The fragmentation of the UK’s party politics should no longer be treated as an aberration; it is rapidly becoming an embedded feature of our democracy, at all levels of government and across our legislatures. So, while the media is full of analysis of the short-term implications of the Green Party’s victory in Gorton and Denton for Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party, the more important questions the by-election highlights are for the future of our democratic system.
First-past-the-post is creaking at the seams
At the broadest level, the by-election is a reminder of a key but forgotten lesson from the 2024 election: if tactical voting has become the rule rather than the exception, then we need to seriously consider whether our electoral system is fit for purpose.
Widespread discussions – in party political campaign literature, across the media and on websites set up for the purpose – of how voters in Gorton and Denton should cast their votes not simply for the candidate they wanted but to prevent an outcome they didn’t show that the first-past-the-post system is creaking at the seams. Voters have always voted tactically in by-elections, but the fragmentation of the UK’s party politics combined with our majoritarian ‘winner takes all’ system means that it is increasingly difficult for voters to anticipate the outcome of different electoral choices.
To date, our traditionally bi-partisan system has weighed the benefits of first-past-the-post positively against its known flaws – with Labour and the Conservatives uniting to preserve a system which has benefitted them historically. But if casting a vote starts to feel more like participating in a lottery than making a positive and principled decision, then voters are going to become ever more frustrated. This is dangerous. At the very least it will drive down turnout and engagement, at the worst it will undermine the legitimacy of the future governments it delivers.
The House of Commons continues to operate as if we have a two-party system
The victory of the Green Party – bringing its total number of MPs to five – is also a reminder of the fragmented nature of the Labour Party’s parliamentary opposition. This fragmentation increased dramatically at the 2024 election, at which voters elected eight opposition parties with four or more MPs (including Sinn Féin). And it has increased even further since as divisions have emerged in Reform UK and the number of independents has risen to 13.
And despite the success of the Liberal Democrats in 2024 meaning that the crown of Official Opposition is less unequivocally the right of the diminished Conservative Party to wear, the House of Commons continues to operate as if we are still living in a two-party system. Allocations of parliamentary time, roles (such as committee chairs and members), the quantum of short money and opportunities for participation and challenge in the Commons (such as opening and closing debates and asking questions at PMQs) look ever more inequitable against party representation.
Maintaining the parliamentary status quo may suit Labour – with its large majority and the near-total control of the parliamentary agenda that our Westminster system gifts to the governing party – and the Conservative Party, holding on to the disproportionate advantages of being the Official Opposition. But this is dangerously short sighted.
Again, there is a risk of disillusionment: like many who elected ‘minor party’ MPs in 2024, those who voted Green in Gorton and Denton will not understand why they so rarely see their new MP or her party visibly participating in parliament. Such low prominence may be unsurprising for a party with five MPs, but for the Liberal Democrats – with 72 – it is a source of legitimate grievance.
Westminster is dangerously underprepared for a multi-party future
But, more importantly, the procedures and structures of our Westminster parliament are dangerously unprepared for the possibility of a future general election that delivers a minority government, a multi-party coalition or even a parliament that is more or less evenly split four or five ways. The ability of such a parliament to fulfil its constitutional role of scrutinising the executive could be dangerously compromised in precisely the circumstances when this might be most important, limiting the participation of large numbers of opposition MPs from parties from significant blocs of seats. Meanwhile, the membership of the Lords – reflecting as it does a history of appointments made almost exclusively by Labour and the Conservatives – might include no, or very low numbers of peers appointed by a party or parties entering government creating a new source of constitutional friction.
The UK’s devolved legislatures were designed not just for the possibility but the probability of no single party exercising overall control, and Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have experimented over the past two decades with various forms of multi-party government. But too many people in Westminster continue to consider such circumstances an unwelcome aberration rather than – in a context of increasingly polarised politics and smaller voter coalitions – an increasingly likely possibility which increases the imperative to review and adapt parliamentary procedures, conventions and privileges.
All parties will be examining the implications of the Green Party’s victory in Gorton and Denton for their future electoral prospects and perhaps those of their leaders. But responsible and farsighted leadership would mean recognising this byelection as a warning – an urgent signal of the need to prepare UK democracy for a multi-party future.