The head office of Nutrien in downtown Saskatoon in April, 2025.Todd Korol/Reuters
Saskatchewan-based fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd. NTR-T is expecting robust global potash demand to drive growth in 2026, providing its existing supply chains can manage the load.
The world’s largest potash miner and North America’s largest agricultural retailer delivered mixed results for its final 2025 quarter Wednesday evening.
The company’s earnings of 83 US cents per share missed analysts’ consensus of 87 US cents, while revenue of US$5.12-billion similarly fell short of expectations of US$5.26-billion. Sales were lower than forecast because a wet fall season meant farmers did not seed and apply crop nutrients at expected rates.
However, 2025 was still a “defining year” for Nutrien, said chief executive officer Ken Seitz in a conference call with investors Thursday morning. Net earnings were US$2.03-billion, 228 per cent higher than 2024 thanks to record fertilizer sales volumes, and higher retail earnings.
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The company is expecting a strong 2026 driven in large part by climbing potash demand, which Nutrien forecasts will rise to between 74 and 77 million tonnes. Prices for the fertilizer are also 20 per cent higher than they were 12 months ago, and inventories are low.
Solid fundamentals will continue to drive demand, Mr. Seitz said. Potash remains the cheaper of the two other essential fertilizers, nitrogen and phosphate, and record corn and soybean crop across the globe robbed the soil of nutrients, which will now need to be replenished. Facing low prices across most major crops, farmers are also focusing on high yields.
Nutrien projects potash sales volumes will range between 14.1 and 14.8 million tonnes, and will expand production by 200,000 tonnes this year to meet this increased demand. The company will keep costs at or below US$60 per tonne through “granular investments” in mining equipment and automation, Mr. Seitz said in the call.
Should good weather drive demand for potash toward the high end of Nutrien’s forecast, supply chains will tested, Mr. Seitz said.
“We see ourselves in a somewhat balanced market. Let’s see if we get into the higher end of that demand range, what the supply chains are able to handle.”
Nutrien ships potash from six mines across Saskatchewan to terminals in North Vancouver, Saint John and Portland, Ore.
Last year, the company announced plans to expand export capacity with an up to $1-billion export terminal in Longview, Wash. If finalized, this site will ship five to six million tonnes of potash annually to emerging agricultural markets in Asia.
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The terminal will help Nutrien maintain market share in an industry that is set to become increasingly competitive, Nutrien chief commercial officer Chris Reynolds told The Globe and Mail in November when the preferred location of the export terminal was announced. Nutrien currently has a global market share of 19 per cent to 20 per cent, according to report from Scotiabank.
The largest mining company in the world – BHP – is building a $14-billion potash mine around 140 kilometres east of Saskatoon. Phase one will come online in mid-2027 and, when the second phase is complete in 2031, the site will produce 8.5 million tonnes of potash annually, supplying potentially 10 per cent of the world’s demand.
Nutrien continues to deliver on its cash flow strategy launched in mid-2024, Mr. Seitz said. In 2025 the company cut capital expenditures by US$20-billion and has closed 50 retail locations, laid off 400 employees and in November put its US$2.4-billion phosphate division up for review. The company’s Nitrogen operations in Trinidad are also shuttered owing to a gas shortage and restrictions at the port, and Nutrien is continuing to assess its Brazilian retail operations.
On Wednesday, the company has also launched a quarterly dividend of 55 US cents per share, and announced a share repurchase of up to 5 per cent of Nutrien’s issued and outstanding common shares over a 12-month period.