There are some signs the US is taking steps to keep its military options open. Last Friday, US media reported that the president had ordered a Marine amphibious unit, which includes 5,000 soldiers and sailors, from Japan to the Middle East.
If Trump chooses to act, it could put US forces in greater danger due to their proximity to Iran.
If he doesn’t act – if he instead announces the US has achieved its objective of significantly degrading Iran’s military power and wraps up the American military campaign – Iran could continue to pose a threat to shipping and the price of oil could remain stubbornly high.
In the second scenario, the US may have spent tens of billions of dollars without conclusively altering the Middle East balance of power.
According to Clifford Young, chair of public affairs and strategic insights at polling company Ipsos, an extended surge in energy prices would pose a very real political threat to a president who is already on shaky ground with the American public.
For the moment, he said, polls indicate that Trump’s core supporters continue to stick with him even as they have some doubts about the Iran operation and other core issues, like immigration and tariffs. The erosion of his support has come at the margins, among centrist Republican and independent voters.
While the president’s popularity, with approval ratings in the low 40% range, should be a concern for Republicans, there’s little sign yet that the Iran war is dragging him down significantly.
That could all change, however, if the war affects the issues that Americans tell pollsters they care about the most – the cost of living and affordability.
Prices, particularly for housing, groceries and consumer goods, continue to remain high even as the overall inflation rate has dropped over the first year of Trump’s presidency.
At the very least, the war in Iran distracts Trump and his administration from efforts to convince the American public that the president is addressing their economic concerns. And if the cost of gas at the pump – until recently a source of pride for Trump – stays high, it could have dire consequences for his political standing.
The current average cost of a gallon of petrol in the US, according to the American Automobile Association, is $3.72 – a dramatic increase from the $2.94 average price a month ago.
“It just blows up everything,” Young said. “The affordability agenda gets torpedoed from the Republican point of view.”