Yes, you read that headline correctly. Florida could see flurries this weekend due to a rare setup that will trigger “Gulf-effect snow.” Areas from the Big Bend of Florida down to the Fort Myers/Naples region could see snowflakes.
Unusually cold air is forecast to sweep across the South and into Florida this weekend – some of the coldest the Sunshine State has felt in over 15 years. On Saturday night, lingering moisture from the nor’easter barreling up the East Coast could mix with the dangerously cold air and produce flurries or a rain/snow mix along Florida’s Gulf Coast.
This is similar to lake-effect snow, which you often hear about happening in the Great Lakes. Lake-effect snow forms when very cold Arctic air moves over warmer water. The air just above the water warms slightly, rises quickly through the colder air above, forming clouds and producing snow downwind.
In Florida, “Gulf-effect snow” can happen when frigid air rolls over the relatively warmer Gulf waters. For this to happen, there needs to be a long fetch of northwest winds picking up moisture, combined with a big enough difference between the water temperature and the cold air above. The larger the temperature difference, the faster the air rises boosting the chance of snow formation.
The FOX Forecast Centers says the chance for a rain/snow mix Saturday night is low, with only flurries possible along coastal areas. To put this in perspective, measurable snow in Florida is incredibly rare. Tampa has only recorded measurable snow twice: 0.2″ on January 19, 1977, and 0.1″ on February 13, 1899. Naples, FL, which could also see flurries, has never recorded measurable snow. While flurries have been observed in Central Florida before, accumulating snow is exceptionally difficult due to warm ground temperatures.