GDB 64.0: Oilers roll into Vegas for a crucual divisional matchup (7:30pm MT, SNW)

The Edmonton Oilers roll into Las Vegas on Sunday for Game 64 of the season, and there’s no point pretending this one doesn’t matter. Friday’s 6–3 loss to Carolina was another frustrating reminder that this team still hasn’t figured out how to play hockey the right way, and with the calendar pushing deeper into March, the runway to fix these problems is getting shorter. The good news? Today is a new day. The Oilers roll into this divisional matchup against a Golden Knights team that’s spinning its wheels just as badly. Both clubs have gone 4-6-0 over their last 10 games, both are trying to find traction, and both would love to be on the right side of this four-point swing game.Looking at the numbers, the matchup is about as close as it gets. Edmonton has the slight edge on the offensive side, scoring 3.54 goals per game compared to Vegas’ 3.29, and the Oilers’ power play continues to be a nuclear deterrent at 33.1 percent. But as we’ve all learned way too many times this season, the tricky part for the Oilers isn’t the scoring. It’s keeping the puck out of their own net. Edmonton is allowing 3.43 goals per game and carrying a team save percentage of .886 at 5v5, which means that even on nights when the offence shows up, there’s always a chance that the rug gets pulled. Vegas isn’t exactly a defensive fortress either, but they’ve been slightly more dialled in at 3.19 goals against per game, while also boasting a stronger penalty kill at 81.3 percent.

At five-on-five, the numbers suggest that this thing could be a coin flip or simply go to the team that makes the fewest mistakes. Both teams sit just over 50 percent in Corsi, both hover around the same PDO range, and both generate chances at a similar rate at even strength. In other words, this is exactly the kind of divisional game where small details make the difference. One missed assignment, one bad change, one odd-man rush, and suddenly the whole night flips. Against a veteran team like Vegas that’s perfectly happy to wait for mistakes, the Oilers need to get their details clean or they will get punished for poor execution. And execution, as always, is really what this game comes down to for the Oilers.

The frustrating part is that we know the boys can score. With 223 goals already on the season and a power play that can wreck a game in a hurry, offence is rarely the issue. What this team hasn’t consistently shown is the ability to tighten things up when the puck turns the other way. The Oilers are a mess in their own end, and I’d be pressed to find many folks who think things are getting better. The Pacific Division is so bad that the Oilers still have a chance to catch and win the division. If the Oilers want any chance of making that happen down the stretch, there’s no room for complacency. No chaos, no yard sale, no floating dumpster fire, just smart hockey and an understanding that divisional points are gold this time of year.There are still more than enough games left on the schedule to make some noise, but the margin for error is shrinking by the day. The Oilers have a pile of divisional matchups coming down the stretch, and if they want to shake off a rough first 3/4 of the season and start climbing the standings, it has to start with banking points in games exactly like this one. Sunday night in Vegas won’t decide the season. But if the Oilers are serious about actually climbing the mountain in front of them, this is the kind of game that can start a run. Yet, as we’ve seen all season long, the hard part is proving they can do it.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS

GOLDEN KNIGHTS

RECORD

30-25-8

29-20-14

WIN/LOSS STREAK

L1

L1

LAST 10 GAMES

4-6-0

4-6-0

GOALS FOR

223

207

GOALS AGAINST

216

201

POWER PLAY%

33.1

26.1

PENALTY KILL%

77.1

81.3

GOALS FOR/GAME

3.54

3.29

GOALS AGAINST/GAME

3.43

3.19

AVG. SHOTS/FOR

29.9

28.6

AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST

27.1

24.9

TEAM SAVE%

.886

.884

CORSI FOR%

50.53

51.01

PDO

0.979

0.981

TEAM SHOOTING%

9.23

9.65

EXPECTED GOALS FOR%

51.41

52.55

You can watch the game on Sportsnet starting at 7:30 pm MST or listen on the radio like your dad did over on 880 CHED. 

LINEUPS…Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Roslovic
Savoie – Dickinson – Kapanen
Dach – Henrique – Frederic

Stastney – Bouchard
Walman – Murphy
Nurse – Emberson

Ingram

The reality is that it doesn’t matter at all what the Oilers’ line combinations look like if they execute as poorly as they did against Carolina. I know Vegas isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire either, but they still have plenty of firepower that can ruin your night if the boys play as loose and sloppy as they did on Friday. It’s honestly insane that we’re still having these conversations ahead of Game 64 of the regular season, but here we are, teetering on opportunity and disaster at the same time. Either the Oilers can pull themselves out of this tailspin, or their season is destined for a crash landing.

According to Bob Stauffer, Mattias Ekholm was not on the ice for the morning skate, which is obviously not ideal. It also looks like Connor Ingram gets the start, as Kris Knoblauch looks for either goalie to lock down the starter’s job.

Golden Knights

Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman
Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev
Saad – Hertl – Kolesar
Smith – Dowd – Sissons

McNabb – Theodore
Hanifin – Korczak
Lauzon – Andersson

Hill

I can’t even enjoy that the Golden Knights are also in their own mini-tailspin. We should be allowed to sit back and enjoy their struggles, but instead, we’re so focused on what’s happening in our own backyard that we don’t have the capacity to enjoy the train wreck on the other side of the fence. Either way, Vegas shouldn’t be taken lightly just because they’re also 4-6-0 in their last 10 games. It would be wise for Edmonton to lock in those details because the Golden Knights have some fantastic players that will absolutely extend our losing streak if given the opportunity.

TONIGHT…GDB Edmonton Oilers Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Bouchard, Hyman photoshop

GDB Edmonton Oilers Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Bouchard, Hyman photoshop by Tom Kostiuk

Game Day Prediction: It’s been a while, and I feel it in my plums. 4-2 Oilers.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: We get no fewer than 5 mentions of the Olympic bromance between Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini. They followed each other on Instagram. It’s a whole thing.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: No one will see goals from Ty Emberson in consecutive games coming. You will know because I know. I am channelling my inner Gregor-witch demons.

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