One of the hallmark indicators of an elite NHL talent is a player’s ability to make everyone around him better. It matters not the deployment situation, playing environment or combination of teammates – blue-chip talent is the rising tide that lifts all boats.
Golden Knights forward Mitch Marner is on the short list of players capable of elevating the performance of everyone around them. And while it’s easy to understand why a core part of the Maple Leafs fan base still feels angry about Marner’s departure from the organization, there’s no question he’s been a huge boon to a Vegas lineup eyeing a second Stanley Cup parade.
Marner’s exodus from Toronto was a painful and drawn-out process. The Maple Leafs knew the talent Marner possessed, but had to reconcile that against perennial playoff failures, a sizable looming contract extension, and the reality that Marner was reticent to extend with a Toronto team struggling to get over the hump.
Marner leveraged his contract situation – an expiring deal coupled with a full no-movement clause – to force his way to a preferred destination in Vegas. And to that end, it’s easy to see why there’s no love lost between the city and the player.
But Marner has been sensational as a new fixture in the Vegas’ lineup. He’s still more than a point-per-game player offensively, but it’s the on-ice dominance the Golden Knights’ lineup is realizing that has pushed Marner back into elite status.
Vegas is outscoring opponents 38-to-26 (+12) with Marner deployed, the best total for any forward on their roster. Much of it tied to his line’s outperformance on the defensive end of the ice. And that’s not just strong goaltending behind Marner either – expected goal rates are just as robust:
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I mentioned earlier that Marner is one of the few players you can find around the league who appears to elevate the performance of everyone he plays with. And to be sure, Marner has been exposed to a sea of different lineups and combinations in his first few months in Vegas.
His most common linemates have been Pavel Dorofeyev and Tomas Hertl, but he’s been sprinkled around the top nine all year, and the Golden Knights have rolled all three defensive pairings equitably with Marner deployed. No matter who is on the ice with him though, Marner’s raised their production accordingly:
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The average Golden Knights skater is about +0.2 goals per 60 better than the opposition when playing away from Marner. When playing with Marner, that number jumps, on average, to +1.2 goals per 60 minutes played.
For comparison’s sake, that’s about the difference in play between the New York Islanders (+0.2 per 60) and a team better than the Tampa Bay Lightning (+0.9 goals per 60), who are second in the NHL in goal differential through Wednesday.
Marner is paid to produce like this and, frankly, the pressure will still be heavy on his shoulders come playoff time. The Golden Knights may have one Stanley Cup, but this is a franchise that expects to win in the postseason every single year, and any playoff underperformance will bring back valid criticism of his game and what he looks like as the competition stiffens.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey
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