The Scout analyses the best armband options for this weekend’s reduced round of matches

Harry Wilson (£6.0m) has the home form and fixture to rival Bruno Fernandes (£10.2m) and Joao Pedro (£7.8m) for the captaincy in Blank Gameweek 31 (BGW31) of Fantasy Premier League.

Both Manchester United‘s Fernandes and Chelsea‘s Joao Pedro were among four players to be captained by over one million managers in Gameweek 30, along with Manchester City‘s Erling Haaland (£14.5m) and Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike (£9.2m).

Haaland is, of course, without a match this weekend due to Man City’s EFL Cup final against Arsenal.

The appeal of captaining Ekitike, meanwhile, has dropped markedly after he was benched in the previous Gameweek. The Frenchman has now blanked in eight of his last 10 matches ahead of Liverpool’s visit to Brighton & Hove Albion.

 

Which BGW31 players have been involved in the most big chances recently?

Joao Pedro and Fernandes’ mid-term form since their clubs appointed new coaches in Gameweek 22 could barely be more convincing.

Indeed, they are the two top-scoring players in Fantasy across those nine matches. 

Joao Pedro has scored eight goals and assisted six more to collect 78 points, while Fernandes’ two goals and eight assists have earned him 70 points.

And a delve into the underlying data shows their numbers fare well over the last four Gameweeks, too.

Joao Pedro’s total of eight big chances, which are situations where a player is expected to score, is at least three more than any other player with a match in BGW31.

 

Although Fernandes has had just one big chance, he’s created six more of them. This means he was involved in seven big chances, just behind the eight of his Chelsea rival.

Brentford‘s Igor Thiago (£7.3m) and Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) are the other standouts in the table below, with both involved in six big chances ahead of the Bees’ trip to Leeds United.

Thiago ranks second only to Joao Pedro for big chances and shots in the box, with Ouattara’s five big chances created (BCC) just behind Fernandes.

Elsewhere, Wilson, Florian Wirtz (£8.3m), Bryan Mbeumo (£8.6m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) are also among those with at least four big-chance involvements across their last four league appearances.

Attacking stats, last four matches

Player
Big-chance inv.
Big chances
BCC*
Shots in box

Joao Pedro
8
8
0
13

Fernandes
7
1
6
1

Thiago
6
5
1
9

Ouattara
6
1
5
3

Flemming
4
4
0
7

Damsgaard
4
3
1
5

Tavernier
4
2
2
8

Wirtz
4
2
2
6

Mbeumo
4
2
2
4

Wilson
4
1
3
5

Bowen
4
0
4
3

*BCC = Big chances created. Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

Who’s facing the most out-of-form defence?

Burnley’s defensive numbers certainly look encouraging for Wilson’s prospects. The Clarets have conceded 13 big chances over their last four matches, more than double the six of Joao Pedro’s opponents, Everton.

Although Fernandes’ hosts Bournemouth have conceded just one goal and kept three clean sheets across the same period, they have clearly been somewhat fortuitous, having allowed their opponents nine big chances.

Villa’s numbers also show why Bowen can enjoy a successful weekend, with Unai Emery’s side conceding 10 goals and 12 big chances across their last four matches.

Team defensive stats, last four matches

Club
Goals conc.
Clean sheets
Big chances conc.

Spurs
10
0
13

Burnley
7
1
13

Aston Villa
10
0
12

Bournemouth
1
3
9

Everton
5
1
6

Leeds
3
1
6

Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

What about home and away form?

An assessment of the seasonal home and away data highlights Wilson, Joao Pedro, Fernandes and Bowen as the standout performers. 

Wilson is the joint-sixth top-scoring player in home matches this season, with his total of 82 points equal to Thiago and Arsenal’s Gabriel (£7.2m).

Meanwhile, in away matches, Joao Pedro is the fourth top-scoring player thanks to a total of 89 points, while Fernandes and Bowen are sixth and seventh, with 75 and 74 points respectively. 

A look at the table below shows that Wilson has averaged 6.2 points per match across his 13 starts at Craven Cottage and has blanked in only five of them.

Notably, he has upped that output over his last four home matches, earning 33 points at an average of 8.3 points per start.

And that certainly enhances the Welshman’s armband appeal when you compare him with Fernandes’ away form under Carrick.

Notably, the Portuguese has amassed 53 of his 70 points for the caretaker boss in home matches, with just two assists and 17 points over his four road trips since Carrick took charge.

Watch: FPL experts on who they’re captaining

Meanwhile, Joao Pedro has been far more consistent in terms of match location, with 37 points earned from home matches and 41 from away matches.

That disparity is highlighted in the table below, with Joao Pedro’s average of 10.3 points per start (pps) in his four away matches for Liam Rosenior more than twice the 4.3pps of Fernandes under Carrick on the road.

Bowen is the most reliable and least explosive of the quartet. He’s blanked in only five of his 15 away matches, albeit without a single double-figure haul to his name.

Home/away form compared

Player
PPS last four matches
PPS season
Double-digit hauls
Blanks/starts

Joao Pedro (A)
10.3
6.7
3
6/13

Wilson (H)
8.3
6.2
3
5/13

Bowen (A)
5.3
4.9
0
5/15

Fernandes (A)
4.3
5.4
2
6/14

Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

By assessing the team seasonal data, you can see that Everton, Villa and Bournemouth have returned a clean sheet in 33.3 per cent of their home matches, or five of 15.

In home matches, Bournemouth have allowed their opponents just 15 big chances, fewer than any other side, and more than half the totals of both Everton and Villa.

Burnley, on the other hand, have conceded 45 big chances in their 15 road trips, three times the tally of Bournemouth at home.

The Clarets are without a single clean sheet in away matches all season and have conceded two or more goals in 12 of their 15 road trips.

Team season data

Club
Clean sheets
Goals conceded
Big chances
No. of matches with 2+ goals conceded

Burnley (A)
0/15
35
45
12

Everton (H)
5/15
19
37
4

Aston Villa (H)
5/15
15
32
2

Bournemouth (H)
5/15
15
15
4

Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

So, who is the best captain?

While there’s no doubt that Fernandes and Joao Pedro are the form players right now, the team data does indicate that their respective opponents Bournemouth and Everton are far more likely to offer stubborn resistance than Burnley this weekend.

Certainly, within the context of a BGW31, it’s understandable if you’d rather play it safe and back one of the above two due to their high ownerships. In that case, Joao Pedro’s far superior goal threat, allied with his output on the road, looks to give him the edge.

But based on the statistics alone, a home match against Burnley is about as good as it gets for any attacker right now, and Wilson’s seasonal and recent output suggests the Welshman – who produced his season-high haul of 16 points against the Clarets in the Gameweek 16 – can outscore those two premium heavy-hitters.