Published: 12 March 2026
Last updated: 12 March 2026
On the first day of the US-Israeli war against Iran, with the assassination of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the collapse of the Iranian regime seemed to Israel to be an attainable goal.
With some encouragement and a lot of firepower, the crowds would turn out and topple their oppressors, it was hoped.
A week and a half later, no protests against the regime have surfaced despite parts of Iran being pulverised. What has actually collapsed, instead, is the idea that the regime will collapse during this war. At the same time, doubts are emerging over whether Israel will be able to claim victory in the face of the regime’s survival.
The Netanyahu coalition’s leaders are lowering expectations. “There is no one in Israel who doesn’t want a change of regime,” Culture Minister Miki Zohar told the Kan public broadcaster on Tuesday. “It’s everyone’s aspiration. But it depends on the Iranian people. The ground will be more fertile the minute they can take their fate into their hands. Whether they succeed, we will have to see.”
Meanwhile, the notion that the war will permanently disable Iran’s military and missile capabilities is also in question, especially given the fact that Donald Trump can halt the war at any time he sees fit. Indeed, some analysts are now openly saying that additional wars with Iran will be necessary to suppress a threat of Iran rebuilding its capabilities.
That is bad news for an Israeli public enduring fear, dislocation and disruption from Iranian missile attacks, which continued last night.
Zohar now outlines Israel’s goal as the near-complete degradation of Iranian military capabilities. “It could be that the war will end when the regime is equipped only with Kalashnikov rifles, not missiles or drones. We are very close to that point,” he said.