Yeesh.

The first five minutes of this game looked like it could’ve been a much different type of night, as the Leafs tilted the ice and created good looks for Easton Cowan off an OEL-generated rebound and a deflection off the ref that set up Steven Lorentz, who could easily have three or four goals in his last two games but scored zero. A bad penalty by Simon Benoit and two mistakes by Jake McCabe (on the PK and at five-on-five) later, and the Leafs were down 2-0 and never really recovered, despite scoring a nice power-play goal to halve the deficit to 2-1 late in the first.

Outside of the first five minutes, one late-first-period power play (featuring John Tavares’ goal), and I suppose not completely lying down and quitting in the third period when down four, there was not much to like about this performance from the Leafs. When the score was 5-1 Minnesota through 40 minutes, shots on goal were 29-16 for the Wild, who were dominating the five-on-five metrics.

The Leafs weren’t there competitively when the game was still a contest; slower than the Wild, losing most of the battles, lacking detail, and too soft and permissive around their net front again. The Leafs have allowed five or more goals in their three losses over the last four games — after allowing just five in total over the three-game winning streak preceding it — as both the goaltending and the defensive play have taken a dip while the condensed schedule has really bared its teeth entering the latter half of January.

Straight into the notes…

Post-Game Notes

– To start with a positive, while Matthews and Laughton’s lines roughly split the Kaprizov-Hartman-Zuccarello matchup (unsuccessfully in the case of Matthews’ line), the Nic Roy line feasted in the secondary matchups. While the Matthews line probably didn’t deserve a garbage-time goal to pretty up their stats a little bit, the Roy line did, and their 5-2 tally was borne of a lunchpail effort/a nice “ugly” goal. They were up 17-4 in shot attempts in their minutes. That means the Wild out-attempted the Leafs 51-30 when this Roy line wasn’t on the ice.

– Since he returned from injury, Jake McCabe has been out-scored 7-1 at five-on-five, and it’s certainly not just bad luck or a low on-ice save percentage driving those results (expected goals are just 30% in his minutes). He is making bad decisions with and without the puck, with an example of each on the first two Wild goals. I don’t want to sit here and blame coaching or shift blame away from where it mainly lies; McCabe flat-out needs to be better.

That said, his best game during this stretch (low bar) probably came in Winnipeg, where he was playing next to Troy Stecher, which has been a good pairing overall (up 14-6 in five-on-five goals). They switched it up because Simon Benoit returned, which didn’t make sense. If OEL is playing the right side anyway, he may as well play with Benoit while shifting around into different spots (o-zone draws with Rielly, etc.) and keeping the other two pairs the same. Stecher ended up playing 16.5 minutes, even though he is unquestionably one of the four best defensemen on this team right now, while the struggling Morgan Rielly played over 23. This was an inexcusable, unforced coaching error, in my view.

– The play by Max Domi leading to the back-breaking 4-1 breakaway goal by Vladimir Tarasenko that all but put this game out of reach, given the team’s energy levels, is one of the incredibly maddening parts of his game (puck management decisions) that he just can’t kick consistently. It’s such a brain-dead play in the middle frame; the D badly needed to make the long trip to the bench for a change, so you either make a solid play with it to McMann, who likely deflects it in or dumps it, or you gain center yourself and put it in deep. The lack of detail there will kill you in the second period. It is such a cheap goal to concede. A tired team needs to play smarter than this to keep the game within reach and give itself a chance to grind one out. It would also need special teams to hold its own, but they lost that battle 2-1.

– The 2-0 goal was also a cheap one (and a similarly bizarre decision with the puck leading to a turnover), given the Leafs were in control after a defensive-zone faceoff win. McCabe decided neither to flip it out properly nor to make a pass to McMann’s tape, choosing some weird in-between where he just kind of sauced it out of McMann’s reach to the other team.

– It’s also concerning how the front of the Leafs’ net has become an easy place to play of late through this recent rough defensive stretch. The goaltending hasn’t been spectacular by any stretch, but they’re not really cleaning up their sight lines or picking up sticks/boxing out hard (while also not getting in lanes particularly well). This game reminded me of some of their early-season defensive play; a really cheap rush goal against, and the opposition just feasting in front of the net, where the Leafs prided themselves on their identity as one of the toughest teams to penetrate last season. They need to be stiffer when protecting the prime real estate in front, and if they aren’t getting the box out, they need to get in the shooting lane. This part of the defensive regression in recent games may well relate to fatigue; the physical part vs. the “mental” part of the equation alluded to earlier.

– Speaking of fatigue… I don’t want to look backward and cry over spilled milk here, but I can’t help but reflect on the Leafs’ softer schedule to start the year and rue all of those squandered points. They’re in a position now where they’re facing an absolutely brutal schedule against a really tough slate of opponents. With enough points in the bank, I’d sit here and write, “Just try to collect around half the points, and we’ll regroup after the break.” Instead, they really can’t afford to play .500 or worse hockey, or they put a ton of pressure on themselves to go on a big run out of the break (they’re capable of one, but the margin for error gets smaller and smaller should injuries, bad puck luck, or bad goaltending creep in).

On top of that, they’re missing their top point producer right now. Matthew Knies is also labouring through an injury, living in a strange place where it’s debatable if he should be playing or if they’d be better off resting him and getting the fresh legs of a Jacob Quillan in the lineup while promoting Scott Laughton, who might actually add a nice jolt of speed and spunk to that Tavares-Maccelli combo.

The next eight games are a real rubber-meets-the-road stretch, including games against Detroit (who they should be really motivated not to get swept by), Vegas (obvious motivation with the way the last one ended, plus Marner’s return to Toronto), Buffalo (rival, one point ahead in the wildcard race), and Edmonton (need no introduction, lit up the Leafs in Toronto last month). Somehow, someway, the Leafs have to battle through here and grind out results, or it will be getting late early coming out of the break.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/Joe Bowen: Wild 6 vs. Maple Leafs 3