Gorton and Denton by-election is crucial to the Prime Minister’s chances of survival
For two hours on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer looked in serious danger of losing his grip on power.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar had let it be known he was about to call for the Prime Minister to go, while the operation in No 10 was still reeling from the departure of chief of staff Morgan McSweeney on Sunday and communications director Tim Allan on Monday morning.
While the Cabinet had woken up to the danger Starmer was in – one called The i Paper to lend their off-record support – it was imperative his most senior ministers publicly back the PM.
A save-Starmer operation “war room” was put into place in No 10 led by political pirector Amy Richards, according to one source. Another insider described it as a “team effort”, leading to a clean sweep of supportive Cabinet posts on social media just as Sarwar got to his feet in Scotland.
MPs told ‘Starmer could jump’
In a sign of how serious the situation became, some of Starmer’s parliamentary lieutenants – not acting under direct instruction from No 10 – pushed MPs to examine exactly how they felt about the him: “A message was pushed from loyalists that Keir could jump”, a Labour MP said.
“The problem with crying wolf is you can only do it so many times.”
As one Labour insider said: “Most MPs looked over the edge and said [they were] not sure a change would be a real change for the better and have given him another shot.”
However, within hours the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, appeared to make a leadership play by releasing his texts with Peter Mandelson to get ahead of accusations he was too close to the disgraced ex-US ambassador.
And the following day Starmer was once again embroiled in scandal, as The i Paper revealed he had been forced to strip his former spin doctor Matthew Doyle of the Labour whip in the Lords, despite knowing about his links with a sex offender before his elevation.
Matthew Doyle being introduced to the House of Lords in January (Photo: UK Parliament/PA)
It is no wonder that many senior Labour figures believe Starmer remains doomed.
One senior MP described it as “the week the end started”, with the PM losing “the power to make his own decisions – including reshuffles and policy decisions”.
They added: “I think it’s game over. The only reason it’s not happened yet is because there isn’t an out-and-out challenger – those who want the job are waiting for him to step down.”
‘I got told I love nonces’
A minister gave the Prime Minister a “30 to 40 per cent chance” of keeping hold of his job after the May elections, while a second MP gave a taste of why the party was turning against Starmer: “In two sessions [with constituents] this weekend, Morgan wasn’t mentioned once.
“But I got told I love nonces a lot and got called a c**t twice.”
An MP ally of Starmer said it was possible to turn things around but his position was “fragile”, with the Gorton and Denton by-election and local elections representing moments of danger.
“There’s the capacity just for shit to happen… that a government in a stronger position might be able to brush off, but any of them could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and causes a leadership challenge, or Keir gets put in an unsustainable position and he gets forced out,” they said.
“He’s in the position he is in now largely because the two threats against him – Wes on one side, Angela [Rayner] on the other – were not ready to move.”
Another senior MP said Streeting was the likeliest candidate to strike first: “He knows he needs to go before Angie’s HMRC investigation is sorted. People were discounting him because of the Peter Mandelson messages and he has tried to resolve that.”
Referring to a botched Cabinet coup against then-PM Gordon Brown in 2009, they added: “Wes needs to ensure he isn’t James Purnell… but also not David Miliband.”
Angela Rayner – a likely candidate in any leadership contest – speaking during the Night Time Economy Summit in Liverpool, at which she criticised policies that were harming pubs (Peter Byrne/PA)
Keir ‘underestimated time and again’
Despite the doom and gloom among Labour MPs, No 10 plans to use Starmer’s reprieve to launch a fightback that will see him ramp up his cost of living tour around the UK, showing he is focused on the top priority for voters.
Those left in No 10 have taken heart that they were able to orchestrate such an effective save-Starmer operation amid staffing turmoil, with the chief of staff and communications director having departed in the previous 24 hours.
That turmoil has deepened following the forcing out of Chris Wormald as cabinet secretary – the country’s top civil servant – after little over a year, for which the Prime Minister is also facing criticism.
But Starmer’s team still believes he can save his premiership amid improving indicators on core issues.
Allies believe there is good economic news on the horizon, including falling inflation and interest rates and a potential growth spike, which will allow Rachel Reeves to deliver a policy-lite but upbeat Spring Statement on 3 March.
They also point to plummeting net migration and falling NHS waiting lists as a sign McSweeney was right to cast 2026 as the year the Government turns a corner.
A No 10 source said: “This is because we made hard decisions to invest in public services, help people with the cost of living and restore the public finances at the same time. We can’t turn on ourselves before people begin to feel the benefits of those decisions.
“Keir has been underestimated and written off time and time again. People said he would never be leader. That he would never be prime minister. That he would just squeak home in the general election. Every time he has fought back and won and that’s what he’s going to do now.”
For Wes and against Wes
One Government insider said there was a way Starmer could stay in place indefinitely – a lack of agreement about which candidate should replace him or which political direction to go in.
They said: “There is a path for the PM to stay until the election. The soft left don’t have a candidate, and they’re desperate not to get Wes. And for those who are of the Wes school of thought, they would rather stick with Keir than end up with someone from the soft left.”
And another minister claimed that Starmer had been energised by his political near-death experience, saying: “Keir feels himself. Speaking from the heart. It shows. He’s passionate and determined.”
The Prime Minister may also soon be able to claim a rare win, with sources close to the development of crunch special needs education (SEND) reforms, due to be announced this month, suggesting predictions of a major rebellion are likely to be overblown.
Those close to the process have praised the outreach work done by Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and schools minister Georgia Gould, while Phillipson is likely to frame the reforms as part of a wider overall package for children that includes popular policies including expanding free school meals and the lifting of the two-child benefit cap.
MPs who still back Starmer are largely urging him to take a more inclusive approach with different wings of the party, and to trust his instincts.
“He needs to be true to himself and his values and stand up for what he really thinks,” a minister said, while praising the Prime Minister for being quick to criticise Manchester United owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s comments on immigration.
‘They do have an issue with women’
The PM has also been criticsed this week by senior Labour women over the ‘boys’ club’ culture in No 10 in light of the Mandelson and Doyle controversies.
“They do have an issue with women” a Labour MP said. “We have heard for the last 18 months about the boy’s briefings. In the PLP meeting on Wednesday the PM admitted that he’s unhappy about the briefings in No 10. The question is though, what has he done to stop it?
“The exit of Sue Gray [as chief of staff in 2024], one of the most respected and senior civil servants, demonstrated the direction of travel. And sadly only shored up the fact that Morgan was running the show.
“Whilst Vidhya (Alakeson) and Jill (Cuthbertson) have now been promoted to joint acting chiefs of staff, it will be interesting to see who the permanent appointment will be, that will be very telling.”
Some fear that Starmer’s pledge to involve his MPs more in decisions could lead to a failure to deliver on the election promise of change.
“[It is] really just about taking wider counsel and inclusivity – this has been currency for some time since the welfare bill, but it feels like it all came home after the last week and it now needs to be serious intent on this from Downing Street.
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“My concern is this is all great but introduces inertia and consultation drag… as if we didn’t have that, and drops policy into lowest common denominators which everyone can sign up to.
“It’s a huge dilemma where we descend into sclerosis when the country needs radical change across border security, welfare reform, defence and security etc.”
Reflecting on the colleagues who hold the PM’s future in their hands, the MP added: “Very frustrating PLP.”