Davenport: Broncos (+1.5)

This may be the hardest game of the weekend to predict.

If there was reason to believe the Broncos could run the ball consistently against Buffalo’s Jekyll-and-Hyde defense and take pressure off Bo Nix and an inconsistent Denver passing game, it would be far easier—but the quarterback is going to have to make plays against Buffalo’s top-ranked pass defense.

Denver’s defense is going to be the story of this game, though, for a number of reasons.

The first is a run defense that can do what the Jaguars did a week ago and slow down Bills running back James Cook. The second is a seventh-ranked pass defense that is going to make throwing the ball far harder than last week. The third is a smothering pass rush that led the NFL (by a wide margin) in sacks with 68 in the regular season.

Sean Payton is 4-0 in his playoff career coming off a bye week. He is, however, only 1-3 in his last four postseason games and 0-1 as Broncos coach—Denver lost to Josh Allen and the Bills at Buffalo in the Wild Card Round last year.

Home-field advantage matters here as the Broncos were 8-1 at Mile High this season, but only one of those home wins came against a playoff team (not counting Week 18 when LAC rested its starters). 

The Broncos went 3-2 against other playoff foes this year, and one of those wins was against the Texans in a game that C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion early in the second quarter—incidentally, the last time Houston lost this season. All that is to say, it’s hard to trust these Broncos at this time. 

Josh Allen is the NFL’s ultimate X-factor playing right now. The flawed Bills have to take the hardest road, literally on the road, no matter how far they advance, but sometimes that gauntlet is exactly what a team needs.

Getting points is a bonus in this forced-pick scenario, but Buffalo wins outright as the Bills continue their Super Bowl march.

Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O’Donnell

Broncos: Davenport, Sobleski