Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership is in serious jeopardy due to the Lord Mandelson scandal, meaning MPs are discussing who could replace him as Labour leader and Prime Minister with more urgency than usual.
Alongside the familiar field of possible candidates, such as Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood, a lesser known name has emerged.
Alistair ‘Al’ Carns, the Armed Forces minister, is being touted in some quarters as having an outside chance to move into No 10.
New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.
In many respects, the fact that Carns is being talked about as the potential next prime minister is remarkable. The MP for Selly Oak in Birmingham has only been in Parliament since 2024 and is on the lowest rung of the ministerial ladder as a parliamentary under-secretary.
What he does have going for him is a highly distinguished previous career in the Armed Forces.
Military Cross holder who advised three defence secretaries
A former Royal Marines colonel, Carns was born in Aberdeen and educated at a state school, He joined the military at the age of 19 and was a soldier for 24 years. During that time he completed four tours of Afghanistan and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services” in that country “during the period 1 October 2010 to 31 March 2011”.
He was due to become a brigadier general when he resigned his commission in 2024 to contest Selly Oak, which he held for Labour with a majority of 11,537 at the general election.
While Carns is a novice MP and minister, he is no stranger to Whitehall, having served as a military adviser to three defence secretaries: Conservatives Michael Fallon, Gavin Williamson and Penny Mordaunt.
He was one of a small number of MPs in the 2024 intake to immediately be given a ministerial role after the election, with Starmer appointing him veterans’ minister. He was reshuffled to the Armed Forces brief in September last year.
Even as a minister, Carns has been able to maintain his action-packed military lifestyle by volunteering as a Royal Marines reservist. Last week, he posted photos of himself on social media “dusting off some old skills and drills” by scaling a frozen waterfall with comrades in Norway, as part of his reservist training.
Conquered Everest in five days
And in May last year he accomplished the extraordinary feat of climbing Mount Everest in just five days without acclimatising on the mountain. The expedition, with three British former Special Forces soldiers, was achieved by using xenon gas to pre-acclimatise.
Carns’s physical courage and military glamour has helped build a media profile which has led to him being discussed as a potential leadership candidate.
It is not the first time that Westminster pundits have alighted on an ex-soldier during the tenure of an unconvincing Labour leader. During Ed Miliband’s stint in charge, former major Dan Jarvis was widely touted as a replacement, though this came to nothing.
Speculation about Carns has been fed extra fuel because of his own evident ambitions. When Rayner resigned as deputy Labour leader last autumn, Carns put his name forward for the position. While he quickly withdrew it, he was the only MP from the 2024 intake with the self-belief to offer his services.
With Starmer’s future now in doubt, he has not appeared particularly inclined to douse speculation about his intentions. On Sunday – with No 10 in chaos after the announcement of Morgan McSweeney’s resignation as chief of staff – Carns posted a smiling picture of himself with a pint. “A quiet beverage on a Sunday afternoon,” was the laconic comment he appended to it.
His impressive career outside politics would no doubt endear him to the British public, whose admiration for those who have served in uniform is beyond question.
A recent video of a constituency visit, in which he beat a young firefighter in a pull-up contest (achieving 30 to his rival’s 18) is the social media content most politicians can only dream of.
However, it still seems very unlikely that he would succeed Starmer if the Prime Minister were to be toppledimminently.
Carns could influence the Starmer endgame
Carns’s lack of top-level political experience or a well established power base in the party would seem to count him out. For all his charisma, too little is known at the moment about his political beliefs and instincts.
However, he could still play an important role in how events now unfold. One Labour MP said Carns could be the one who moves first to trigger a leadership contest, although they suggested that Streeting’s and Rayner’s teams will be urging him behind the scenes not to go early.
“Al thought about going for deputy leader because six people said he should. He could start the whole thing off,” they said.
Even if he doesn’t end up throwing his hat into the ring, Carns’s rapidly growing profile would make his endorsement a great prize for any candidate, and could supercharge his ascent up the ministerial ladder if Starmer does get forced out.