Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FOMO OF THE OTHER KIND
Barfoot & Thompson’s sales transaction levels were up in July and to a four year high (for a July) but average prices were slightly lower. Their stock levels were at a 17 year high. Sellers are rushing to list before prices fall even more.

MORE, AND MORE COMPLEX
The FMA says there’s been a rise in the number of misconduct cases related to suspected mortgage fraud – and they’re getting more complex.

LONGER, BUT NOT MUCH LONGER
Latest monthly RBNZ figures show that in June there was a marked shift in preference to one-year fixed mortgages, particularly for investors.

DAIRY FARMERS ARE BORROWING AGAIN, AND IN A BIG WAY
RBNZ data for new lending in June shows it strong for the rural sector. In fact since this C70 series started in April 2021, June 2024 was a record high, adding +$2.1 bln in the month, 70% of it for dairy sector lending.

NZX50 LANGUISHING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is starting the week little-changed, -0.1% from Friday, down -1.4% from a week ago, and down -2.6% since the start of the year, but up +3.8% from a year ago. There are gains today by Tourism Holdings, Mercury, Goodman, Oceania. These are offset by declines for Gentrack, Fletcher, Infratil, and Vulcan Steel

FINTECH PUSHES NEW BENEFITS
British digital fintech Revolut operates in New Zealand, and has now launched ‘Plus’ benefits – higher exchange/transaction limits for international transactions, comprehensive purchase protection insurance, and no Revolut ATM withdrawal fees (up to $350 per month) with no frequency limit.

TO BE SOLD TO THE IRISH?
Multiple offers to restructure meat processor Alliance Group are firming up with an Irish bid from Dawn Meats a likely front runner. The Dawn Meats offer is said to be for 70% of Alliance.

TOP END WORRY
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June’s modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders – and mortgage holders – as the year unfolds.

FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a separate service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au

SWAP RATES FALL
Sovereign interest rates are falling on the bad US data over the weekend. That suggests risk aversion is extending into the new week. Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today and across the whole maturity range, all on these global influences. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.19% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at just under 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.50% but down -8 bps at 4.45% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this morning at just over 4.25% but that’s a net -13 bps fall from Friday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, EXCEPT SINGAPORE
The local equity market is now down -0.1% in late Monday trade. And the ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.6%. Hong Kong is up +0.4% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore has risen +0.7% however. Wall Street is signaling in after hours futures trading that it will open tomorrow up +0.8%, a bounce after Friday’s sharp -1.6% fall.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is holding at just over US$69/bbl. And the international Brent price is still at US$69.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price rose +$1 today to NZ$57/NZU but on few trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$9 from this morning at US$3352/oz.

NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down another -10 bps from this morning, now at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding lower at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down at 67 and a -10 bps retreat from this morning.

BITCOIN STAYS DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,801 and up +0.6% from this morning. Volatility has been low, at just on +/-0.7%.

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