10 thoughts after a refreshingly entertaining game/win over the Anaheim Ducks for the Maple Leafs, albeit with significant concerns about Auston Matthews’ injury situation:
Regarding the post-game answers from Morgan Rielly taking “full responsibility” for the lack of response in the immediate aftermath of the Radko Gudas knee on Matthews — I’ll give Rielly this, at least: He has at least responded in some of those moments over the years. It’s been a team-wide issue at various points, and I don’t want to only scapegoat certain individuals. But the player I’m probably most disappointed in here, and who was also on the ice for the hit tonight, is Brandon Carlo, who may need a reminder that he is 6’5. He’s been on the ice for multiple incidents this season when the team should’ve had an immediate response, including Anthony Stolarz getting absolutely run over by Mason Marchment, and he was nowhere to be found. It was a nice pass on the shorthanded goal for Bo Groulx, but he’s having a pretty tough season, and this would seemingly be an easy way to step up for the team.
It was such a conflicted feeling watching the Leafs’ third-period response. On the one hand, in a vacuum, that’s what everyone wants from this group, as a culture and a standard: a proper “team toughness” response, where it doesn’t matter if you’re a fighter like Michael Pezzetta or a kid like Easton Cowan or a star player like William Nylander, you push back and push back hard. The question, of course, is why the hell did it take losing eight games and seeing the captain’s knee (potentially) destroyed for the team to actually show the emotion and desperation on display there? You’re obviously not going to play every period like you’re out to avenge your captain after a filthy hit, but this team laid down coming out of the Olympic break in spectacularly disappointing fashion and barely showed a pulse until it reached tonight’s boiling point of, “So we’re a team that loses eight in a row and misses the playoffs; are we also a team that lets its captain/franchise player get demolished, without a peep in response?”
Radko Gudas already has six and 10-game suspensions to his name. The seven-game suspension Matt Cooke received (in the playoffs) for a pretty similar knee on Tyson Barrie a decade or so ago stands out as the absolute bare minimum here, but we’ll see if Gudas gets the he-did-it-to-a-Leaf leniency from George Parros.
Gudas knee-on-knee collision on Matthews
🔊 @Bonsie1951 @Jim_Ralph pic.twitter.com/XNlBFpSJ0P
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) March 13, 2026
With a four-point game, Matthew Knies is closing in on his career high in points (58), as he’s now up to 55 in 63. He’s pretty likely to finish second on the team in scoring behind William Nylander. He won’t touch his 29 goals from last season, but he’s had a big uptick in assists (three tonight, and the goal was EN). He’s got a good chance at hitting 45 helpers this year. On paper, that’s what you were hoping to see production-wise from him as he starts his new contract.
But it’s also been a strange season, with the nagging injury and the general sense he’s had more to give for significant portions of the year — particularly on the physical side of the game. Multi-point efforts have really helped his numbers, as Knies now has 16 of them in 62 games (12 in 78 last year). He’s also a -18, third worst on the team behind Tavares and Domi.
It’s been a difficult season to evaluate overall. In addition to him seemingly losing half a step compared to last year (maybe the offseason weight added, maybe the injury, maybe a bit of both), the number of goals scored in tight to the net is down significantly (22 last year, 11 so far this year). It’s easy to suggest the ‘power forward’ needs to get his jersey dirtier and bang in a few more ugly ones, and there is some truth in that, but there is a lot of circumstances to consider here, too: Marner’s departure (he assisted on 16 of Knies’ 29 goals last season), Matthews’ down year, and the Leafs’ general lack of structure and offensive-zone possession time.
23 years old and just over 200 games played is still really young, and I’d imagine a big part of his offseason will be about staying healthy and navigating his optimal playing weight. I’d also suggest fully embracing his role as a physical leader/tone-setter — someone who elevates and takes charge on nights like this one, for example — on a team that really needs leadership in that department is a big part of the next steps in his evolution.
John Tavares (1g,1a on the PP tonight) is having a very respectable season of production with 54 points in 66 games — nice bang for the buck on the new contract, offensively — but he is a minus-25 at even strength, top-five worst mark among forwards in the league. It’s not all on him, clearly, as there are systemic issues at play, and his .877 on-ice save percentage is the worst of his career by a fair margin. But the struggles to drive play and control the middle of the ice at this stage in his career are plainly evident, too.
The Leafs have now dealt away Laughton and Roy, and Tavares shouldn’t play full–time top-six minutes as a C. He could play wing in the top six or center a more sheltered third line while offering PP specialty, but he shouldn’t be a 2C full-time. With a thin FA crop and limited trade assets, I have no idea what the plan is here for next year, though, and how the Leafs could move away from it soon.
Speaking of Cs for next year, Bo Groulx, eh? We’ll keep observing for the rest of the season before getting too far ahead of ourselves here, but solid shot, size, feet, intelligence, work ethic away from the puck, and he’s looking capable at center so far. He’s signed through next season at just $812k. Groulx played nearly 15 minutes in Montreal and nearly 18 minutes so far (injury and penalty circumstances drove those minutes up tonight, but he didn’t look over his head at all.)
I know every tank enthusiast will be bent out of shape about two points in the standings, but an NHL franchise also can’t just punt away 20 straight games where they don’t even try to inject new blood/life via call-ups, line/lineup changes, and generally try new things/learn stuff for the future. When someone like Groulx acquits himself well and scores a shorthanded goal — which stood up as the game-winner, in the end — that’s a good thing.
Groulx and Jacob Quillan were obvious call-ups, and Michael Pezzetta made sense as a shot in the arm — and should’ve played more than four minutes. But they now need to use one of their remaining call-ups on a defenseman. We’re at least learning something about the centers in the organization right now. The defense unit also needs serious work this offseason. We’ve learned all we need to know about Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers at this point (by the way, as a pairing, they’ve now conceded nine five-on-five goals in just 130 minutes together, after two more tonight in just 6:33). Henry Thrun and William Villeneuve are both RFAs at season’s end. They might not be/probably aren’t solutions, but the team needs more capable puck movers back there.
Prorate it for 82, and Matias Maccelli (1g,2a) is on pace for 20 goals and 47 points. It looked like a lost cause at points with the healthy scratches, but you’d have taken that production pace, no questions asked, if offered it before the season. He’s a crafty playmaker as advertised, but his shot is underrated. The two problems, when contemplating a future in Toronto: he’s arb-eligible and has a $4+ million qualifying offer, and the Leafs have too many undersized, relatively limited/one-dimensional wingers on the team. Domi, Maccelli, Robertson, and Cowan can’t be four of the eight wingers, and Cowan is rightfully staying put.
The QO — or rather, maybe you could get Maccelli signed for less with some term on the deal — isn’t necessarily a deal breaker with the Leafs’ ample cap space. You can probably also justify keeping one more member of the aforementioned group, in addition to Cowan. There is a real argument for Maccelli over Domi and Robertson. Of course, the issue with Domi is that the Leafs didn’t hear a word of interest in him at the trade deadline, and he’s signed for two more years. For an organization that needs more draft picks, not fewer, you’d hate to throw away an asset to dump the player/contract. Perhaps there is a way to move the contract for a nothing return if the Leafs offer some retention. A buyout would only save them $1 million on the cap for two years, followed by two years of a 500k penalty. Burying him in the minors saves them more on the cap than the buyout and avoids the penalty, but would they ever go there? The term they handed Domi never made sense at the time, and the chickens are coming home to roost now, but they need to find a way to move on, either through creativity or ruthlessness.
Much respect to Easton Cowan for jumping in as he did on Jackson Lacombe. Not sure Cowan has won a strength battle on the wall against an NHLer all season, but he jumped in with enthusiasm. Worth noting: Cowan fought six times in junior. In the NHL, he’s now tied the former Core Four’s career total combined.
“HEY, COWBOY UP!”
COWAN VS LACOMBE FIGHT
🔊 @Bonsie1951 @Jim_Ralph pic.twitter.com/eIbqcS5P1J
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) March 13, 2026
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Game Highlights: Maple Leafs 6 vs. Ducks 4