They aren’t dead yet. The Maple Leafs will head into the Olympic break on a three-game winning streak and five points out of a playoff spot.

To me, it’s still not enough to consider changing course on selling before the deadline, but that’s a different story. For now, let’s discuss a nice Leaf effort to pick up two points in Edmonton, which never won’t be enjoyable. 

Even though the Leafs didn’t score on their first shift as they did in Calgary the night before, I liked their first shift a lot better in this game. They got the puck in deep, threw some hits, won some battles, and Auston Matthews set up Max Domi for an immediate grade-A chance.

The Oilers responded with a grade-A of their own courtesy of a Leon Draisaitl shot in the slot set up by Kasperi Kapanen. That save turned out to be a good sign for Anthony Stolarz, who — for the first time in a long time — was clearly dialed in between the pipes.

The Leafs weren’t sustaining a ton of pressure, but they were creating high-danger chances. Nick Robertson walked into the slot for a good shot on net and also set up Nic Roy for a great slot chance. William Nylander also walked in through the slot after a crafty setup from Matias Maccelli.

There was a real trading-chances feel to the game in the first 10 minutes. The Oilers created a few off the rush, and Phillippe Myers basically saved a goal by blocking a rebound look for Jack Roslovic.

11 minutes into the period, Connor McDavid broke in all alone and drew a penalty off of OEL, even though it looked like McDavid was mainly tripped up by his own speed. Leon Draisaitl made a nice spin move on a chasing Jake McCabe and sent a cross-crease pass to Zach Hyman, but Stolarz shut the door. The Leafs also went on a 2v1 of their own shorthanded; Scott Laughton chose to keep it and shoot, but he missed his spot when aiming shortside high.

The game started to heat up from there. It started on an icing call where Simon Benoit gave Andrew Mangiapane a little bump for riding too close to the sun. On the ensuing shift, after the puck was flipped in on Stolarz, Mangiapane skated right up to the Leafs‘ goalie and snowed him for no reason at all. Stolarz rightfully took exception, and OEL jumped to the defense of his goalie by throwing some bombs.

Naturally, the refs called coincidentals, even though Mangiapane was completely to blame, and they weren’t going to call the initial nonsense until the Leafs responded. Still, it was encouraging to see an appropriate response from the Leafs to an opponent messing with their netminder, and it was no surprise that it came from OEL, a proven winner who understands what it takes. 

Shots in the period finished at 9-8 for Edmonton, who recorded two on the power play, so the Leafs outshot the Oilers at five-on-five. Shot attempts were 18-11 for the Oilers at five aside, but in terms of chance generation, it was a fairly even opening frame.

Notably, at four-on-four, after Matthews-Nylander started it off, a duo of Tavares and McMann was followed by Domi and Laughton. Laughton has been underutilized all season, but he took a shift ahead of a struggling/playing-injured Matthew Knies.

The game’s temperature continued to rise in the second period when Brandon Carlo caught Connor McDavid in open ice. Darnell Nurse waited for the end of Carlo’s shift while Nurse was still fresh, and then Nurse challenged Carlo to a fight. Why there wasn’t an instigator penalty here is beyond me; the fight clearly came in response to a hit, and Nurse incited the scrap after a clean, legal hit by Carlo.

Carlo and Nurse fight after McDavid gets clipped

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— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) February 4, 2026

A few minutes later, the Leafs finally broke the ice. After they missed a 2v1 between Nylander and Maccelli, where Nylander elected to keep and shoot (which was the right call, as the defenseman sold out on the pass), Maccelli hit the bar on the rebound. Nylander stuck with it and sent the puck to the point, where McCabe made a really nice play to buy a second of time before ripping a low shot/pass type play at Maccelli, who applied a great between-the-legs tip to open the scoring. 

“QUIET, MR. RALPH! THE LEAFS ARE BUSY SCORING GOALS HERE!”

Maccelli 9th of the Season vs Oilers

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— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) February 4, 2026

The Oilers pushed back after falling 1-0 behind, and roughly four minutes later, they tied it up on a rather innocent play. It really started the shift before when Tavares didn’t get it out with an opportunity to clear, losing a battle to RNH. The Oilers created a great chance on a side-of-the-net McDavid one-timer that Stolarz read well to stop. On the subsequent faceoff, Laughton scrummed the draw; he didn’t really lose it, and the puck was lying beside the faceoff circle for a second, but Samanski beat OEL to it. Samanski bumped it back to Jake Walman, who stepped into a bomb. It was a good shot, but with no tip and not much of a screen, you’d really like to see Stolarz save it. 

It was easily forgotten nine seconds later, though, when Knies restored the lead. On an awkward exchange between Ingram and Nurse, the puck came up the wall, where Roy made a great play to immediately rip a pass to Knies in the slot. Roy didn’t hold the puck or stickhandle it; he just immediately ripped a pass to the middle, where Knies pulled it backhand and nudged it into the empty net for his first point of the four-game road trip. 

Knies 14th of the Season vs Oilers

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— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) February 4, 2026

Knies’ goal was the Leafs’ 20th shot of the night, leveling the shot clock at 20-20. By the time the period ended, shots were 27-20 for the Oilers. It carried over to the third period, where RNH immediately had a grade-A look off the rush barely 30 seconds into the period. The Oilers continued to carry the play until Kasperi Kapanen danced around a lazy stick wave by Max Domi and sent a nice finish in the top corner.

Matthews had one good scoring chance before then, but the puck was bouncing. Domi also had a good look in the slot off a Stecher pass, but otherwise, it felt like it was a matter of time until the Oilers tied it, which they accomplished under five minutes into the period.

The Oilers held the momentum after the 2-2 goal, and shortly afterward, Stolarz made a huge save on Evan Bouchard. A few shifts later, the game turned again when Matthew Savoie took an interference penalty, and six seconds into the power play, Mattias Janmark was called for a high stick on Matthews. Out of nowhere, the Leafs were headed to a full 5v3 man advantage.

It was an effective 5v3 for the Leafs, featuring tons of movement and rotation. After Matthews stepped into the slot and tried to feed Knies, Knies bumped it to Nylander by the faceoff dot, where Nylander showed some nice deception to sell the pass. He shifted up high before ripping it backdoor to Tavares for an easy finish and Tavares’ 20th goal of the season.

“NYLANDER FINDS JOHNNY TORONTO!”

Tavares 20th of the Season vs Oilers

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— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) February 4, 2026

With a minute of power-play time still remaining, the coaching staff easily could have justified keeping the top unit out, but I loved that they turned to PP2 for fresh legs. It paid off.

All four forwards changed, but OEL remained the QB. OEL walked the line and passed it to Domi on the half-wall, where Domi made a great cross-ice pass to Maccelli, who one-timed the puck really well. If I’m honest, it is not a shot I thought Maccelli had in him. It was now a two-goal lead for the Leafs and a two-goal game for Maccelli, who is up to 10 goals this season.

“BACK TO BACK POWERPLAY GOALS!”

Maccelli 10th of the Season vs Oilers

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— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) February 4, 2026

From there, the Leafs actually defended their two-goal lead really well. The Oilers created one chance of note; McDavid danced around Matthews and found Draisaitl for a patented one-timer, but Stolarz robbed him. Otherwise, the Oilers essentially created nothing between the Leafs’ 4-2 goal and Bobby McMann’s empty netter to make it 5-2. 

The shot attempts in this game were a complete eyesore for the Leafs at 63-38 at five-on-five. They once again parked the bus far too much with the lead, especially when they were up 2-1. However, it’s worth noting that the Leafs essentially hedged the expected goals at 48-52% over all situations in a game where the Leafs were leading for over a full period worth of hockey. There is still room for improvement, but there was also a lot to like about this Leafs performance.

Post-Game Notes

– After the Calgary win, I gave some serious thought to the idea of turning to Joseph Woll again between the pipes because he was so dialed in the night prior, while also acknowledging that at some point Anthony Stolarz would figure it out. He’s simply too good to play this poorly all season. In the end, you can make a real case that it was Stolarz’s best start of the season. The Oilers have a ton of talent and did not make his life easy at all, but he was really, really good. It was nice to see him finally give the team one of these performances, and for the first time this season, we experienced a back-to-back where the Leafs simply received excellent goaltending on both nights (a more common sight last season). 

– After the Leafs beat the Canucks but lost Morgan Rielly to injury, we noted in this space that the team would be set up well because, if nothing else, the pairings would make more sense. It was never logical to push Troy Stecher to the third pairing with Simon Benoit to facilitate a Rielly-Carlo pairing that simply hasn’t worked at any point. When Carlo originally returned, we wanted to see this McCabe-Carlo pairing as a sensible shutdown unit in the absence of Chris Tanev.

The McCabe-Carlo pairing was really effective in this one, blanking McDavid. McCabe, in particular, played a monstrous 25:16 while notching a nice primary assist and adding four shots on net. Carlo played 19:22, including a fight.

Both OEL and Stecher also played 22+ minutes, although that pairing experienced some ups and downs. Technically, they were on for both Oilers goals, but one came off a faceoff (OEL could have done better) and the other stemmed from Domi getting torched in the defensive zone. Either way, the defense makes a lot more sense and doesn’t bleed easy goals against without Rielly in the top four. 

Carlo is obviously very limited with the puck, but in terms of pure defending, he’s really effective with his size and length. McCabe went out of his way to lock down McDavid as well.

– When we eventually reflect on the 2025-26 season, I’m sure people will lament injuries and specific bad stretches of hockey, which is totally fair. But I will also lament Craig Berube screwing around the forward lineup for over a month because Laughton broke his foot in preseason, and repeatedly trotting out nonsensical defense pairings during their (ostensibly) season-destroying homestand in late January.

– John Tavares technically ended the game with the game-winner — which, again, was a great tip, so full marks for it — but he otherwise struggled and played just 14:54. Particularly strange for him, Tavares went 3/11 in the faceoff circle, which started impacting his ice time and the line combinations as the game progressed.

Scott Laughton actually played more minutes than Tavares (15:05), and Nic Roy was just a hair below him at 14:42. It felt about right as Tavares has really laboured for well over a month now. His last shift of the game was particularly brutal; the Leafs had it deep, where he lost it on the half-wall for a quick transition instead of cycling it low. Later in the shift, while in possession at center, he once again did not get it deep. The score was 4-2 at the time, and the leaders needed to set an example by getting pucks deep and playing smart hockey with under six minutes left on the road. This is Tavares’ 17th year in the league; he clearly should know better by now. Berube ran a Knies-Roy-Nylander line as well as a Laughton-Matthews-McMann unit to close the game.

– That’s now three goals in two games for Matias Maccelli heading into the break to give him 10 goals and 24 points in 46 games. He is limited defensively, and that’s why he played just 11:29, but he is making plays and creating offense. Since he was reinserted into the lineup following nine straight healthy scratches, he has potted 15 points in 24 games. 

– While Nick Robertson was pointless in this game, I really liked his performance yet again. His speed was dangerous, he created a good chance for Roy, and he got robbed on a one-timer in the high slot. This Robertson-Roy pairing has some real legs; they have played nearly 250 minutes together now and are up 11-9 in goals, while hovering just under 49% in shot attempts and over 52% in expected goals. Roy’s size and ability to hold onto pucks, combined with Robertson’s speed and offensive skill, is turning into a productive combination.

– I’m hearing that the league will review the officials’ performance in this game after calling two penalties on a Toronto opponent. This must not stand.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/ Joe Bowen: Maple Leafs 5 vs. Oilers 2