The war between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other, along with the opening of the Lebanese front last week, has brought back the threat of drones to the Israeli home front as well as to IDF bases and facilities.
Unlike previous rounds of fighting, Israel is currently pursuing a policy of ambiguity regarding the types of weapons used against it on the various fronts, the scale of their use, the methods used to intercept them, and the success rate of those interceptions. The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit is not updating the public about the number of launches toward Israel or the interception rates of missiles, rockets, and UAVs. The aim is to make it more difficult for the enemy to assess the inventory of interceptor missiles available to Israel.
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Arrow 3 in action.
(Photo: Ministry of Defense)
Unlike previous combat events, the IDF now has at its disposal the innovative air defense system based on a high-power laser, known as Iron Beam, which was delivered to the military more than two months ago. Developed by Rafael, the system is designed to intercept drones and rockets at ranges of up to ten kilometers at a minimal cost compared with the tens of thousands of shekels required for each interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome system.
However, as of this weekend, Calcalist has learned that the laser system has not yet been used operationally and has not intercepted any threats directed at Israel. Amid the fog of war surrounding interception policies within the defense establishment, officials have not explained the reasons for this, nor have they disclosed in which sectors the system is deployed or whether it is fully operational for intercepting aerial threats.
According to data from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), since the beginning of the war last Saturday Iran has launched about 600 ballistic missiles and more than 1,500 drones at 12 countries in the Middle East, most of them targeting the United Arab Emirates.
Israel says that, unlike its situation at the outbreak of the October 7 war, its air defense system has significantly improved its capabilities for dealing with drone threats. These improvements were already reflected in the previous confrontation with Iran about eight months ago, during which 99% of drone threats were intercepted using a combination of kinetic and electronic tools.
Israeli and American airstrikes on Iran are continuing, while Iran is mainly threatening to use advanced ballistic missiles, including the Khorramshahr-4 missile, which can carry a warhead weighing about one ton of explosives.
According to Iran, it launched such missiles at Ben Gurion Airport last week. Despite these threats, Israel’s air defense systems, centered on the Arrow-3 interceptors developed by Israel Aerospace Industries, are capable of intercepting such missiles, similar to other ballistic threats.
Analysis of launches from Iran over the past week has not revealed the use of weapons types that were not seen in previous confrontations. As far as is known, no maneuvering missiles designed specifically to challenge Israeli air defense systems have been used.
Similar to previous confrontations, Iran has occasionally launched missiles carrying cluster warheads toward Israel. Their use does not represent a technological breakthrough.
“We have very good successes in the field of air defense,” Pini Yungman, president of TSG, controlled by Israel Aerospace Industries and the Formula Group, and former head of Rafael’s air defense division, told Calcalist. “All the systems are operating on time and doing a fantastic job.”
One of the key questions surrounding the current war in the Middle East concerns the stock of interceptor missiles held by Israel and the United States in the face of ongoing ballistic missile launches from Iran.
According to Yungman, “the production rate of interceptors in Israel and the United States is higher than it was a year or two ago, and it is satisfactory.”
He added that the increased production is taking place in both Israeli and American defense industries and at a faster rate than Iran’s missile production.
“All the defense systems, including the Arrow, David’s Sling, THAAD, and Iron Dome, must be viewed as one integrated network. Together, they produce far more interceptors than the number of ballistic missiles being produced by Iran at the same time. This is excellent and it provides some breathing space,” Yungman said.
Hezbollah weakened but still a threat
An analysis conducted in recent weeks by Tal Beeri and Dana Polak of the Alma Research and Education Center suggests that despite the heavy blows Hezbollah suffered from the IDF during the 2024 war and the continued Israeli attacks against it, the Shiite militant organization has recovered quickly.
A few days before the outbreak of the current fighting, Alma estimated that “the pace of Hezbollah’s military reconstruction is exceeding the scope of the IDF’s counter-terrorism activities.”
According to Alma’s assessment, Hezbollah’s arsenal currently includes about 25,000 missiles and rockets, most of them short- and medium-range. The organization is capable of launching dozens of rockets and missiles per day, while maintaining a smaller stockpile, several hundred, of advanced missiles.
These include cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles capable of threatening Israel’s strategic assets in the Mediterranean, including offshore natural gas platforms.
Hezbollah is also estimated to possess about 1,000 suicide drones, while the total number of drones in its arsenal remains unknown.
“The smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah continues, with an emphasis on maritime routes alongside ongoing land smuggling through Syria,” Tal Beeri told Calcalist.
Data from Alma also indicates that Hezbollah maintains a fighting force of more than 40,000 regular fighters, along with tens of thousands of reservists.
The organization’s reconstruction efforts also include the re-establishment of the Radwan Force, Hezbollah’s elite unit. The force currently numbers about 5,000 operatives, including roughly 3,000 fighters trained in anti-tank missile operations, sniping, and infiltration tactics, preparing for potential attempts to infiltrate Israel by land or sea.