India’s air superiority during the 88-hour Operation Sindoor compelled Pakistan to seek a ceasefire during the May 7–10, 2025 conflict, according to a detailed European military analysis. The study finds that India retained escalation dominance throughout the confrontation, safeguarded its most critical air-defence assets and denied Pakistani forces any decisive operational gains.

According to the analysis, New Delhi controlled both the tempo and the ceiling of escalation across the four-day engagement, emerging with a clear operational advantage by protecting key assets, degrading Pakistani military capabilities and demonstrating credible deep-strike capacity without breaching nuclear thresholds.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADEuropean military study validates India’s operational edge

The findings are detailed in Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025), authored by military analyst Adrien Fontanellaz and published last week by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM), an independent Swiss military history and strategic studies institution based in Pully, Switzerland.

Founded in 1969, CHPM positions itself as a neutral forum for professional military research and lessons-learned analysis. The publication underwent institutional review by a committee that includes Joseph Henrotin, a Paris-based strategic analyst; Claude Meier, a retired Swiss Air Force major general and former chief of staff; and Arthur Lüsenti, a specialist in nuclear doctrine and arms control.

A decisive shift in India’s crisis-response doctrine

The report notes that India’s response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack marked a clear departure from earlier crisis-management precedents. Political leadership under Prime Minister Narendra Modi authorised strikes against Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba infrastructure deep inside Pakistani territory, while granting the armed forces broad operational freedom to manage escalation.

This shift, the analysis suggests, reflected a calculated decision to impose costs on both terror networks and the Pakistani military without allowing Islamabad to dictate escalation dynamics.

India dismantles Pakistan’s air-defence shield

Following Pakistani attacks on the night of May 7–8, India activated a second escalation phase that had been planned in advance as part of Operation Sindoor. On May 8, the Indian Air Force launched a sustained air interdiction campaign against Pakistan’s air-defence network, targeting border surveillance radars and long-range surface-to-air missile systems.

Eight air-defence sites were struck on May 8 and four more on May 9. At least two early-warning radars at Chunian and Pasrur were visually confirmed as neutralised. While Pakistan claimed it shot down 25 drones on May 9, the report underlines that these assertions did little to offset the broader collapse in airspace awareness.

One Indian S-400 battery reportedly caught the Pakistan Air Force off guard, engaging an Erieye or electronic warfare aircraft operating at extended range. The IAF claimed the aircraft was destroyed at a distance close to 300 kilometres.

The cumulative effect, the report states, was a sharp degradation of Pakistan’s airspace coverage, with surviving radars forced to shut down emissions to avoid detection — effectively blinding sections of the country’s air-defence network.

Precision deep strikes expose Pakistan’s vulnerabilities

After detecting preparations for a Pakistani strike planned for the evening of May 9, Indian forces opted for a rapid and pre-emptive response. Between 02:00 and 05:00 on May 10, the IAF launched BrahMos, SCALP-EG and Rampage missiles from Su-30MKIs, Jaguars and Rafales operating within Indian airspace.

Seven targets up to 200 kilometres inside Pakistan were hit, including one surface-to-air missile battery and five air bases. Nur Khan Air Base near Islamabad suffered damage to a command-and-control centre, while Murid Air Base — central to Pakistan’s MALE drone operations — saw drone hangars and a control facility struck.

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Rahim Yar Khan Air Base sustained multiple runway impacts, while its civilian terminal, reportedly hosting a drone control centre, was also badly damaged. Rafiqi Air Base was targeted, though India did not disclose damage details. At Sukkur Air Base, a drone hangar and radar facility were hit.

Second wave targets manned aircraft, tightens the noose

After identifying further Pakistani counterstrike preparations, the IAF launched a second wave of attacks around 10:00 on May 10. Using the same weapons and tactics, India expanded its targeting to include manned aircraft.

Sargodha Air Base was rendered inoperative after missile strikes at runway intersections. At Jacobabad Air Base, an F-16 maintenance hangar was hit, along with radar, electrical and cooling infrastructure. At Bholari Air Base, a hangar housing one or more Erieye aircraft was severely damaged.

Pakistan seeks ceasefire after sustained losses

The IAF assessed that at least four or five F-16s, one Erieye aircraft, one C-130 transport aircraft, several MALE drones, two radars, two command-and-control centres and one surface-to-air missile battery were destroyed on the ground, using roughly 50 long-range munitions.

Pakistan later claimed the Erieye aircraft at Bholari was only lightly damaged and quickly repaired, though it acknowledged the death of five personnel.

By noon on May 10, Pakistani military authorities requested a ceasefire, which India accepted. The report concludes that New Delhi achieved its political and military objectives — delivering punitive strikes against terror infrastructure while neutralising Pakistan’s military response — and brought the conflict to a close firmly on its own terms.

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