SEATTLE — UFC is back in the Pacific Northwest for the second time in 13 months, as opposed to its previous 12-year absence. Similar to last year’s event, a former champion headlines this Saturday in an attempt to turn back a hungry, rising contender.
Israel Adesanya and Joe Pyfer have gone in opposite directions in their past three fights. A two-time former UFC middleweight champion, Adesanya has failed to find victory since being dethroned by Sean Strickland in September 2023. That loss started the slide of “The Last Stylebender,” while Philadelphia’s Pyfer has found his stride following his failed main event effort against Jack Hermansson in 2024. A Pyfer win at UFC Seattle would further shuffle the deck at 185 pounds, but Adesanya has only lost to the cream of the crop, making him a pivotal guard right now to the division’s elite.
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This weekend’s co-main event features a long-awaited rematch between two of flyweight’s best talents, as former champion Alexa Grasso once again squares off with Maycee Barber, who hasn’t lost since her 2021 defeat to Grasso. Now riding a seven-fight win streak, Barber is highly confident that another victory on Saturday will secure her first UFC title shot, though her old foe has other plans.
For a Fight Night event, Seattle gets somewhat spoiled two years in a row. Name value and quality matchmaking balances out the evening from the jump, and this one closes out with a main event that should tell us plenty about both fighters.
👑 UFC Seattle’s lineup Crown grade: B-. 👑
Betting odds via BetMGM.
Joe Pyfer has his toughest test in front of him in his second-career UFC main event.
(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters)185 pounds: Israel Adesanya (-250) vs. Joe Pyfer (+125)
From Adesanya’s lens, one fight popped into my head that draws parallels to this one. Remember his 2020 win over Paulo Costa?
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There’s something there, folks.
Don’t get me wrong — Pyfer and Costa aren’t that similar, outside of having tremendous punching power. Physically, Pyfer has appeared to be a much more imposing figure, able to chuck opponents around the Octagon like sacks of potatoes if he gets hold of them. However, against someone as technically sound and sharp as the all-time great Adesanya, we’ve seen front-foot aggressors run into serious problems. That’s what makes this fight compelling.
Adesanya suffered a stunning stoppage loss to Nassourdine Imavov in his last time out. But before that finishing sequence, he looked as good and on-point as ever. Very few steps have seemingly been lost by Adesanya, though his chin, arguably, has finally taken enough — and that was against a less powerful striker than Pyfer.
But going back to the Costa fight — it was a near-effortless masterclass from Adesanya, and as a striker, Pyfer has proven to have fewer dimensions than Costa. That could be less of a problem if he mixes in wrestling sequences, but for the most part, he’ll have to overcome Adesanya’s precise counter game and close the distance at every chance. Take some to land one. Pyfer has that nuclear option — he just needs to land it.
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In terms of quality of competition, this matchup is a comfortable step down for Adesanya and the inverse for Pyfer. Adesanya still has to avoid danger, but more often than not, he’s been well capable of doing exactly that against a much higher level than Pyfer has shown — at least so far.
Pick: Adesanya
125 pounds: Alexa Grasso (+150) vs. Maycee Barber (-185)
Part two for these former foes comes with a lot more at stake.
Grasso remains one of the cleanest boxers in the flyweight division, thriving on timing, composure and the ability to capitalize on mistakes. That’s precisely what carried her to a clean win over the young Barber in 2021 and a title run. The Mexican proved she can hang at the very top, but her recent three-fight downslide also showed the fine margins she operates within. When she’s dictating range and pace, Grasso looks sharp. When she’s forced backward, things get trickier, but Grasso’s defense is often sound, as initially highlighted in that first Barber bout.
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Barber is the opposite kind of problem. “The Future” has leaned fully into a pressure-heavy, physical style throughout her career, bullying opponents with forward movement, clinch work and steady volume. It’s not always pretty, but it is effective — and, in the past, that style has swayed judges when fights get close.
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Their first meeting showed just how competitive this matchup is. Grasso had success in the cleaner moments, but Barber’s aggression and physicality made it uncomfortable throughout. That dynamic likely doesn’t change too much here.
I will admit, seeing Barber face-to-face at UFC Seattle media day prompted some concerns. She had the look of someone visibly struggling to get through their weight cut — but that’s not exactly new for Barber. So, does it play a factor? I lean toward no based on her track record.
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If Grasso can keep this at range and maintain her rhythm, she has the tools to edge another technical fight. But if Barber turns it into a grind — backing her up, mixing in clinch work, and forcing exchanges — it starts to tilt in her favor. Overall, Barber has just tightened up her game and her approach since that first fight.
Expect a closer matchup than we saw in 2021, but one that brings redemption for Barber.
Pick: Barber
170 pounds: Michael Chiesa (-900) vs. Niko Price (+600)
OK, there’s not a lot to say about the final fight of Michael Chiesa’s career.
“The Maverick” has received quite a layup for his send-off after Carlston Harris withdrew. Although Price is a perpetually thrilling fighter, that’s become more thanks to his ability to “get got” than his proclivity to win. I mean, just a month ago he was eviscerated by Nikolay Veretennikov under two minutes. The man has nine kids to feed. Can we blame him for taking a short-notice opportunity of any kind?
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Luckily for Price, Chiesa has never knocked out a soul and has a wildly low strike count per UFC fight.
That being said, Price will take a brief nap in this one after getting easily taken down and submitted, likely in the first round. This is Chiesa’s moment for a hometown swan song. No bones about it.
Pick: Chiesa
Rarely does Julian Erosa fail to deliver in the entertainment category.
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)145 pounds: Julian Erosa (+260) vs. Lerryan Douglas (-325)
As far as the world knows, Julian Erosa is allergic to the word “boring.” The lanky veteran has made a career out of chaotic, high-action scraps that lean on his durability — occasionally too much. But that’s great from a fan perspective. His submission instincts and sheer willingness to stay in the fire longer than most make him a must-see fighter no matter the opponent.
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That approach has kept Erosa relevant as an entertainer, but not yet as a contender. He leaves plenty of openings and is far too hittable for his own good, which is always the risk when your fights tend to spiral into madness.
Lerryan Douglas steps in here as the unknown variable, the kind of opponent who can either get overwhelmed by Erosa’s pace or capitalize on the chaos. If he’s composed and picks his spots, those defensive gaps are there to exploit. Known as “The Gunslinger,” he’s been pretty capable of doing exactly that in his career up to this point.
Still, this is Erosa’s world. If things get wild — and they usually do — he’s the one more comfortable navigating the mess. Call it a coin flip, but I’m taking “Juicy J” in a home game.
Pick: Erosa
185 pounds: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-120) vs. Yousri Belgaroui (+100)
Mansur Abdul-Malik’s game is pretty straightforward: Pressure, physicality and make it uncomfortable. He’s at his best when opponents don’t get time to think.
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Yousri Belgaroui is the opposite. The kickboxing specialist wants space and rhythm — the kind of fight where his striking can shine without disruption, and that bodes better for him in this matchup than oddsmakers expect. At the same time, he’s received plenty of respect, given how tight the moneylines are for this one.
This is also a decent step up from Abdul-Malik’s several past opponents, and his general ability to close distance and make a fight nasty may not present itself the same way. Belgaroui is primed to play spoiler on the undefeated prospect, and his sharpness has been honed through years of kickboxing experience.
It’s another tough fight to pick, but that’s a good thing. And in the end, Belgaroui has seen more variety in striking threats than his young foe.
Pick: Belgaroui
155 pounds: Terrance McKinney (-190) vs. Kyle Nelson (+155)
It’s a Terrance McKinney fight. Fights don’t need less assessment than his. Either he or Kyle Nelson is getting finished in the first round — most likely via strikes — and again, we’re practically flipping a coin.
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Nelson, while not the most durable guy in the world, has been a much more reliably durable fighter than McKinney — thanks to his style not being McKinney’s. So, yeah. Give me the Canadian here.
Pick: Nelson
Tofiq Musayev has a point to prove after coming up short in his UFC debut.
(Ed Mulholland via Getty Images)Preliminary Notes
Former RIZIN lightweight champion Tofiq Musayev enters his sophomore UFC appearance with another certified killer in his way. This time, it’s Ignacio Bahamondes, who also looks to rebound after a setback in his step-up clash against Rafael Fiziev. Musayev’s debut came under short-notice circumstances opposite a much larger — weight-missing — Myktybek Orolbai. It was a far cry performance from what Musayev is capable of, and a fight with Bahamondes promises some excellent action, regardless of the winner.
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Casey O’Neill is also back after another lengthy layoff, looking to reinsert herself into the women’s flyweight conversation. “King”‘ is still just 28 years old and has plenty left to prove in a division loaded with talented prospects. Although she’s been out for two years, she still enters the Octagon off a win, making her path back into notable matchups all the more realistic at a rapid rate.
Throw in names like Lance Gibson Jr., Chase Hooper, Navajo Stirling, Adrian Yanez and Ricky Simon, and UFC Seattle is rich with more quality than we’ve seen on recent Fight Night cards.
Quick picks:
Tofiq Musayev (+240) def. Ignacio Bahamondes (-300)
Lance Gibson Jr. (+230) def. Chase Hooper (-285)
Tyrell Fortune (-145) def. Marcin Tybura (+120)
Casey O’Neill (-115) def. Gabriella Fernandes (-105)
Navajo Stirling (-700) def. Bruno Lopes (+500)
Adrian Yañez (+120) def. Ricky Simón (-145)
Alexia Thainara (-800) def. Bruna Brasil (+550)