Russia is building a “parallel structure” of force outside its Defense Ministry that could be used not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but also to protect President Vladimir Putin from threats at home, analyst William James Dixon warned.
Dixon, a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), which describes itself as the world’s oldest independent defense and security think tank and one of the UK’s leading institutions in that field, told TVP World’s Eastern Express that a recent Kremlin decree appears to strengthen the Russian National Guard, known as Rosgvardia, rather than fold it into the regular military chain of command.
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Instead, he said, the decree elevates Rosgvardia into a system “outside of the Ministry of Defense,” with “overarching operational control” concentrated under its director, Viktor Zolotov, who reports directly to Putin. Dixon described the shift as evidence of a “parallel structure” being created within the Kremlin’s security architecture.
A force built for regime security
The interview focused on what the changes might signal about the Kremlin’s priorities as Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine drags on. Dixon argued that autocratic systems tend to insulate the leader from both elite intrigue and public unrest, especially after moments that expose weakness.
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He linked Rosgvardia’s evolution to the shock of the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny, saying it highlighted that existing capabilities were insufficient to manage a serious internal challenge. Since then, he said, the force has been transformed from what was effectively a policing structure into something closer to a rival military, pointing to reports of specialized units and heavier equipment, including tank formations now being formed within Rosgvardia.
Dixon compared Rosgvardia’s role to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, calling it a “praetorian force” aimed at protecting the regime. He also pointed to a wider tightening of internal controls, including heightened digital surveillance and measures aimed at fragmenting elites, an environment shaped, he argued, by the pressures of a long war.
Battlefield role and future risks
Rosgvardia has also been deployed in Ukraine, including in intense fighting and occupation duties in eastern regions such as the Donbas and in rear-area security roles.
Asked whether creating a privileged parallel force could deepen tensions inside Russia’s military, Dixon said it could become “a flashpoint for further division.” Looking beyond Putin, he warned that such structures may make any future succession more volatile, potentially creating competing power centers in the event of a leadership transition.
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