus on the Israel-Hamas war.DAVE CHAN/AFP/Getty Images
Just over a year ago, the Liberal caucus was in turmoil over the government’s responses to the war between Israel and Hamas. Factions broke publicly with then-prime minister Justin Trudeau and one MP even threatened to quit.
But the reaction has been far more tempered to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s announcement Wednesday that Canada intends to recognize a Palestinian state this fall, a major shift in government policy.
Insiders say that’s a reflection of the current scale of the crisis in Gaza, but also a different prime minister at a different political time.
“We came to this decision independently, but we are part of processes that are working towards peace, that have strength in breadth and in number,” Mr. Carney said this week.
His announcement followed a flurry of diplomatic activity globally on the Middle East, begun in earnest with French President Emmanuel Macron declaring his support for Palestinian statehood last Friday.
Carney’s policy shift on Palestinian statehood met with cautious hope, criticism by Canadians
Campbell Clark: Carney, the foreign-policy risk-taker
Canada’s Middle East policy is an evergreen source of political tension for the Liberal Party, but caucus has struggled repeatedly for consensus since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and in response, Israel launched its continuing retaliatory campaign.
One group of MPs began calling for a ceasefire within weeks of the war’s start, a move that took the Trudeau Liberals months to make.
Perhaps the biggest flashpoint since the start of the conflict was an NDP-led motion in the spring of 2024 calling for, among other things, the recognition of Palestinian statehood.
The Liberal cabinet was poised to vote against it, but over the objections of many backbench MPs who wanted the government to support the motion and take a harder line on the conflict.
A last-minute scramble saw then-foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly broker a compromise with the NDP to have the motion reflect Canada’s existing position around statehood − that it first required peace − and it passed.
At the time, Liberal MP Anthony Housefather mused openly about leaving the Liberal caucus as a result. He had voted no, saying the resolution amounted to a reward for Hamas.
“I started reflecting on whether or not I belonged,” Mr. Housefather said.
While the scramble on that motion caught many MPs by surprise, Mr. Carney’s announcement this week didn’t.
The Globe and Mail spoke to four MPs, as well as three government insiders, about the deliberations that preceded the decision, which came together in a matter of days. The Globe is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to publicly disclose caucus or internal deliberations.
Though not all agreed with Canada’s new policy, the MPs said the speed of Mr. Carney’s decision in the wake of similar announcements in the past week from France and Britain would not have happened under Mr. Trudeau.
Canada had already been moving toward a shift in policy; in May of 2024, the Trudeau government abstained from a resolution on Palestinian statehood rather than voting “no” as it had in the past.
In the fall of 2024, the United Nations announced a conference for this year on the future of Palestine. It was scheduled for June but postponed after hostilities erupted between Israel and Iran.
Two of the insiders told The Globe that had it happened as scheduled, it’s not clear whether Canada would have taken the position it did this week.
But since June, the war has become further entrenched. Hamas refuses to give up the remaining hostages, while Israel has been accused of blockaded aid and has spoken openly about annexation of territory.
The MPs said that even among constituents who previously had expressed no feelings about the war, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza was ratcheting up broad demand for Canada to change its position on the conflict.
Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, on July 29. International pressure has been mounting on Israel to allow more aid to enter the strip.Hatem Khaled/Reuters
Then, the French President said late last week that his government would recognize a Palestinian state. That was followed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signalling his government’s willingness to do the same.
Mr. Macron’s forceful decision kickstarted backroom conversations in Canada, but Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand headed off to the UN conference without an explicit statement of support in hand to deliver.
She did brief MPs before the meetings, though, holding a call with them from New York to lay the groundwork for the scope of her talks there.
Behind the scenes, aides were preparing Mr. Carney with options. He, in turn, spoke to some individual MPs to solicit their views.
The two insiders told The Globe, however, that the Prime Minister also wanted to stress that his choice would be taken for foreign-policy objectives, not domestic politics. A perception of the Trudeau government had been that it said different things to different political constituencies on the Middle East, and it frustrated MPs.
Movement to recognize Palestinian statehood reflects Israel’s growing isolation
Among the questions Mr. Carney heard was about timing, with Canada locked in trade talks with the U.S. ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline. What if this overly annoyed U.S. President Donald Trump?
The President had not come down hard on Mr. Macron, nor Mr. Starmer, so the Carney Liberals thought they had a window, the insiders said.
Mr. Trump would later criticize the move but also acknowledged that it had little bearing on trade talks.
But the more important window, the insiders said, was the global consensus.
It wasn’t just Mr. Macron and Mr. Starmer, but Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab countries who were now insisting that Hamas must stop fighting and relinquish control in Gaza.
“It does matter that others are moving. It does matter, because it increases the prospect of success,” Mr. Carney said Wednesday.
MPs said they weren’t persuaded on that point. Three pointed out that the decision doesn’t change the fact that Palestinian civilians can’t access food, nor will it lead to the release of hostages.
But public disparagement of the Prime Minister won’t be their response, they said. The MPs said caucus has reunited under Mr. Carney, and with Canadian unity the order of the day, it’s unlikely anyone will publicly cross him. They pointed to the fact that Mr. Carney briefed all of caucus on his decision before it was publicly announced − but nobody leaked it.
In the caucus briefing, there was little pushback, the MPs said.
And little was evident in public statements either. Many MPs were quick to applaud the move.
“This is what meeting the moment looks like. This is leadership. This is Canada,” said MP Fares Al Soud.
Even as he broadly disagreed with Mr. Carney’s move, Mr. Housefather said he also believed that the Prime Minister heard his concerns, citing the imposition of conditions on Canada’s recognition.
“I will continue to work with like-minded colleagues to ensure that this approach is pursued by the government,” he said.