The silver lining is that with each energy price shock, we have become less reliant on oil and gas and more efficient in our overall energy use. So we’ve become less vulnerable to spikes.
But the fallout could still be very damaging. The extent depends on if and how much further energy prices go up.
If this conflict is sustained, economists are muttering about growth being perhaps just half of the 1.1% the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted for this year – or even less.
Those at Oxford Economics suggest that if oil prices were to soar to $140 and remain there for a couple of months, the UK economy would risk shrinking.
The longer the conflict goes on, the greater the concerns, the more the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will be under pressure to deliver a support package.
But she’ll be wary: we’ve yet to pay off the higher debt incurred from the emergency help given during Covid and the last energy crisis. And as yet, the overall scale of increases in energy prices are not near crisis levels.
As Reeves has acknowledged, a swift de-escalation of hostilities would be the easiest (and cheapest) solution. Making us feel less nervy about the future would be the fastest way to get us back on track in the short run.