Tel Aviv
—
In early January, Israel was quietly finalizing plans for a wide-scale operation along its northern border. More than a year had passed since a US-brokered ceasefire nominally ended months of open conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that had culminated in a ground invasion of southern Lebanon by Israeli forces.
The Lebanese government, which had committed to disarming the Iran-backed militant group in the November 2024 deal, was failing to deliver, Israeli officials told CNN. It was time, they felt, to launch another operation to end Hezbollah’s ability to rain rockets down on Israeli communities for good.
Eight days into the new year, Israel’s calculus changed dramatically. Massive anti-regime protests swept across Iran, and suddenly it was Hezbollah’s principal backer that found itself shaken. Dealing with Iran became the overriding priority for Israeli military planners, especially because it required close coordination with the United States on what would become a major joint operation.
But the plans for a renewed assault against Hezbollah remained ready.
On March 2, less than 48 hours after Israel and the United States launched coordinated strikes on Iran, Hezbollah fired six rockets into northern Israel, granting Israel the opening it was waiting for.
On March 2, less than 48 hours after Israel and the United States launched coordinated strikes on Iran, Hezbollah fired six rockets into northern Israel, granting Israel the opening it was waiting for.
“Hezbollah fell into a strategic ambush,” said the chief of Israel’s Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo, last week, calling the militant group’s attack on Israel – a response to Israeli airstrikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – a “serious mistake.” He vowed strikes would continue until Hezbollah took a “serious blow.”
Israel has unleashed successive waves of strikes across Lebanon, saying it is targeting senior Hezbollah operatives, command infrastructure, weapons depots, missile launchers and military training facilities.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has issued dozens of evacuation warnings, displacing hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians northward past the Litani River. Lebanon’s health ministry said on Wednesday that more than 680 people had been killed.
Israel had already established a military foothold in southern Lebanon following the November 2024 ceasefire, seizing five strategic points. In recent days its forces have advanced more than one kilometer deeper into Lebanese territory, calling the push a “forward defense” buffer zone.
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun has condemned Israel’s advance, accusing the country of showing “no respect for the laws of war, nor for international laws.” At the same time, he has accused Hezbollah of betraying the country and banned its military activities.
Hezbollah was once considered one of the most powerful non-state actors in the world, fueled by $1 billion a year from Iran for two decades, according to a former senior military official. Israel has decapitated the Iranian proxy’s leadership and targeted its vast missile array. But Hezbollah has still been able to fire back, launching hundreds of rockets and drones into Israel, often coinciding with barrages of Iranian ballistic missiles. On Wednesday evening, Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets in a single barrage.
It has also mounted direct assaults on IDF positions, and its elite Radwan forces have attempted raids on northern Israel, sources in Israel told CNN. Two Israeli soldiers have been killed and at least 14 wounded in southern Lebanon, according to the IDF.
Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah during the 13-month conflict that began after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel – a war Hezbollah joined the following day by opening a second front from Lebanon.
But by the time of the 2024 ceasefire, the IDF estimated that Hezbollah retained as much as a third of its pre-war missile stockpile. “Whether it is 30% or 10%, that is still enough to pose a serious threat to civilians in the north,” an Israeli military official told CNN.
During the initial ceasefire arrangements, the military official said, Hezbollah moved the bulk of its forces and assets north of the Litani River, but it still retains capabilities in southern Lebanon – in both personnel and weaponry. That includes precision weapons capable of striking targets within an 8-10 kilometer (5-6 mile) range and anti-tank missiles, as well as an active drone program, an Israeli source with knowledge of strategic assessments told CNN.
Since the 2024 ceasefire, Israel has conducted near-daily strikes against Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure throughout southern Lebanon, accusing them of attempting to rearm and rebuild. In recent months, Israel’s leadership has concluded that Hezbollah’s military rehabilitation is progressing faster than the IDF’s disruption efforts, according to two Israeli sources. IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has framed the Lebanon campaign as an “opportunity.”
“Israel wants to finish the job in Lebanon,” a senior Israeli official told CNN.
Israel’s position is that Lebanon’s government – and armed forces – lack the capability to confront Hezbollah. When the Lebanese army announced in January 2025 that it had achieved operational control south of the Litani River, Israel dismissed it as “far from sufficient.”
Days after declaring that Hezbollah’s military activity was illegal, the Lebanese president said Hezbollah was working “for the sake of the calculations of the Iranian regime.” He called for direct negotiations with Israel to achieve a “final cessation of hostilities.”
But Israeli officials see little prospect for a durable arrangement without significant military pressure.
Assaf Orion, a retired brigadier general and international fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “The Lebanese government has called for negotiations, but Israel deems the current conditions unacceptable, and the present government in Jerusalem will probably not agree to end the conflict without a significant military achievement.” Orion says Hezbollah is reviving its narrative of resistance as the Lebanese government advocates for diplomacy.
“One must remember who holds the guns,” Orion told CNN.
Israel’s widening campaign against Hezbollah has two declared objectives: to weaken and degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and to strengthen Israel’s northern border.
Israeli sources say the campaign in Lebanon reflects a wider recalibration of the Israeli strategic doctrine since October 2023: Israel believes it needs to establish a strong military defense to protect civilians from the Iranian proxy on its borders. In October 2023, Israel was forced to evacuate more than 60,000 residents from near the border, a step the country vows it will not have to take again. The buffer zones Israel has created or expanded – drawing new lines in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria – reflect that logic.
This security approach aligns with the expansionist ambitions of Israel’s far right governing coalition. Likud lawmaker Amit Halevi said last week that the Litani River, some six miles into southern Lebanon, “must become the north’s new Yellow Line,” referring to the line to which Israel withdrew in Gaza. Israeli military officials publicly maintain that current operations are limited and targeted, but political pressure to expand the buffer zone longer term is real.
Israel believes Hezbollah is at one of its weakest points ever, with its Iranian money and arms pipeline significantly disrupted and many Lebanese no longer viewing it as their defender. “Faced with the window of opportunity created when Hezbollah chose to open a war, we have to use this moment to finish what we did not complete back then,” an Israeli military official said.
For the moment, Iran remains Israel’s top priority. But when conflict on that front concludes – possibly at the determination of US President Donald Trump – Israel is likely to fully shift its attention to Lebanon, Orion said. Israel’s air force, currently tied up with Iran, would be free to cover a ground operation against Hezbollah,” Orion assessed.
“The Iranian theater won’t remain open indefinitely and Israel can manage several more weeks of limited engagement with Hezbollah before shifting to a full offensive,” he said.